12/9-12/10 Coastal Storm Observations

Yeah this was certainly interesting; a GREAT learning experience though. When this happens again, I can say that I'll be prepared to give the warm air advection much more credit, and weigh it much more heavily than the vertical velocities and precipitation rates. As we just had demonstrated for us today, those ascent rates cannot overcome strong low level WAA in a marginal temperature profile, especially when the closed lows are either directly overhead or just east of the region. Ok Mother Nature, you may be up 1-0 on this one, but I think I can say with certainty, we'll get ya back :p

Idk if you guys would be interested, and it would probably take me a little to get it out, but for those of us who would like to see why everybody was so warm, I could probably put together a small case study concerning just the evolution of the temperature profile in the Northeast; though I think most (if not all) of us understand what happened. Let me know. Btw, has anybody tried accessing the case study I put up for the Feb. 2010 blizzard? Can you get to it, or should I try putting it up again? Let me know about both of these, and if anybody would be interested. Thanks, and have a great night all!!!!

rb924119 wrote:Idk if you guys would be interested, and it would probably take me a little to get it out, but for those of us who would like to see why everybody was so warm, I could probably put together a small case study concerning just the evolution of the temperature profile in the Northeast; though I think most (if not all) of us understand what happened. Let me know. Btw, has anybody tried accessing the case study I put up for the Feb. 2010 blizzard? Can you get to it, or should I try putting it up again? Let me know about both of these, and if anybody would be interested. Thanks, and have a great night all!!!!

I'm sure all of us would appreciate it. As for your case study, I was required to create a dropbox account. Might be better off uploading it to a Google Doc then just sharing the link with us.

Also...I do not think you have to look very far to see why this storm turned out to be a bust. Much of it has to do with the poor performance of the short range models.

Look at where 00z EURO had the low last night...and where it actually ended up



In fact, there were numerous models showing the low stall south of LI. It did NOT happen. Instead, it continues into CT. HUGE bust by ALL the models. No wonder why everyone had different forecasts

light rain 38*. precip starting to fill in around nyc metro. should be cold enough for snow by this afternoon. the question is how much moisture is available

algae888 wrote:light rain 38*. precip starting to fill in around nyc metro. should be cold enough for snow by this afternoon. the question is how much moisture is available

Agreed Al. Latest Hi Res NAM shows a nice heavy band for W LI NYC the Lower HV and N NJ later this eve as the 850mb LP intensifies and the 850 temps tank. You and Jamn look to be in a great spotif that verifies. All eyes on the radar because these convective bands will pop up in only a few hrs notice
[img][/img]

33 degrees and finally seeing some light snow.

Yesterday was just freezing rain in the am and on and off light rain the rest of the day. No accumulations of snow. It just changed in the last hour. Unfortunately I'm off to Brroklyn now and most likely won't see snow the rest of the day.

Here Frank, and anybody else who is interested; try this and let me know if works any better. And Frank, I'll try to get it out as soon as I can, but Idk exactly when that will be because I need to retrieve/analyze the data. But I'll try lol

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Byod2Sk27yNYdE1mVDVRNjAxN2s/view?usp=sharing

sroc4 wrote:

algae888 wrote:light rain 38*. precip starting to fill in around nyc metro. should be cold enough for snow by this afternoon. the question is how much moisture is available

Agreed Al.  Latest Hi Res NAM shows a nice heavy band for W LI NYC the Lower HV and N NJ later this eve as the 850mb LP intensifies and the 850 temps tank.  You and Jamn look to be in a great spotif that verifies.  All eyes on the radar because these convective bands will pop up in only a few hrs notice
" />

That's a sweet looking radar, very heavy area of snow. I may not drive to school if that comes around 5pm. We shall see how it is.

If that rotates like it looks like it would on that outcome it could last a long time.

12z lookin good Al, 6 hr period of snow sweet.

38* and a cold drizzle here. it has picked up in intensity in the last half hour or so but i dont think anything is going to come out of it snow wise.

mako460 wrote:38* and a cold drizzle here.  it has picked up in intensity in the last half hour or so but i dont think anything is going to come out of it snow wise.

I think as the day progresses we will start to see change over esp if the precip gets heavy.  Look at how cold the current 850mb temps are.  The center of the 850mb LP is nearly stationary, and the 700mb and 500mb LP centers look like they are trying to vertically stack. That is why we are seeing the 850's crash.  This system is now manufacturing its own cold air in the mid layers.
850mb
 
700mb:

500mb


With the 850's crashing and the LP centers stacking the atmosphere is going to remain very unstable.  Look at the moisture fetch coming on shore in NE.  Notice the precip shield is trying to fill in over western NY and CT and the whole thing is rotating counter clockwise around the axis which seems centered just east of LI.  As that moisture fetch comes into the colder air to on the western side of the circulation expect convective banding to develop. Today and tonight could get real intersting for some.  Keep watching that radar.

Oh I am sroc, I am, frame by frame lol, if that drops south and then pulls east we could be in for a decent duration snow.

Light snow here, upper 30s though.

Skins and Ace you should get in on this as well.  Boundary layers are still mid- upper 30's but dynamics in heavier bands should have no prob overcoming all the way to the coast.  
" />

sroc4 wrote:Skins and Ace you should get in on this as well.  Boundary layers are still mid- upper 30's but dynamics in heavier bands should have no prob overcoming all the way to the coast.  
" />

Been to busy to look at the radar all day and I'm presentlly surprised haha. 41 now but 925 and 850s are so cold it shouldn't be a problem as you mentioned

Damn my sister up in Syracuse has WSW for 18-24 higher elevations and 5-8 through 7am tomorrow and most of this from late last night, she says over 6 there right now. tthis big band rotating, could head in this direction eventually.

That needs to rotate just a bit more North and east for us to be in it. The band coming down from north has huge amounts, and the center is building in, wouldn't be surprised if this continues to see unexpected advisories issued.

Down to 37 from 40 this morning.

Snow flurries here in norwood nj now

Aiosamoney21 wrote:Snow flurries here in norwood nj now

Where is Norwood?

Frank it looks like the big band to the west is filling in and could rotate through giving a lot of people a heavier time of some snow for a decent amount of time, what do you think?

Just saw my first flakes mixing in here on the north shore of Long Island on the Queens Nassau border. Been drizzling steady for about an hour and still is but definitely a few flakes mixed in.

The temps have been slowly dropping steadily, syo I think we all see something to remind us of what is to come, but your also in a very warm area, move over here : ) Of course when you get the right positioning you get more than we do because we are kinda stuffed In the corner.

Norwood is in north east bergen county I like 15 from Amugs in hillsdale and Dunzoo in westwood

jmanley32 wrote:Frank it looks like the big band to the west is filling in and could rotate through giving a lot of people a heavier time of some snow for a decent amount of time, what do you think?

This is an impressive band for sure



Again, not much in accumulation unless you live in the areas I have in the scroll...but nice to see nonetheless