March 20th Storm

RGEM crushes the usual area

The 0Z RGEM has 25-30 dbz for a large portion of the daytime hours on Friday. If it were to come during the night time, we would be talking about significant accumulations. I think we needs the rates to be higher than that to override the March sun, but we'll see how it does in tomorrow's runs.

Frank - hope all works out okay...

0z RGEM is all snow for NYC and Philly. The rain/snow line cuts across south Jersey.

Frank_Wx wrote:Family emergency tonight means no forecast until I get home, which I have no clue when that will be. I have not even looked at data to even give an accurate number.

Frank, thinking of you and hoping everything is OK.

Snow88 wrote:

NWS not buying this for me.They are going with NAM saying only a few inches if that.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (my personal favorite ;-) just hoisted for all of NYC Metro. "2-4 inches with locally higher amounts."

On this one, I'd give NWS some slack.Late season snow events are very temperature sensitive and depend on the rate of snowfall for accumulations.If the storm overproduces, we'll see the last minute NWS snow bump up during the storm.Love when that happens, 2 to 4 to 4 to6 to 6 to 8, etc etc etc.Seen that many times.

Nope Doc no slack for them. Number 2;

LOL, Doc,I like that!!!

Also like that map for all.Frank mentioned latest runs coming in juicier.So far, so good.Need 2.4 inches to hit 70 here.Odds are getting better.

\

Have them use a forklift to load you in the cargo hold so you can reduce your walking.I'll be on measuring duty, Buddy, don't worry about that, have a safe flight!

4 to 6 would be great CP, we need to break that 71.4!!!

Absolutely Doc, let's keep the upward trend's going. Over 65 inches two years ago over 71 last year and let's go over 72 inches this year more if possible.

Not a bad three-year stretch when you consider our average is about 50 inches and we seem to keep missing the big ones.

Below is the National Weather Service forecast for tomorrow for Orange County.

Friday Snow, mainly after 9am. High near 32. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. East wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday Night
A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 24. North wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

I wonder if that should have read total snowfall 3 to 6 inches? I've never seen them put in the forecast a north wind of 3 to 6 mph. Who cares if it's 3 to 6 mph?

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Below is the National Weather Service forecast for tomorrow for Orange County.

Friday Snow, mainly after 9am. High near 32. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. East wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday Night
A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 24. North wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

I wonder if that should have read total snowfall 3 to 6 inches? I've never seen them put in the forecast a north wind of 3 to 6 mph. Who cares if it's 3 to 6 mph?

I believe so - their hangin' out in the Hooka Shop in Denver again!!!

The 12Z RGEM came in a lot less bullish than last night's 0Z RGEM.

Math23x7 wrote:The 12Z RGEM came in a lot less bullish than last night's 0Z RGEM.

In this run, SE PA and CNJ get the big snow.

Hey Doc and you Hudson Valley guys. I need 4" to get to 70" here in Syosset. You need 2.5" It's a race!!!!!!!!!!!!! You guys have the cold/elevation I have more qpf. We're neck and neck coming down the home stretch here.

Pro-rated my 66" here on LI has to be about 90" up in the Hudson Valley though!!!

Snow88 wrote:0z NAM

12Z RGEM matches with this from yesterday.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Below is the National Weather Service forecast for tomorrow for Orange County.

Friday Snow, mainly after 9am. High near 32. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. East wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Friday Night
A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 24. North wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

I wonder if that should have read total snowfall 3 to 6 inches? I've never seen them put in the forecast a north wind of 3 to 6 mph. Who cares if it's 3 to 6 mph?

3 to 6 mph? never hear that before from TWC.

By the way CP, I just sent you a PM.

syosnow94 wrote:Hey Doc and you Hudson Valley guys.  I need 4" to get to 70" here in Syosset.  You need 2.5"  It's a race!!!!!!!!!!!!!  You guys have the cold/elevation I have more qpf.  We're neck and neck coming down the home stretch here.

Pro-rated my 66" here on LI has to be about 90" up in the Hudson Valley though!!!

Jimmy, that's going to add some fun to this storm, who gets to 70 inches.Colder/less qpf VS warmer/more qpf.

Place your bets ladies and gentlemen!!!

syosnow94 wrote:Hey Doc and you Hudson Valley guys.  I need 4" to get to 70" here in Syosset.  You need 2.5"  It's a race!!!!!!!!!!!!!  You guys have the cold/elevation I have more qpf.  We're neck and neck coming down the home stretch here.

Pro-rated my 66" here on LI has to be about 90" up in the Hudson Valley though!!!

You guys average about 33 inches per season we average about 50, so pro rated you're probably close Syos. You're 66 which is twice your norm would be 100 up here.

Shows how we keep missing out on the qpf and I'm suspecting this storm will continue that trend.