Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:24 am

Frank_Wx wrote:So far:

Yes: 11
No: 4

Ha!

I do think there will be more CAA to work with this go around. Should be interesting

Big change in the polls Frank, No is definitely capturing the independent voters. It's 14-12 now an 8-3 swing for No since the early returns. Once the rural areas all report I think yes is toast.

by **docstox12** Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:28 am

Logic and reason favor the no's here but with this fresh snowpack down there, who knows.Depends on the wind that night.Going with a seat of the pant gut feeling and voted yes,LOL!

by **Quietace** Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:29 am

Vote YES!

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too - Page 2 Hr1h410

by **Taffy** Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:32 am

Doc...I voted by the seat of my pants, a little intuition, and threw in a little logic and voted no!

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:34 am

54% yes
46% no

Should be interesting

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:49 am

The momentum and logic is on No's side.

To many promises by Yes that it can't possibly fulfill. Yes is a typical politician, lot's of promises but can't deliver. No just says vote for me because I can't and won't do anything, at least you respect the honesty even though the effort is poor.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:52 am

Temps:

Thursday morning

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too - Page 2 Gfs_T2m_neus_10

Friday morning

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too - Page 2 Gfs_T2m_neus_14

Saturday morning

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too - Page 2 Gfs_T2m_neus_18

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:55 am

Frank, aren't there laws against electioneering 500 feet from a polling place?

Obviously you are in the back pocket of yes. It's a harsh charge but I suspect bribery.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:57 am

Haha, I think CAA is more impressive this time around. Lower DDM heights and not as much wind. Friday night I think it will happen.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:01 am

Look for widespread to 1" to 3" amounts tomorrow night into Thursday morning. Another high ratio snowfall along the arctic front.

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too - Page 2 GemregPR06.18

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too - Page 2 GemregPR06.18

by **snow247** Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:22 am

Someone said on the other board that the snow showers tomorrow and Thursday could have 40+ to 1 ratios!

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:22 am

To add to the cold debate, 850's are going to be much colder this time around than earlier this week. Looking at -25*C. That's crazy. Will also make snow ratios between 25:1 to 30:1 as long as there is enough forcing.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:27 am

12z NAM by Wednesday night into early Thursday morning

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f39

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too - Page 2 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too - Page 2 NAM_CritThickRH_ne_f39

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too - Page 2 NAM_500mbHgtVort_ne_f39

by Biggin23 Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:36 am

I just voted yes, but that may just be me riding the over performing wave of last night's system.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:44 am

Biggin23 wrote:I just voted yes, but that may just be me riding the over performing wave of last night's system.

Of course you did because Frank is rigging the election. Where is Preet Bharara when you need him? This certainly supercedes Sheldon Silver taking 4 million in bribes.

Yes is unfulfilled promises and no substance.

No is reality and telling it like it is.

Vote NO because sometimes you just have to hear the truth not empty promises.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:49 am

No is losing the debate. Have not seen a single argument for it.

Friday 7am temps

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too - Page 2 Gfs_t2m_b_nyc_14

850mb temps

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too - Page 2 Gfs_t850_nyc_14

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:52 am

Since there don't seem to be any electioneering laws regarding this poll let me make my case for no.

The temperature has not dropped below zero in central Park in 20 years. The last time was January 1994 when it hit 2° below zero. On that same morning temperatures around the area ranged from a record-tying 34 below zero in northwest New Jersey, to 20 to 25° below zero in the Hudson Valley towns of Newburgh, Middletown, Kingston, and Poughkeepsie. That gives you an idea of how cold an air mass we needin the surrounding area around New York City to get the heat island below zero.

Conditions would have to be absolutely perfect for that to happen. Unlike surrounding areas which have their coldest nights when the wind is calm, it's cloudless and there is a decent snow cover. For New York City to continue to cool during the night you need the cloudless and the snow cover of course, but you also need some wind to carry the effects of the heat island off the island and out to sea.

I just don't see that happening and that's why I voted no.

I'm CP and I approved this message.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:54 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Since there don't seem to be any electioneering laws regarding this poll let me make my case for no.

The temperature has not dropped below zero in central Park in 20 years. The last time was January 1994 when it hit 2° below zero. On that same morning temperatures around the area ranged from a record-tying 34 below zero in northwest New Jersey, to 20 to 25° below zero in the Hudson Valley towns of Newburgh, Middletown, Kingston, and Poughkeepsie.

That gives you an idea of how cold an air mass we needin the surrounding area around New York City to get the heat island below zero.

Conditions would have to be absolutely perfect for that to happen. Unlike surrounding areas which have their coldest nights when the wind is calm, cloudless and with a snow cover, for New York City to continue to cool during the night you need the cloudless and the snow cover of course helps but you also need some wind to carry the effects of the heat island off the island and out to sea.

I just don't see that happening and that's why I voted no. And if you care about your kids in the world they will inherit you will vote no also.

I'm CP and I approved this message.

Hahaha

I will add to the "no" argument by saying there were less buildings in 1994 and not as much of a heat island effect.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:54 am

However, we have a modest snow cover to work with as well.

by **snow247** Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:52 am

12z GFS looking real good for the snow on Thursday.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:59 am

Surface low tries to pop south of the BM

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too - Page 2 GFS_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

Not going to happen quick enough for us. Just an inch or two. Isolated 3 spot. We'll see if it trends stronger at all

by **snow247** Tue Feb 17, 2015 11:02 am

GFS is saying Thursday-Friday definitely needs to be watched, 00z EURO from last night saying the same.

by **essexcountypete** Tue Feb 17, 2015 11:17 am

I voted no for CPK, but I think I get below 0 in Bloomfield. We were so close last week.

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 17, 2015 11:20 am

Wow, wheres the moderators when u need them lol, just had to shuffle my way through all this BANTEr about politics lol, really follow the rules guys totally kidding, anyways this cold is insane! Look at interior areas, -25 surface! When was the last time we saw that in upper Hudson valley and CT, yikes! Another 1-3 is fine with me, but are we gonna look at any bigger storms coming in?

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 17, 2015 11:51 am

jmanley32 wrote:Wow, wheres the moderators when u need them lol, just had to shuffle my way through all this BANTEr about politics lol, really follow the rules guys totally kidding, anyways this cold is insane! Look at interior areas, -25 surface! When was the last time we saw that in upper Hudson valley and CT, yikes! Another 1-3 is fine with me, but are we gonna look at any bigger storms coming in?

Upper HV is past Albany so they see that frequently.

The last time the Mid and LHV, not including most of rockland and westchester saw -20 to -25 was January 1994.

Most places in CT didn't get to -20 except the NW corner of the state.

NW Jersey had a report of -34 but the NWS I don't think recognized it. The -26 at Sussex was the recognized low.

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 17, 2015 1:16 pm

With a closed off H5 center N&W and energy rounding off the base of the trough, there may be coastal enhancement, or an IVT, Thursday morning.

by snowday111 Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:14 pm

What's the timeframe on this? Thursday morning or Thursday into Friday?

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Will CPK get below 0 Thursday night?