*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

A little late with this - sorry - but here is the blog looking a little bit at Erika. Additional information will come out this weekend if she still looks like a threat.

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2015/08/watching-tropical-storm-erika.html

Good blog not sure what it exactly means for us if anything but from what u said even u can't make a call now. Pressure went up again at 8pm update. I think she may b fast enough to miss that part that would kill her off. I myself will b watching regardless of what happens. She also has possibility to b a monster near Bahamas where it then goes who knows. Thanks for insight.

There's so many options on the table right now that it's best to take a wait and see approach for the next 48 hours.

Umm 18z gfs is on drugs check it out weird

Noreaster wrote:There's so many options on the table right now that it's best to take a wait and see approach for the next 48 hours.

agreed no point to model hug as nothing g is in sync anyways

Noreaster wrote:There's so many options on the table right now that it's best to take a wait and see approach for the next 48 hours.

How nice of you to join us here

New 5pm track

5PM update

This one is def showing the change in track, toward EC and not FL.



discussion on nhc 5pm talks about Erika possibly degrading but almost positive she will regain and strengthen in caribbean area and as it turns.

TCHP, or Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, is impressive around the Bahamas. Erika has a really good chance of developing into a Hurricane. Possibly category 2 by early next week.

snow that wu purple sketti model is old, i saw the new one but for some reason it reverted back to 11am, it showed the white on east side of FL and many more sketi up coast but none into our area, some headed that direction but stop around obx, guess too far out.

Frank_Wx wrote:

TCHP, or Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, is impressive around the Bahamas. Erika has a really good chance of developing into a Hurricane. Possibly category 2 by early next week.

yep the sure are, even up the coast to obx and then offshore of the area they are warmer than normal, will be interesting to watch this unfold whatever she does.  I am thinking anywhere from cat 1-3 right now, intensity models even go as extreme as cat 4 but i do not think that will happen but you never know hurricanes are sneaky things.

hwrf dang, Frank did you say this has actually been okay this year? sorry if i posted this over on other thread not sure if I did or not. pretty colors lol

No, I said the GFDL. And mainly in track not much with intensity.

18z GFS did 180 (from showing nearly nothing to this agreeing with CMC and Euro at least on track and being some type of hurricane at 162 hrs.

Then id oddly meanders around the area for quite some time going a bit SE, how odd.

jmanley32 wrote:snow that wu purple sketti model is old, i saw the new one but for some reason it reverted back to 11am, it showed the white on east side of FL and many more sketi up coast but none into our area, some headed that direction but stop around obx, guess too far out.

Yea thanks jman, didn't notice it said 11AM.

This storm makes me want to renew my wxbell subscription early.

LOL I did!

Looks like the 00z tropical models went more east..

You can still see the shear on Erika, but the continuous convection bursts are aiding her survival...
http://bit.ly/1K5opy4

Those dip in heights leading to a positive looking trough in the Southeast will be the reason for Erika to recurve out to sea. She could meander for awhile since we'll also have a -NAO. If somehow the ridge builds more south and east and the trough gets absorbed, Erika could come up the coast. Confidence is in the former scenario rather than the latter at the moment.

Right now I'll place 50% odds of coastal Carolina's getting hit, 30% Florida and southeast states, 20% our area.

11PM advisory

Latest GFS brings this storm inland into the Carolinas.