General Weather Discussions/Observations

12z GFS has 5-6in for u tom

Yeah 12 gfs run had the phase occur too early over the Ohio valley. Need that southern energy to slide a bit further east and maybe a tad south before the phase for the coast to get it good. The diff pieces to that puzzle have not made it ashore the west coast yet, so still time to change, but I agree we have def seen this show before. Hopefully the ending will be diff this time (fingers crossed)

Alex that's a BS clown map, thermal profiles don't support that, above freezing in the upper levels and at the surface, it's a rain run, just look at the position of the LP. Terrible.

Its not all rain according to mets on FB

No it's mix to rain.

Tom there would be front end snow with this type of set up. Im not saying it would be a lot tho. Its not going to be that easy to push this cold air mass out of the way. I see this storm track south of us and bringing us mostly frozen precip as of now.

Euro also cuts the system to our west...actually pretty far to our west. Dont buy it yet.

I know there will be a little front end snow, my issue is that a storm track to our NW will usually dislodge the cold air pretty fast due to a SW flow over our area bringing in warm air, right now the GFS and EURO are showing that north of us storm track which IMO is terrible for snow.

Well yea. a storm track to our NW is always bad for snow. Lol

Latest on storm potential for this week from DT/wxrisk: JAN 25 SNOWSTORM EVENT NOW MUCH MORE LIKELY AS ALL MODELS SHIFT TO THE NORTH...

This looks like a Chicago IND OH PA NJ NYC NY State and NEW ENGLAND EVENT... several inches possible with high snow ratios. Bitter cold to follow over all of the eastern third of the country behind this Low

THEREFORE threat of snow to MD VA WVA JAN 25 is much reduced

DETAILS/ weather Geek talk :

Over the last 18 hours of all the models have now shifted to more northern track that shift..all occurring on DIFFERENT Models... ...ALL at the same time.. MEANs something. The 0z
(1am) Sunday run of the European model and now this brand new 12z Sunday afternoon run of the European model ...closely matches the last 2 runs of the GFS.... in taking the strong area of LOW pressure coming out of the Midwest.. NORTH of the PA MD border .

We can see that on the latest run of the European model here and I'll go into more detail tonight on the video. ----DT

Everyone please read my discussion for this morning. It is detailed and it highlightes my thought's on the late week storm

http://epawablogs.com/northern-new-jersey-forecast-region/

It is wayyyy too cold for me today. My goodness.

Frank_Wx wrote:It is wayyyy too cold for me today. My goodness.

When you buy your car or SUV, make sure you get heated seats, they are the best.

labgirl wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:It is wayyyy too cold for me today. My goodness.

When you buy your car or SUV, make sure you get heated seats, they are the best.

Definitely. Lol

Join the chat room people!!!

Currently 11 degrees ..dew point -12.

MJO from the Euro

*Taken from what I wrote on the accu-weather chat board*

Well, looking at the teleconnections, after waiting for months, we now finally have what I like to call "The Winter Storm Tri-fecta" as we have a -NAO, -AO, and +PNA. However, It seems on the short range that by the time this system comes to the east on Friday, the PNA will go negative thus breaking down our potential snowstorm...

Our next storm to track...looks like a Miller A that develops at the tail end of a cold front. I doubt it gets this extreme. Heck, I doubt a Miller A even develops. But it is under 200 hours and worth noting.

Something to watch of course but as the old salty at work I call the snow queen would say "when it is cold it doesn't snow and when it finally warms up we get a storm" but let's not get ahead of ourselves like you said it is 8 days away and we now what can happen between now and then with our luck so far but let's keep a positive, wishfull outlook! Miller A.

0z Euro and GFS agree on the pattern reloading after the brief warmup

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Mt Holly

"THE TELECONNECTION PATTERNS ARE ALL OUTLOOKED TO BECOME
MILDER NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT THIS APPEARS TO BE A LULL ON THE
COLD ROAD AS THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION IS OUTLOOKED TO BE
ENTERING THE COLDEST AND STRONGEST CORRELATION PHASE (FOR COLD) TO
START FEBRUARY."

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

That is interesting. Honestly, if the MJO does not help our Pacific set-up, we're screwed. The Pacific is in turmoil right now and we need to stop those trains of vorts from crashing into the Pac NW and disrupting any ridge that tries to form.

I have hope for February if the MJO is right. A strong magnitude in 8 going into 1 is what the east needs for snow.

Here is the latest Euro MJO plots



Going into phase 8 and then phase 1. Great phases for the east if we want to see snow.

Thats phenomenal... now lets see if it works. Historical data says it will

The next 2 weeks look wet in one form or another, so that seems to be pretty accurate, not like previous maps they put out...we are usually EC, haha