Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

[algae888]

this from 18z gfs i'm sure it will change with each new run..

[amugs]

Al something is going to brew and I said this a while ago that there would be a storm affecting the eastern part of the US following the Bearing Seas Rule. I like the look of this map but only wish it were the night before it hit!

CMC has the hot hand and is doing a better job modeling if you will the energy from the Northern Vorts to the STJ - so much atmospheric changes this time of the year that these models will be all over the place - always remember that the models are for guidance purposes only (if you date or marry one you get to hug one too like me!!!!!!!

My wife was a hand and face model - there will be no pictures sorry I do not put such on any site of family nor friends.

[Snow88]

0z GFS has the storm offshore for Turkey Day

[HectorO]

Could just be sunny and average for thanksgiving. If a storm does come, temps will be too warm for anything other than rain.

[amugs]

This is from another board by Earthlight (john) a very well respected and intelligent met

To the quickly accumulating amount of people panicking about the pattern evolution over the next few weeks, I have three words:

Stay the course.

The pattern and evolution of global circulations remains generally on track with forecasts from earlier this month, especially our winter forecast which was released back at the beginning of November. The progression of Wave 1/2 stratospheric warming events and their position remains on schedule (despite a generally failed and hyped first wave), and the response in both the Pacific and Atlantic remains excellent.

Beginning a week or so ago, a large Pacific ridge soared northward into Alaska and British Columbia as a result of an extra-tropical cyclone. But the extra-tropical cyclone wasn't the entire story...the pattern was amplified as it stood anyway. And so the ridge moving northward simply dislodged arctic cold to the south (go check your thermometers this morning). The AO and especially EPO took a nose dive, as did our mid level height and temperature departures.

Monthly SSTA's show a continued "textbook" +PDO pattern and Atlantic pre-NAO loading pattern setup. Those of you panicking about the NAO not going and staying negative over the past few days will have to take a step back from your computers --- because it probably won't do so for a few more weeks. The SSTA pattern we observed in October has a very correlation to -NAO winters, but almost all of them didn't develop fully until mid December.



Further aiding in our progression is the stratosphere. A much hyped Wave 1 event occurred but was not strong enough to disrupt or split the vortex. The Euro shows this vortex holding strong for the greater part of the next seven days. But then, as if directly on cue, a wave 2 event occurs. Zonal winds decrease and the 10mb EPV shifts poleward.

While I can't speak for the exact timing and accuracy of individual models, recent medium range forecasts play right into the forecast from several weeks ago. Much above normal snow cover over Siberia and the heat flux results in a step-down progression of a stratospheric warming event, eventually leading to a disrupted PV and changing pattern in about 3-5 weeks time.



Although these stratospheric events are unpredictable, here's what I anticipate over the next several weeks:

A moderating but changeable pattern compared to the current one will take over through the 1st of December. Pacific energy and waves will continue to crash into the West Coast, but the slower response from the Atlantic side will make it difficult to achieve any winter weather prospects in our area. Still, the anomalous cold will remain impressive in shots behind storm systems. The pattern changes wont' become extremely noticeable until the middle of December, when the response to a changing and disrupted PV will be felt.

With the MJO favorability increasing in-time with the effects from the changing stratosphere and increased high latitude blocking, early signals are for heightened potential of winter weather events in the Northeast US from December 15th onward, with indications suggestive of the active period continuing through at least January 1st.

While variance can be stressed and understood, it must be known that this isn't a forecast for significant snow -- it is impossible to tell the details of individualized events at this range. But the potential for snow -- and an active period of potential -- certainly seems to be heightened during this period as it stands right now.

[amugs]

CFS says the mild period for this time is going to be short lived - let's see if it verifies - points to what I posted by earthlight above

[amugs]

GFS has a huge GLC - WOW!!

[Snow88]

GFS still has the turkey day storm offshore

[Snow88]

Navgem has a coastal hugger

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2014111912&prod=prp&tau=144&set=All

[HectorO]

Mugs, sounds like a few years ago with the whole "wait another two weeks and the pattern will change" event all over again.

[sroc4]

Mugs, sounds like a few years ago with the whole "wait another two weeks and the pattern will change" event all over again.

We are nowhere near that yet. Plus set up totally different. Obv it could happen though

[algae888]

Mugs, sounds like a few years ago with the whole "wait another two weeks and the pattern will change" event all over again.

We are nowhere near that yet.  Plus set up totally different.  Obv it could happen though

hector first of all today is NOVEMBER 19th not december and we are just entering the latter part of fall. winter pattern hasn't set up yet although if you haven't noticed we have had our first taste of winter albeit without snow. record lows falling all over the place. November will be about 5* below normal by Saturday with a brief warm up (2-3 days at or slightly above normal) followed by below normal to close out the month. so this November will be one of the coldest on record or at least since the 60's. I can't ask for any thing more than that at this time of year. as far as snow goes, you know as well as I that everything has to fall into place just right. esp where we live close to warm ocean and it's effect. it's what makes living in the north east and forecasting the weather so exciting. yes we will be let down more than not but it goes with the territory. plus when we get a hit who has it better than us! unless you live near buffalo today.

[amugs]

Mugs, sounds like a few years ago with the whole "wait another two weeks and the pattern will change" event all over again.

No way Jose!! That is not the case with the pattern - that was a totally different set up but to each his own. We are relaxing for a good 7-12 days and then we reload

[algae888]

hey mugs that was a great article. what I hearing from a lot of mets even the mets that do not hype is that the winter pattern is going to kick in around mid dec. who knows any thing can happen but we have to wait to the end of December before getting worried.

[Frank_Wx]

Haven't been feeling well guys so thanks for keeping this going. Also mugs thanks for posting Johns long range outlook on here, I was gunna do it

[jmanley32]

Euro still has a very windy week next week with several periods pushing 50mph. That with the warmth won't b so bad but any chance this flips and we get snow?

Tis the season Frank feel better.

[Frank_Wx]

Euro still has a very windy week next week with several periods pushing 50mph. That with the warmth won't b so bad but any chance this flips and we get snow?

Tis the season Frank feel better.

Thanks! I can see winds next week being a problem. Looks like a potent front

[skinsfan1177]

I think we are in for a wild ride this winter here! Yes a short warm up looks to occur but whats important is how cold it got in November and also the storms that have been taking place. We have a shot to get good amounts of snow I don't know if my are will perform like last year but im liken what im hearing

[HectorO]

Mugs, sounds like a few years ago with the whole "wait another two weeks and the pattern will change" event all over again.

We are nowhere near that yet.  Plus set up totally different.  Obv it could happen though

hector first of all today is NOVEMBER 19th not december and we are just entering the latter part of fall. winter pattern hasn't set up yet although if you haven't noticed we have had our first taste of winter albeit without snow. record lows falling all over the place. November will be about 5* below normal by Saturday with a brief warm up (2-3 days at or slightly above normal) followed by below normal to close out the month. so this November will be one of the coldest on record or at least since the 60's. I can't ask for any thing more than that at this time of year. as far as snow goes, you know as well as I that everything has to fall into place just right. esp where we live close to warm ocean and it's effect. it's what makes living in the north east and forecasting the weather so exciting. yes we will be let down more than not but it goes with the territory. plus when we get a hit who has it better than us! unless you live near buffalo today.

Sir yes sir, sorry for offending you haha. Buffalo might get more this weekend. Snow plowing there is a full time job.

[jmanley32]

Cool Frank got my portable anemometer model wm4 and can't wait to test it out on a really windy day to report back to you guys. It is supposed to be one of the better ones, its water proof, also does depoint, temps humidity, only doesnt do baometer which kinda suxs. Yeah I have been talking about the high winds several days ago Euro had winds pushing gusts 65kts in some areas, has backed off to 50kts but that can always back track depending on how strong the front actually is. Does it come in waves because I noted two serious of winds 40-55 possibly more mon/tues/wed. Looks like thanksgiving may be wet but doesnt look like it could get cold. Maybe I am wrong.

[Snow88]

Looks like a cold Thankgiving on the 0z GFS. Nice ridge out west with a deep trough in the east. GFS also shows a system near the coast next weekend.

[amugs]

[amugs]

Way far out but the signal for the split of the PV and the arctic intrusion is showing signs of coming to fruition - day by day - we get this relaxation/moderation period and then as Emerald would say - BAM!! This is really crazy though - cryps it could be colder than last winter with this set up - hopefully not dry!!

[Frank_Wx]

To elaborate a bit on what that map Mugs posted means...

Part of the reason why I called for the end of December and the 1st half of January in my winter outlook to be the most active and possibly the snowiest, was due to the state of the Stratosphere. As you can see from the EURO (map Mugs posted thanks to earthlight), there is a strong signal for warming to take place in key areas, eastern Siberia and the EPO regions. This progresses into a wave 2 event and disrupts the PV while moving farther south. Expect a -AO/-NAO couplet to develop by mid to late December. P.S. this is also shown on the GFS and new GFS, not just the EURO.

[Frank_Wx]

Wave 1 of stratospheric warming is dead, did NOT lead to a SSW.

Wave 2 is starting up now over Asia

[amugs]

Thanks Frank fro elaborating and it looks like mid December we start to roll if all things align - until then we are in a transient pattern. Interesting how GFS shows EPO tanking and Euro shows just the opposite?? These models can drive you to drink!

[Frank_Wx]

They differ after Thanksgiving

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