Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

FWIW SREFs came further north again

I'm getting a little concerned at this consistent north trend......if it continues, guess what; we're all in trouble. Somewhat comforting to know that they are not in their optimal range yet, but if we see it from the globals today I'll start fretting.

RJB8525 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Still gonna wait till after tomorrow 0z.

Thanks to "Nemo" i can't buy into all the hype yet..but everything looks good..

P.S guys TWC is worried Boston will get more snow

I don't remember for sure, but didn't they station themselves in Boston during the February 26, 2010 storm? That was when NYC received 21 inches, the HV 3 feet and parts of NJ 30 inches? Boston received no snow during that storm, just a driving rainstorm with temperatures in the 40's.

I bet they did, and just reported on how unbelievable the rain is there.

Also FWIW, "The Model That Must Not Be Named" is coming in WAY warm and north. Might even go over to rain well north and west of NYC. Not good.

rb924119 wrote:I'm getting a little concerned at this consistent north trend......if it continues, guess what; we're all in trouble. Somewhat comforting to know that they are not in their optimal range yet, but if we see it from the globals today I'll start fretting.

In trouble how so RB, Rain or freezing rain? boy would that be a kick in the ass. from highs in the mid teens forecast now on Monday to a slop storm?

Or did you mean trouble by more snow which of course to everyone on this form means bring it on.

rb924119 wrote:Also FWIW, "The Model That Must Not Be Named" is coming in WAY warm and north. Might even go over to rain well north and west of NYC. Not good.

In the last two days I've seen every possible conceivable outcome for this storm. We started warm on some of the models a cutter from the euro two days ago, then to a snowstorm, than too far to the south. Then to the perfect track that gives everyone a foot of snow with temperatures in the mid teens to low 20s in our area, now North and West of us with temperature and precipitation issues?

I'm really not buying anything until tomorrow's noons runs. I am right now banning myself for 24 hours from looking at any weather sites or models. I leave it to the experienced here to interpret for me.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

rb924119 wrote:I'm getting a little concerned at this consistent north trend......if it continues, guess what; we're all in trouble. Somewhat comforting to know that they are not in their optimal range yet, but if we see it from the globals today I'll start fretting.

In trouble how so RB, Rain or freezing rain? boy would that be a kick in the ass. from highs in the mid teens forecast now on Monday to a slop storm?

Or did you mean trouble by more snow which of course to everyone on this form means bring it on.

From what I can tell at a quick glance, if you're north of I-287, you're still ok for all (or mostly) snow. Just south of there, it looks like it would be a slop storm, and for areas between roughly I-78 and I-287 freezing rain could be an issue. Again, it is the N_M; so take that with a salt shaker, but it is concerning to me. Todays runs of the globals will be crucial, I think, because this is not yet "in range" (if that's ever even possible) and the globals still are. Gotta just wait and see. Personally, I don't see this thing cutting, but with the mid-level lows to our west, it's tricky. The WAA may end up winning out, especially if we continue to see more interaction between the two vort maxes.

Too far south we get no snow, too far north rain or slop. We need this one to be juusst right. Again. Nothing comes easy in this part of the country.

Just as an idea, here's a map of the latest NAM (12z) forecast LIQUID EQUIVALENTS (in inches) accumulated p-types:

http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=ne&model=nam&run=12&fhr=28&field=acctype

This reminds me of the March 2nd-3rd, 2014 snow event. 3-5 days before the event, the big concern was if the storm was going to be too far north as the issue was whether or not NYC would see all snow or see a wintry mix. Then, models trended south to our pleasure, but then they kept doing do to the point where the Mid-Atlantic (I'm looking at you Quietace...) got some good snow while NYC ended up with just a coating.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Also FWIW, "The Model That Must Not Be Named" is coming in WAY warm and north. Might even go over to rain well north and west of NYC. Not good.

In the last two days I've seen every possible conceivable outcome for this storm. We started warm on some of the models a cutter from the euro two days ago, then to a snowstorm, than too far to the south. Then to the perfect track that gives everyone a foot of snow with temperatures in the mid teens to low 20s in our area, now North and West of us with temperature and precipitation issues?

I'm really not buying anything until tomorrow's noons runs. I am right now banning myself for 24 hours from looking at any weather sites or models. I leave it to the experienced here to interpret for me.

Come on, who are you kidding. Banning yourself. You know you can't resist taking a peek.

snow map for model not to be named..

imo we would want the this model to be north and amped. this model usually over plays most storms at this time frame. but yes some mixing comes into the city but great run for n and w zones. lets see what other models show today.

And here comes the 12z GFS......lets see how this goes.

Al, that is the limit as to how far north I want to see this modeled lmao I feel if it trends any further (only on the 00/12z runs, because I don't trust 06/18z runs as far as I can throw them) I think it could be game over.

Overall, 12z looks pretty similar to 00z so far. Maybe very subtle differences with the ridge, but I don't think they're large enough to impact anything.

The northern stream may dig ever so slightly more than 00z through 48, but it's not by much at all.

Ridge is a little more amped. This track will come north, but only by a few tens of miles, I think.

Surface low more developed (with respect to the circulation, not strength) through 60, but roughly same spot.

this looks for us cp and people north of 287 if this trend keeps going will do well!!!

All I'll say is that the 12z GFS realizes the WAA A LOT more than 00z lol Same track. We ALL GET SMOKED, except for the southern quarter of NJ.

Exact replica of the Euro. Sfc low exits the coast just N of Ocean City, MD. Ideal track!! WE all cash in folks - North south east and west!







EURO AND GFS AGREE - MY GOD!!!

SNOW MAN wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Also FWIW, "The Model That Must Not Be Named" is coming in WAY warm and north. Might even go over to rain well north and west of NYC. Not good.

In the last two days I've seen every possible conceivable outcome for this storm. We started warm on some of the models a cutter from the euro two days ago, then to a snowstorm, than too far to the south. Then to the perfect track that gives everyone a foot of snow with temperatures in the mid teens to low 20s in our area, now North and West of us with temperature and precipitation issues?

I'm really not buying anything until tomorrow's noons runs. I am right now banning myself for 24 hours from looking at any weather sites or models. I leave it to the experienced here to interpret for me.

Come on, who are you kidding. Banning yourself. You know you can't resist taking a peek.

You know me better than I know myself Snow Man.

It ain't hi-def, but it's all I got lol

http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/OP/12/snosums/0024/GFS_12_opUS_SF_0084.png

May we rejoice for now!!!!

rb924119 wrote:All I'll say is that the 12z GFS realizes the WAA A LOT more than 00z lol Same track. We ALL GET SMOKED, except for the southern quarter of NJ.

RB - could be Godzilla with Snow ratios as i checked Skew t's - easily and I mean easily 15:1 up to 25:1 - insane - then the Brutal cold roll sin and turns this snow pack which could be 18-24 inches after this storm.

Pretty sure that's only based on 10:1 ratios, too, so add a couple of inches to (depending on where you live) at least.

amugs wrote:EURO AND GFS AGREE - MY GOD!!!

I swear I felt a disturbance in The Force. Like a million voices crying out "SNOW"!