Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[amugs]

The pattern is ripe for a coastal IMHO. The set up is there and if all comes together we could get a good one - something to reboot the weather pattern. Personally I wish this were late November than early October it I will take it at this stage. No more drought after the next couple of weeks and maybe this time next week.
From NWS
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY HAS INFUSED TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE FRONT AND ENHANCED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A DAY AGO THE GUIDANCE WAS
DIVERGENT WITH THE MAGNITUDE AND TRACK OF THE LOW. NOW THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH WARM
CONVEYOR BELT PROCESSES BRINGING DEEP-LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. THERE IS EVEN SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT SUPPORTS
EMBEDDED CONVECTION AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS NOW
LOOKS LIKE A WIDESPREAD FOUR TO EIGHT-INCH RAINFALL EVENT. THE STEADIEST RAINS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
WED...THEN SLOWLY DRYING OUT THROUGH THU NIGHT. A LARGE HIGH BUILDS
TO THE NORTH AND WEST THU INTO FRI WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DRY

This is a beautiful winter like pattern here but to bad it ain't 3 months from now!!



WPC says too as well - BYE BYE Drought?!

[amugs]

Here she comes - dateline warming up - basin wide nino:







Depths of the warm bathtub - notice where the warmest body is at it REGION 3.4 and 4 - creeping to the dateline from this information. The depth is showing the staying power of this event.

[amugs]

Arctic sea ice extent has plateaued here - hopefully it will continue its upward trend over the next week and get back on teh right track. So my Chia Pet Pup has not grown so I will not post a picture of him/her for you -

[amugs]

Pattern Change to SROCs discussion - EPO

[amugs]

BASIN WIDE NINO PEEPS - as I stated last night that the forcing is setting up near the dateline - WOOP WOOP!! The models are starting to pick up on these waters warming. Look at the warm body of water south of the Aleutians as well - holding on there too. Good placement of this warm water south of the Aleutians - this is where I think we form our


Warm Body of Water South of the Aleutian Islands.

The warm waters from region 1.2 Shifting West out towards the dateline – look at how far this body of water stretched. Dateline is 180 marking on the map. Very good sign IMHO.

[jmanley32]

The pattern is ripe for a coastal IMHO. The set up is there and if all comes together we could get a good one - something to reboot the weather pattern. Personally I wish this were late November than early October it I will take it at this stage. No more drought after the next couple of weeks and maybe this time next week.
From NWS
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY HAS INFUSED TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE FRONT AND ENHANCED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A DAY AGO THE GUIDANCE WAS
DIVERGENT WITH THE MAGNITUDE AND TRACK OF THE LOW. NOW THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH WARM
CONVEYOR BELT PROCESSES BRINGING DEEP-LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. THERE IS EVEN SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT SUPPORTS
EMBEDDED CONVECTION AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS NOW
LOOKS LIKE A WIDESPREAD FOUR TO EIGHT-INCH RAINFALL EVENT. THE STEADIEST RAINS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
WED...THEN SLOWLY DRYING OUT THROUGH THU NIGHT. A LARGE HIGH BUILDS
TO THE NORTH AND WEST THU INTO FRI WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DRY

This is a beautiful winter like pattern here but to bad it ain't 3 months from now!!



WPC says too as well - BYE BYE Drought?!

ok I'm confused a 4 to 8 inch rain event just Tues into wed?! Or for the whole week? The way they word that makes it sound like just that one day. That would b insane!

[jmanley32]

Wow look at hwrf and gfdl for 3rd on td 11. Turns it into a monster we on far left at this point. Unlikely these models play out but Def need to watch waters very warm up this way.

[amugs]

This from another board - shows the goods for the upcoming winter, look



If the heights are higher through Alaska with lower pressure to the south it's a NEG EPO. The fact that there is high pressure to its south should be understood , there will always be high pressure at some point under lower pressure ( unless one thinks you need to dig a trough all the way to the Antarctica) in the EPAC.

I very much like this as you should if you are a winter weather weenie!!

[nutleyblizzard]

This from another board - shows the goods for the upcoming winter, look



If the heights are higher through Alaska with lower pressure to the south it's a NEG EPO. The fact that there is high pressure to its south should be understood , there will always be high pressure at some point under lower pressure ( unless one thinks you need to dig a trough all the way to the Antarctica) in the EPAC.

I very much like this as you should if you are a winter weather weenie!!  

If we end up with a -EPO with a super Nino, then the skies the limit with snowfall potential. Would be a truly unique setup to have. There are also some definite signs that we will have a favorable Atlantic as well Mugs. Something we didn't have last year.

[amugs]

This from another board - shows the goods for the upcoming winter, look



If the heights are higher through Alaska with lower pressure to the south it's a NEG EPO. The fact that there is high pressure to its south should be understood , there will always be high pressure at some point under lower pressure ( unless one thinks you need to dig a trough all the way to the Antarctica) in the EPAC.

I very much like this as you should if you are a winter weather weenie!!  

If we end up with a -EPO with a super Nino, then the skies the limit with snowfall potential. Would be a truly unique setup to have. There are also some definite signs that we will have a favorable Atlantic as well Mugs. Something we didn't have last year.

Nutley,

Absolutely, I do not think we go -3 SD or m,ore this year but I could see a -1 SD to neutral for this upcoming winter - anything above that is pure decadence!! And the Atlantic gives us some help with a west based Greenland Block than MOMMA MIA we are in for a fun ride!! Oh and I think it is + (POS)PNA driven winter more so than a - (NEG)EPO winter like the past two- where these culprits set up is going to mighty interesting.

[nutleyblizzard]

This from another board - shows the goods for the upcoming winter, look



If the heights are higher through Alaska with lower pressure to the south it's a NEG EPO. The fact that there is high pressure to its south should be understood , there will always be high pressure at some point under lower pressure ( unless one thinks you need to dig a trough all the way to the Antarctica) in the EPAC.

I very much like this as you should if you are a winter weather weenie!!  

If we end up with a -EPO with a super Nino, then the skies the limit with snowfall potential. Would be a truly unique setup to have. There are also some definite signs that we will have a favorable Atlantic as well Mugs. Something we didn't have last year.

Nutley,

Absolutely, I do not think we go -3 SD or m,ore this year but I could see a -1 SD to neutral for this upcoming winter - anything above that is pure decadence!! And the Atlantic gives us some help with a west based Greenland Block than MOMMA MIA we are in for a fun ride!! Oh and I think it is + (POS)PNA driven winter more so than a - (NEG)EPO winter like the past two- where these culprits set up is going to mighty interesting.

I would much rather have a somewhat weaker -EPO anyway... too strong of one and you run the risk of suppression especially if the AO tanks. Lot's of variables at play here.

[amugs]

Check out where we are entering October in Snow and Ice growth - I better start feeding my CHIA PET PUPPY!! Comparison of 2014 and 2015

2014


2015- look over Canada - in comparison much less

[amugs]

nter-2015-2016-temperature-forecast-december-january-february" />

[amugs]

I'm BACK>>>>>>>>>>>>>>



Not too shaby peeeps


1 year ago


Good recovery and now we begin to see the growth as the cold temps and storms are looking promising over the next two weeks in this region.

[amugs]

BASIN wide boiling pot of EPAC (Equitorial Pacific Ocean)
AND.... Look at the waters South of teh Aluetians - BAZINGAAAAAAAAAAA!! Hold on baby!!

[docstox12]

Very nice news Mugsy on the chia growth and the bathtub!!!

[Frank_Wx]

I am a little concerned with those waters south of the Aleutians, Mugs. If that is where ridge placement is going to be this winter, it better be over Alaska and not Russia or else the mean trough may be over the western US.

[jmanley32]

Frank that would be bad for winter sotrms? BTW thanks for closing the Joaquin thread, now I don't need check on any comments lol

[amugs]

I am a little concerned with those waters south of the Aleutians, Mugs. If that is where ridge placement is going to be this winter, it better be over Alaska and not Russia or else the mean trough may be over the western US.

Yes , from the CFS, JAMSETC, EURO they all show the the trough setting up over this area of Alaska thus giving us nuetral to negative EPO by 1 - 1.5 SD

[sroc4]

I am a little concerned with those waters south of the Aleutians, Mugs. If that is where ridge placement is going to be this winter, it better be over Alaska and not Russia or else the mean trough may be over the western US.

Yes , from the CFS, JAMSETC, EURO they all show the the trough setting up over this area of Alaska thus giving us nuetral to negative EPO by 1 - 1.5 SD

I believe the LR UKMET as well

[rb924119]

I am a little concerned with those waters south of the Aleutians, Mugs. If that is where ridge placement is going to be this winter, it better be over Alaska and not Russia or else the mean trough may be over the western US.

Believe it or not, El Nino may help to offset some of that. Btw, did you guys ever see my study that I posted for Sroc? It's quite possible that it got lost in the maddening "52-pick up" of Joaquin lmao let me know, and I'll repost it if you want.

[Frank_Wx]

I am a little concerned with those waters south of the Aleutians, Mugs. If that is where ridge placement is going to be this winter, it better be over Alaska and not Russia or else the mean trough may be over the western US.

Believe it or not, El Nino may help to offset some of that. Btw, did you guys ever see my study that I posted for Sroc? It's quite possible that it got lost in the maddening "52-pick up" of Joaquin lmao let me know, and I'll repost it if you want.

You have to put your awesome writeups in their own thread. Do it now.

[sroc4]

I am a little concerned with those waters south of the Aleutians, Mugs. If that is where ridge placement is going to be this winter, it better be over Alaska and not Russia or else the mean trough may be over the western US.

Believe it or not, El Nino may help to offset some of that. Btw, did you guys ever see my study that I posted for Sroc? It's quite possible that it got lost in the maddening "52-pick up" of Joaquin lmao let me know, and I'll repost it if you want.

I didn't see it. Repost in a new topic as Frank said.

[amugs]

Frank,

This what i was talking about in the above post with the sst near rhe Aluetians. The euro showing the massive Aluetian low, right in the area where that warm swath of water resides. If we can get this for this upcoming winter I think we would be good, big ridge on the West over BC

[Frank_Wx]

I see what you mean. But if the core of the warm SST anomalies concentrate south of the Aleutians, that may lead to ridging over that area instead of a trough. We'll see how SSTs look by months end.

Expect 70s to return next week, but as Mugs' map show, we'll be entering a pattern change next weekend to cooler weather.

[amugs]

I see what you mean. But if the core of the warm SST anomalies concentrate south of the Aleutians, that may lead to ridging over that area instead of a trough. We'll see how SSTs look by months end.

Expect 70s to return next week, but as Mugs' map show, we'll be entering a pattern change next weekend to cooler weather.

I agree and at this point I will take this

[jmanley32]

Long rage GFS showing a coastal potential and so is the Euro : ) I trust in Euro!

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