Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

[amugs]

Thanks Frank fro elaborating and it looks like mid December we start to roll if all things align - until then we are in a transient pattern. Interesting how GFS shows EPO tanking and Euro shows just the opposite?? These models can drive you to drink!

[Frank_Wx]

They differ after Thanksgiving

[sroc4]

Wave 1 of stratospheric warming is dead, did NOT lead to a SSW.

Wave 2 is starting up now over Asia

Be willing to bet Nuri played a huge roll in this

[sroc4]

Thanks Frank fro elaborating and it looks like mid December we start to roll if all things align - until then we are in a transient pattern. Interesting how GFS shows EPO tanking  and Euro shows just the opposite?? These models can drive you to drink!

Keep in mind mugs there is alot of evolution taking place between now and the first week to two of Dec. IE: the effects of the Strat warming taking place will not be seen down at level of the Trop for 2-3weeks. As a result the models will all have all sorts of probs recognizing how it all plays out in the LR. Expect back and forth solns in the LR. Save those images somewhere on your PC so this time next week you can do a side by side comparison to see how they evolve. I expect alot of waffling in the long range teleconnections models runs, MJO forecast etc until we lock into the pattern. During a transition don't chase the long range.

[amugs]

Thanks Frank fro elaborating and it looks like mid December we start to roll if all things align - until then we are in a transient pattern. Interesting how GFS shows EPO tanking  and Euro shows just the opposite?? These models can drive you to drink!

Keep in mind mugs there is alot of evolution taking place between now and the first week to two of Dec.  IE: the effects of the Strat warming taking place will not be seen down at level of the Trop for 2-3weeks.  As a result the models will all have all sorts of probs recognizing how it all plays out in the LR.  Expect back and forth solns in the LR.  Save those images somewhere on your PC so this time next week you can do a side by side comparison to see how they evolve.  I expect alot of waffling in the long range teleconnections models runs, MJO forecast etc until we lock into the pattern.  During a transition don't chase the long range.  

Scott excellent points stated and I am not at all taking the LR forecasting here verbatim but just showing that both global models are in the state of flux/confusion with this as you said - so much happening in our atmosphere that they will not get a handle on it and great point on saving these images. Listening to a guy online called the curious observer and he is saying the SSW is going to be at an unprecedented level but the Kelvin Waves that are heading east from the Sub Asian Continent are going to head east and by the time early/mid December they should be affecting the CONUS - know what this and how it will effect our weather remains to be seen but he states that the last time in the winter of 10-11 we had the same flux of waves and it caused strong storms of the CONUS - doesn't necessarily equal snow but strong storms - I am betting that we see MECS or HECS as Frank has said during this time frame going forward - exciting to say the least and very interesting. This a science if you will that is in its infancy and IMO probably has a bigger influence on our weather than we know or give credit too.

[jmanley32]

Mugs 12z Euro has a 6-12 inch snowfall (of course lowest being near coast around 29th, if this holds you are def king snow weenie, close enough to the time frame you spoke of weeks back. We will see way too early to tell now, I believe thisis the first run to show this outcome. Frank I did note the winds for early next week on Euro have been weakened, hence like you said you do not see a issue as of now, but will def keep watch.

[algae888]

mugs big difference in ensemble mean 10 days out. as you guys have stated models having hard time figuring out what's next. euro looks nice with way above normal heights over Alaska and nice ridge. what's interesting to me is that the euro looks like it has a strongly neg. AO while the gfs has AO soaring same time frame.

[sroc4]

GFS is confused IMO. It has been all over with the long range esp during times of flux. I wonder if the Chinese hacking our weather system had anything to do with it.

[algae888]

reyno on late next week potential....

"just think the ingredients r there late nxt wk. front side of cold push as energy drops in behind it. watch models change with this each day"

steve d response....

"Certainly potential. Question of timing and position of trough axis. Sub Tropical mischief as well. My only question is if the blocking in NW Atlantic lines up. Not convinced yet."

[jmanley32]

Hmm could it be our first secs? Of c ouse I'm going to be in central ct we better get snow if u guys do. Lol

[jmanley32]

People def sniffing around end of next week, going to be interesting.  As rayno saiys in his video the upper 500mb pieces are there does it come together?  Euro has quite a system, but this will change a lot and the warm system coming mon-wed will probably have a lot to do with how the end of the week happens.  I certainly would not compain about a post thanksgiving big storm.  Of course travelers will.

[Snow88]

Larry Cosgrove

I fully believe the ECMWF model suite with its blocking pattern into Alaska, a +PNA/-EPO hybrid that teleconnects well with a full-latitude trough and Arctic intrusion which reaches Mexico and Central America. Will there be a storm with this powerful cold shot. Yes, and although the track forecast this far out is uncertain, there is a credible notion that a Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard trajectory may be realized. With monstrous cold unheard of for Thanksgiving weekend."

[Frank_Wx]

I mentioned this storm in my Thanksgiving thread. It does bare monitoring for sure.

[Snow88]

Light snow for Philly,DC and NYC on Saturday

[NjWeatherGuy]

Doesn't this look familiar? 12z EURO

[Frank_Wx]

That 29th-1st time frame looking very interesting...hmmmmmm

[Snow88]

Cold run after the brief warmup next week.

[NjWeatherGuy]

That 29th-1st time frame looking very interesting...hmmmmmm

Looks very similar to some of last years setups huh? Gonna be a long week...

[Frank_Wx]

That 29th-1st time frame looking very interesting...hmmmmmm

Looks very similar to some of last years setups huh? Gonna be a long week...

Yea, cold really entrenches itself into the region. Remember all those high-ratio snowfalls last year? Geez. Like others have stated, pieces are there at H5 (definitely), just a matter of if they come together or not.

[NjWeatherGuy]

That 29th-1st time frame looking very interesting...hmmmmmm

Looks very similar to some of last years setups huh? Gonna be a long week...

Yea, cold really entrenches itself into the region. Remember all those high-ratio snowfalls last year? Geez. Like others have stated, pieces are there at H5 (definitely), just a matter of if they come together or not.

Check out my post in the obs thread, just came upon an article that said the morning of the 18th was the coldest in America since 1976 with all 50 states reporting at least one location below freezing. Even more remarkable that its happening in November, we may have an h- word winter coming...

[Frank_Wx]

1976 was one of my analog year for the upcoming winter, interesting.

[Snow88]

0z GGEM shows a coastal storm for Wednesday. 850's are cold enough for the coast but surface might be iffy.

[algae888]

frank and tom in 1976 you young guys weren't around for that but I remember it clearly. I was 15 years old and on my off days from school I would go with my father to the fulton fish market in lower manhattan. it was brutal. I remember the watch tower time/temp sign on the Brooklyn side and many days it read below zero. only bad thing that year was that Norfolk VA. was the snow capital of the east coast as storms were suppressed.

[Frank_Wx]

frank and tom in 1976 you young guys weren't around for that  but I remember it clearly. I was 15 years old and on my off days from school I would go with my father to the fulton fish market in lower manhattan. it was brutal. I remember the watch tower time/temp sign on the Brooklyn side and many days it read below zero. only bad thing that year was that Norfolk VA. was the snow capital of the east coast as storms were suppressed.

Yea everything was probably suppressed south. Hey, you never know. If another super -AO develops along with a -NAO that usually means cold&dry, but the reason why I am not worrying too much about that now is due to the Nino developing.

[algae888]

frank was 1976 a nino year?

[Frank_Wx]

frank was 1976 a nino year?

Yea it was, a weak Nino. So...scratch what I said before. Lol

[HectorO]

Has anyone been paying attention to what's going on up in Buffalo New York. I don't care how much you love snow that is pure hell. They are paralyzed and can't even leave the house. 2014 and we should have some better way of removing snow.

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