Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

by **amugs** Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:30 pm

CONUS goes into the ice box right after xmas on global models - cmc, gfs and euro!!

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 13, 2014 6:42 pm

mugs still think the 21/22nd a good shot at snow and the xmas, or are u now thinking more after like u just stated. Or are you just saying thats when prolonged cold will kick in? GFS has both storms warm (but its your evil 18z lol)

by **jmanley32** Sat Dec 13, 2014 10:32 pm

NWS Upton disco, skip to bottom for good stuff.

THE HIGH WILL PASS TO THE EAST ON SAT...THEN THE TIMING OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...ADVERTISED BY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR SOME
TIME NOW TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...IS UNCERTAIN...AND
COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY PER SLOWER/STRONGER 12Z ECMWF.
AT THIS TIME FAVOR A TIMING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE 00Z
ECMWF...WITH CHANCE POP ARRIVING SAT AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
SAT NIGHT. P-TYPE IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...AND A LOT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER THE DEPARTING HIGH HANGS IN LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP PROVIDING
COLD AIR DURING THE EVENT. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE HAVE FCST EITHER
RAIN OR SNOW SAT AFTERNOON CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.

by **Snow88** Sun Dec 14, 2014 1:42 am

Another big coastal storm for next weekend on the Euro

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 14, 2014 1:49 am

Mo kidding snow, you should see the snow totals map! MECS! People to the N/E/S of NYC would not be happy if this run happened, luckily it will change at least 10-12 more runs.

by **Snow88** Sun Dec 14, 2014 1:56 am

jmanley32 wrote:Mo kidding snow, you should see the snow totals map! MECS! People to the N/E/S of NYC would not be happy if this run happened, luckily it will change at least 10-12 more runs.

NYC sees 6+ on this run. I would be thrilled.

by **jmanley32** Sun Dec 14, 2014 1:58 am

Yes NYC sees 6-12, just west into NJ 12-16. East of NYC has a super sharp cutoff and LI gets next to nothing...errr some people won't like to hear that, but as I said it will change, this really bombs out over the ocean to 982mb with winds gusting to near 80mph. If it can bomb out earlier we would see a lot more.

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