March 20th Storm

What better way to open spring with a nice snowstorm! Well, I actually don't think it will be too bad. Since its coming during the day Friday, I'm questioning how much will actually stick. I also think some rain could mix in at times depending on exact track of the storm. Heck, some models have nothing at all for the area still. That said, we have blocking in place with some Pac ridging so we should see some moisture come up the coast on Friday with enough cold air in place for snow.

I will have a 1st call later tonight but at the moment only thinking a couple of inches on cold surfaces for NYC Metro area. To be honest, minor snow events in March bother me. Useless crap that melts the next day since temps could rebound into the 50's before taking a "dive" again to the 40's next week. That's still below normal this time of year.



00z NAM was about 2-4 inches for the area.

Ill take 4". Will get me to 70" for the season which is top 3 all time for me.

Frank Any chance of onset slowing down?

LET'S GO EURO CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP!!





Looks like 4"plus here peeps!

I think taking an avg of the 10:1 snowfall maps by euro gfs and ukie, and then multiplying that number by about 0.5-0.75 to acct for slightly less on the ratio you can give yourself a good general idea of what will accumulate mostly on colder surfaces at this stage. With room of course to shift up or down depending on if QPF trends a tad heavier or lighter and/or if the timing of the heaviest Precip trends slower to move in like say what the euro is hinting at.

Euro is aggressive still

Jet streak is not in a bad spot, not great either. This could be why precip gets forced into our area despite the track of the surface low

Frank_Wx wrote:Jet streak is not in a bad spot, not great either. This could be why precip gets forced into our area despite the track of the surface low

RRRRRRGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH HUMINA HUMINA HUMINA HUMINA HUMINA HUMINA lol

Hey rb or whomever. Do you recall where the discussion about the jet streak quadrants that rb wrote up are. If so can seine let me know?

sroc4 wrote:Hey rb or whomever. Do you recall where the discussion about the jet streak quadrants that rb wrote up are. If so can seine let me know?

It starts here and then goes through a few more of the following pages. I think there's also another discussion about other synoptic-scale forcing here too. I can't remember, though lol

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t496p50-sunday-monday-snowstorm-2nd-call-snow-map

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Hey rb or whomever. Do you recall where the discussion about the jet streak quadrants that rb wrote up are. If so can seine let me know?

It starts here and then goes through a few more of the following pages. I think there's also another discussion about other synoptic-scale forcing here too. I can't remember, though lol

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t496p50-sunday-monday-snowstorm-2nd-call-snow-map

Here's the second discussion:

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t496p150-sunday-monday-snowstorm-2nd-call-snow-map

Nam is wetter and cold. gives us 3 to 5 inches area wide.

12z GFS was impressive. 3-6/4-8 ordeal could be in order for us.

Frank_Wx wrote:12z GFS was impressive. 3-6/4-8 ordeal could be in order for us.

The energy at H5 looked much better(more amped) this run. We will see how the rest of the models unfold today.

this system is starting to resemble the March 1st and March 5th systems actually it looks like we're back in the same pattern, after seven to ten day break ,which started February 1st.

The -EPO PEEPS IT STRIKES ONCE AGAIN!!!

I cannot recall a time when we had such an unfavorable high pressure location (east and southeast of us) and this much snow. it's probably because low pressure has been so unorganized this winter. when was the last time we had an organized low pressure affect our area?

Although ground had warmed the muddy areas are freezing over again so it may have a chance to stick, if it stays cold enough maybe even to roads too.

and yes mugs the -EPO definitely played a big part

jmanley32 wrote:Although ground had warmed the muddy areas are freezing over again so it may have a chance to stick, if it stays cold enough maybe even to roads too.

It will jman with this cold air in place.

CMC BABY!!

algae888 wrote:this system is starting to resemble the March 1st and March 5th systems actually it looks like we're back in the same pattern, after seven to ten day break ,which started February 1st.

Check out my post from March 5th.   15days ago!
by sroc4 on Thu Mar 05, 2015 11:28 am

Im sorry I cant help myself, but just look at this for March 20th.  Euro, GFS, and Canadian ensembles 500mb height anomalies respectively.  I said it before and Ill say it again.  The -EPO is rebuilding coupled with the +PNA potentially; all because the warmer than normal SST off the west coast of NA.  The negatives (blue colors) out in the pacific off the western CONUS will be shooting energy along the STJ.  While the Alaskan Ridging (-EPO signal) will be sending strong Arctic HP south leading to a trough in the east.  Now keep in mind that climatology this time of year will moderate the arctic air as it gets further south relative to what we have experienced thus far this winter, but the source region of the air mass is arctic as depicted here.  The possibility of a similar set up to what we are seeing now, or the possibility of a true Nor Easter if there is Northern energy that is timed right with southern energy and phases is a possibility from March 19th-24Th.  Im just saying
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Scott you are a weather prophet. I remember that post and had a hard time believing it would happen this late in the season. what an amazing run we have had. by the way the Euro looks like it's back on top again especially with the southern systems

12z runs seem to show 4-6 in this neck of the woods which would be robust for this time of year and a nice final storm and a good trend. Question is can it hold for 2 days because I cant see how it trends a whole lot better. Dont want to see trends start to burn us in the wrong direction.

A word from the meteorlogical prophet Scott!!

AMEN!!!