General Weather Discussions/Observations

Pouring

What a nasty day. Dreary...fog...damp...

According to the following link it hit 72 in central park today.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html

Everyone meet me in the chat box found at the bottom of the home page tonight at 9!

Just heard that the Euro weeklies are cold from week 1- week 4 with a positive pna and - NAO

Besutiful day today...here is my 5-day outlook...

http://epawablogs.com/northern-new-jersey-forecast-region/

Latest EURO shows temps near 0 degrees for Wednesday of this week. Wednesday morning that is, and highs in the single digits Thursday. Wow!

Euro shows a snowstorm for our area end of next week. Love it.

JMA

http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif

That's the best joke I've heard in a while LMAO. JK but seriously the JMA is pretty much useless. Overdoes precip several times and has an over amplified bias.

Frank,

I hope not onteh weekend - big surprise bday party for my wife's 1st cousin up in Sparta (Sussex County) Saturday. I know it is a week away but anyway. What is the story for Tues-Wed?I looked at the gfs model this afternoon and it showed a pretty good storm off the coast actually ots - I hope it can trend west but it doesn't look so good. Anyway thnaks for the updates and I will heed the warning for the 26th time frame.

Hey Tom even a broken clock is right twice a day. Of course I would like to see some agreement amongst some of the more reliable models.

Yeah I know, I'm not excited over this threat yet, like to see the GFS and EURO to get onboard because those two when together are usually a good consensus.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:That's the best joke I've heard in a while LMAO. JK but seriously the JMA is pretty much useless. Overdoes precip several times and has an over amplified bias.

Two things:

1. JMA is 3rd best in verification. Euro being #1 and UKMET being #2.

2. JMA does not overdo precip. It's shown in 12-hour increments, not 3 or 6 like other models.

The JMA solution is very much on the table.

amugs wrote:Frank,

I hope not onteh weekend - big surprise bday party for my wife's 1st cousin up in Sparta (Sussex County) Saturday. I know it is a week away but anyway. What is the story for Tues-Wed?I looked at the gfs model this afternoon and it showed a pretty good storm off the coast actually ots - I hope it can trend west but it doesn't look so good. Anyway thnaks for the updates and I will heed the warning for the 26th time frame.

Tuesday-Wednesday is losing momentum but still on the table. If the vort sets up in the right place, we could see a norlun trough type scenario. But it's losing consistency, so I'm beginning to think we'll just stay very cold those days. Especially Wednesday.

Thanks for the update and friggid cold it looks - save the heat from this weekend for next week guys cause your furnance isn't going to work overtime!! By the way, from a freind of mine who works for PSE&G - drain a buckt or two of water from your furnace before this cold spell - for various reaons but one your furnace will be more efficient in heating your home and two this sounds crazy but you will have to crack a window by or in the furnace room to help with its efficiency as well - not all day but for a few hours if you could, it needs frsh air. Unless you live next to your furnace it really won't matter but draining a bucket or two of the sediment in the furnace will do a world of good.

Friendly tip!

7-day outlook. Cold cold cold

http://epawablogs.com/northern-new-jersey-forecast-region/

For the 26th storm...

Saw the latest 12z trends today. I like where we are at. No one is in a bullseye and the American models differ slightly from the other globals. They differ in how they handle the northern stream vort and they also differ with the degree to the amount of blocking there could be. Both are critical aspects of determining the evolution of the storm, and I feel that will not get resolved until Monday. I wouldn't pay too much attention to temps yet either, at the 925mb or 850mb levels just yet. We are going to see extremely cold temps prior to this storm and models, in general, have a warm bias to only see trend colder as we approach the time period. We'll see where 00z runs take us tonight...

EURO brought back the 2-low solution. Looked like 12z GFS.

Uhg...

Model Mayhem.

can someone please post what the nam is showing for mon into tues storm

Good morning...models are still spitting out 1-3 inches of snow Monday night. There will probably be a snow map from us later this afternoon. As for the bigger storm late next week, check out what the NWS in Upton had to say:

" SLIGHT MODERATION TO THIS PATTERN WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ENTERS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT IT IS NOT LONG BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN SLIDES TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR
A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO END THE WEEK/START THE
WEEKEND AS A RESULT. BUT BECAUSE THE ENERGY FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
IN THE BERING SEA AND NOT EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE WEST COAST
TILL MIDWEEK THERE IS AN ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS
AT THIS TIME. THIS IS BORNE OUT BY THE STILL WIDE RANGE OF MEDIUM
RANGE OPERATIONAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS."

Translation: The piece of energy that we need to know exactly where the storm will track is still far away from the U.S. so the models are going to struggle until Tuesday. We have to be patient for that storm...many unknowns.

Here you go skins...nam precip thru Tuesday

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/06znamp24066.gif

For the storm late week, the 12z GFS went north and warmer looking like the 0z EURO last night, mix to rain. Have we seen this before?

still plenty of time to change

Yeah I know but the fact that these types of storms tend to favor the interior I'm not liking the look of this, feels like the past few storms.

12z GFS has 5-6in for u tom

Yeah 12 gfs run had the phase occur too early over the Ohio valley. Need that southern energy to slide a bit further east and maybe a tad south before the phase for the coast to get it good. The diff pieces to that puzzle have not made it ashore the west coast yet, so still time to change, but I agree we have def seen this show before. Hopefully the ending will be diff this time (fingers crossed)