General Weather Discussions/Observations

The next 2 weeks look wet in one form or another, so that seems to be pretty accurate, not like previous maps they put out...we are usually EC, haha

IMO under 100 hours is worth noting, it's just been useless going out further than than, these models are horrible, as far as the MJO. Hopefully we can get something to develop while it's in the good phases before it moves quickly to 1. NAO looking to remain slightly positive so that's not great. PNA will be about neutral. AO is going to trend highly positive which is not great in the short term.

I'm pretty much done tracking tomorrows system. A general coating to 2 inches is probably with southern areas getting patches of 3 inch amounts. Furthest south you live, more snow you'll get.

Next week, GFS OP is on its own with the train of cutters idea. The ensembles disagree, in fact stay cold through most of their run. The GGEM and EURO also look different.

Below is the 12z EURO 500mb map. A nice ridge develops in the west and there is a trough over the northeast. Notice how the cold is not as intense as it is this week. The PV is displaced further northwest but there is an area of High Pressure over the GL.

There is also...a storm signal.

What comes out of it remains to be seen. I definitely do not think it will cut given the western ridge, MJO propagation, and pool of arctic air dug into south-central and eastern Canada. Do NOT look at the GFS OP. Terrible model. Look at ensembles and non-American models.

Overall, a coating to 2 inches was the general range of accumulations. The weekend will remain dry with plenty of sunshine. Monday, a weak wave of disturbance will come through and bring some rain, snow, and freezing rain. Could be icing situations we'll have to deal with, but more info on this tomorrow. Tuesday-Wednesday will be mild and rainy. Temps in the upper 40's to low 50's. by the end of next week, we are back in a cold regime for another long stretch of time. So consider the warmup for those 3 days next week a temporary lull in the action. Some rumors already flying about another potential storm end of next week. I won't comment much on this until beginning of next week.

Good idea since we all got our hopes up and were excited over a storm that never came to fruition. Patience is key.

This is turning into quite a storm on the models...

Gulf moisture interacting with a strong cold front. Ahead of the cold front mild temps, behind it arctic air. The interaction = Boom and severe weather will occur. This could get interesting...

Frank, looking at a couple of maps it is showing the possibility of some back end snow (showers and maybe even a squall) from this system. Also read that this cold to fiollow late week (weekend) will be more entrenched and last into mid feb - I hope they are right. Do you see the same?

amugs wrote:Frank, looking at a couple of maps it is showing the possibility of some back end snow (showers and maybe even a squall) from this system. Also read that this cold to fiollow late week (weekend) will be more entrenched and last into mid feb - I hope they are right. Do you see the same?

There will not be backend snow. Maybe in interior sections, but we will just see thunderstorms and rain. By the time the cold air arrives, the precip will be gone. As for the upcoming cold blast, it's going to last longer than the last one BUT it will not be as harsh. I'm thinking it starts in the mid 20's but moderates to more seasonal temps by the middle of next week. The upcoming weekend though definitely looks cold.

Looking over things again this morning, there probably will NOT be severe weather for our area Wednesday. CAPE values are low, meaning instability is low. Atmosphere is not conducive enough for severe weather. There could be some thunderstorms embedded in the cold front with some gusty winds, but nothing major.

It's hard to get severe weather this time of year, however with the way things are looking IMO we can't rule out some lightning and thunder in that heavy rain. CAPE indeces are low however Showalter values are raised which is a good thing for storms.

GFS showing snow showers for Sunday

Yet another minor event, January is done, lets hope for a Godzilla to emerge out of the potential events in February!

Morning run of the GFS still has the light event Sunday and bigger, Miller B, storm next week.

Still some minor snow events on the table for this Friday and Sunday. Larger threat looming for Tuesday.

The cold front is marching east and will arrive in our area this afternoon. Please click http://epawablogs.com/northern-new-jersey-forecast-region/ to read my discussion on what I have to say about this storm. Thick fog out there this morning. Please drive carefully.

Positive trends on the models tonight. Super Bowl Sunday could bring a surprising few inches of snow to our area. We'll see if 12z models keep up with the latest trend of a storm developing just off our coast and throwing snow back at us.

So here is the general set up for Sunday into Monday. This has been the theme ALL winter long. There have been at least 4-5 storms that set up like this so far this winter. The northern energy has typically taken a more west to east track instead of digging in more once it reaches the great lakes region. The southern branch energy takes a very progressive east/northeast track until it gets into the red circled are. It is only then that it turns more north. This general pattern has been occurring all winter. The two main reasons for this has been the NAO and the PNA. In the east the NAO has only been neg for short bursts before returning to neutral or slight pos. When it is neg and even neutral it has been east based meaning the block that helps to turn the jet stream south to north remains too far to our east (red circle on the image is where the jet turns north). That means that the general flow remains progressive off the east coast causing the southern energy to escape to our south and east, and the northern energy escaping to our north. Their interaction doesn't occur until it is too late for the east coast. If the NAO was more west based that red circle would shift west and the southern energy would head in a more north track along the coast instead of OTS.
The PNA in the west has been positive and a ridge has been there but the timing of the northern energy trying to dig in has been off. Meaning that as the northern energy digs in the PNA breaks down some such that it cannot really dig as it drops into the western great lakes region. At that location because the ridge in the west is not steep enough to over come the progressive flow along the east coast so the northern energy begins its trek west to east as it enters the CONUS instead of diving in a little more south and east to trigger an earlier interaction (phase) with the southern energy. The western ridge has not been strong enough to overcome the progressive flow along the east coast.

I will leave you with this. This winter along the east coast has been not much more than 100-200miles from a a potential epic winter. If the northern energy were allowed to dig in 100-200 miles more south and east, or if the southern energy where to start its more north to northeast turn 100-200 miles further west there would be waaaaaayy more precip that would have affected the NE states. All in all this winter has been great....for the fish who live OTS to our east. It has been very active all season and it really has been nothing more than a near miss all season. Hopefully we can connect at least once this season. We shall see.

https://2img.net/r/ihimizer/img41/4456/soclosex.png

Well explained - the winter of almost, could have beens = sucks!! Well maybe Mother Nature is getting things in gear for the next winter or two but I would still like to get a moderate or big snowstorm this winter. Thanks for the excellent info.

Well, even though we can't put any stock in the models out past 100hrs or so, i can't help but look at the Valentines Day potential and hope it's our one time when "northern meets southern at just the right time" for the winter of 2012-2013 - hate seeing the grass in Feb...

Euro next weekend???

I am not even going to bother making threads for the two clippers coming up this week.

Here is Monday night...

Clipper tonight will bring some snow showers. Coating to an inch possible.

My map that I created for Tonight's clipper for the facebook page Wild About Weather that I post for
http://www.wildaboutweather.com/alex-iannone.html

Mets2695 wrote:My map that I created for Tonight's clipper for the facebook page Wild About Weather that I post for
http://www.wildaboutweather.com/alex-iannone.html

Nice! I agree

What will be the snow totals for The Stoudsburg area in Eastern Pa. ?