Official Long Range Thread 4.0

[Frank_Wx]

Happy Halloween

Though this graphic is missing the last 2 days of October, the overall theme of the month in the northeast was above normal temp departures. Most areas probably fall into the +1 to +2 category, which is what I predicted earlier this month. Some will argue the upper air pattern was transient. I would agree with them. It just happened to be the warmer temp. departures beat out the colder ones.



The transience is going to continue into November. This weekend we will experience below normal temps. as a sharp mid-level trough moves in followed by the same ridge that is one of the culprits for shunning our coastal storm out to sea on Saturday. Under the trough, we may see temps. not get out of the 40's on Sunday. Under the ridge, expected to move in Tuesday, temps. will get into the 60's. By the end of next week, another trough moves in and the roller coaster ride of temperatures continues.

By the 2nd week of November, guidance is suggesting the pattern remains progressive. You can see that from the 00z GEFS below:



The 12z EURO OP was also suggesting the same thing with a large trough developing over the Aleutians. I think since the pattern is still in a state of flux with all these evolving phenomena's (+ENSO, warming Stratosphere, NH snow cover) it will continue to go through these mood swings that will pretty much keep us in a mainly above normal temp. regime with some below normal days mixed in.

Therefore, I am predicting Nov. to end +1.5 to +2.5 for the NYC region.

[docstox12]

Good call on the Oct. temps, Frank. Won't mind a milder month of Nov. to make it easier to clean up the leaves falling.Get the warm weather out of the way in Oct. and Nov. rather than Jan. and Feb.

[jmanley32]

Looks like we will have another storm to track for around the 7th time frame, hmmm 2012 snowstorm anyone? LOL I doubt we get early snow this year of any significance.

[algae888]

frank this weekend we are going to be about 10* below normal followed by a brief warm up and then another cold shot next weekend. so after 10 days we should be slightly below normal. if we end up nov. at +1.5 to 2.5 then the middle and end of nov will have to well above ave. are you calling for that? my thinking is that we will be at or a little below normal for month. possibly colder. why? starting to see pattern evolve into a winter time pattern. pna is looking to spike around the 10th and ao also looks to be tanking again around that time.

[algae888]

Looks like we will have another storm to track for around the 7th time frame, hmmm 2012 snowstorm anyone? LOL I doubt we get early snow this year of any significance.

yes jman cmc has another neg tilted trough with coastal low bombing out next Friday off nj coast. euro and gfs has weaker trough and low further north. something to watch.

[algae888]

the pna will be spiking and ao tanking. noa going from positive to neutral. so tele conn. maybe right for another coastal. I like how we are getting coastals to form. hopefully this is a sign for our winter season

[Frank_Wx]

One thing to keep in mind is that November is notorious for models to go a little haywire as they transition from Fall to Winter pattern. You may see drastic changes from run to run. My above normal forecast comes mainly from the unfavorable pattern in the Pacific, which Ithink will promote some ridging on the east coast

[jmanley32]

Frank what do you think about the possibility of a strom in next weekends time frame? Accuwx has rain and wing gusts to 60mph for the 9-10th, not sure where they are getting that from and usually their forecasts past one day change drastically.

[algae888]

The Euro weeklies have us warm through the end of November.I don't believe that's going to happen. Euro also had us warm for this week which is going to end up being near average. as Frank has stated models having a tough time with the changing pattern.

[Frank_Wx]

Well if the GEFS and EURO ENS are right, then a -EPO/+PNA pattern returns after the 1st week of November 

The ECMWF Ens 

[Frank_Wx]

That's the same pattern that drove our winter last season.

[sroc4]

Watch for a MECS in mid Nov

[Frank_Wx]

Scott going bold. Watch out people.

[jmanley32]

Scott was that a joke or are u serious? You god my blood percolating on that one, that would be pretty rare wouldn't it?

[algae888]

latest snow cover for north america and eurasia. as of yesterday

http://www.climate4you.com/SnowCover.htm

besides expansive snow cover in Eurasia most of Canada now snow covered. the implications of this (esp the Canadian snow cover) is that cold air coming south should not modify as much as usual and will we likely feel the brunt of the cold air.

[sroc4]

Scott was that a joke or are u serious?  You god my blood percolating on that one, that would be pretty rare wouldn't it?

Very serious.  A signal for one is percolating but still a LOONNNGGG way off.  I wouldnt go beyond that at this stage obviously. For now monitor the H5 anomaly charts for the consistency for the signal.

[algae888]

if you follow the snow cover starting from Alaska and draw a line through it diagonally it looks like it's making a bee line right towards us. wonder if that will influence the air flow at all? would be great for us.

[Frank_Wx]

Madonne. Compared to last year this is nuts

[jmanley32]

A mecs snowstorm or mecs unsure of precip type? So when around 15 to 20th timeframe? I know it's just signals but wanted to know what timeframe ur seeing these signals. U go for the god scott!

[algae888]

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/model_loops/12zgfs_namer_pcp.php

todays 12z gfs hr 204.  hmmm!

[Dunnzoo]

Ugh...friggin' GFS again.....I'll wait until the 7th to look at that again! lol

[jmanley32]

LOL Dunzoo, yeah right, there is our possible MECS! Anyways Look at the snow for this storm crazy! Is this really possible Boston and MA? Man my family is all there lucky!

[jmanley32]

Oh boy Al another week of tracking, this is going to be one tiring season I feel! But hopefully worth it!

[SoulSingMG]

Yup. Another interesting week of model hunting. The buzz has already started on social media about 'GFS showing strong coastal low over NYC that if track deviated east, would be epic.'

[rb924119]

Frank, I've been watching the Canadian snow cover as well. I'd like to see a little less in Alaska/western Canada to help really start building the positive temperature anomalies there forcing early-season ridging. I'm waiting for the Rutgers Snow Lab to finish processing the monthly data for October for comparison of this year to last. If it matches up fairly well, I think we'd better watch out. Certainly seems like the global models are beginning to pick up on the eastern Canadian snow cover with what looks like persistent troughing over the area setting up for next week. Wanna be sure of the snow anomalies first before getting excited for the rest of the season though lmao

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