*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

look at blue GFDL, frank you mentioned this has a fairly goot record with track, the intensity I posted above is probably way too strong but GFDL is b-line for area on that sketti model which goes further north than the actual model run.

As of right now I would say the most likely scenario is a landfall somewhere between Florida and South Carolina, strength to be determined. This is just based on current data though, so of course it could and probably will change.

If I had to guess:
Southeast states (mainly FL, GA, and SC): 50%
North Carolina: 40%
Our area: 10%

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Looks like it may be starting a very slight jog WNW.

We do not have to have a direct landfall to have a bad storm remember.

Current Radar water vapor:

Check out the track plots, scratch your head??

00z GFS rolling and the storm looks further south than the last run through hour 48.

GFS says "who's Erika?"

Current Radar Water Vapor



Current Radar Infra Red

new spaghetti plots as of 6z Friday

westward shift continues. look how it cuts right through Hispaniola.

look at erika south of PR. 36hrs ago almost every model had her north of PR. models did a poor job in the short term with her.

gefs has 0% chance of Erika hitting nyc metro.

I am also hearing euro lost her too.

Erika is now forecast to remain a t/s.

some of nhc 5am update...Strong shear is expected to continue or even increase during the
next day or so. The combination of the shear and interaction with
Hispaniola suggests that Erika is likely to weaken and could even
dissipate in the next 12 to 24 hours. Assuming that the cyclone
survives, there is an opportunity for some intensification on days
2 and 3 of the forecast period as the shear decreases, and that is
reflected in the NHC forecast. After that time, since the NHC track
now takes Erika inland over the Florida peninsula, weakening is
shown at days 4 and 5. Much of the guidance has trended weaker this
cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the HWRF and the
IVCN consensus. Confidence in the intensity forecast remains very
low.

The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be
very heavy rainfall over portions of the the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti today. These rains could
produce flash floods and mud slides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 17.7N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 18.8N 69.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/0600Z 20.5N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 29/1800Z 22.0N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 23.2N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 25.6N 80.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/0600Z 27.7N 81.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0600Z 30.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

Well unless things drastically change I guess this is no longer a threat def to us and not really anything FL has not seen before.  Wow what a bunch of mixed up models and track differences.  So do the other pros here agree that Erika is done and has no chance of getting up here as anything, even more holding together to become a hurricane at all anywhere?

I'm not totally discounting her yet. Just because she won't make direct landfall here doesn't meant she still can't bring us rain. New percentages:

Old: "Right now I'll place 50% odds of coastal Carolina's getting hit, 30% Florida and southeast states, 20% our area."

New: Florida 60%, Carolina's 30%, NJ 10%

Good! There was prior discussion a day or so ago of this becoming another Sandy.The folks down the shore don't need that.Hope Sandy will be a once in a hundred year event.

The only spaghetti track I want to see is one out of the Gulf picking up that warm water and curving up the coast in Dec., Jan. or Feb. giving us another Boxing Day.

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This map tells us a lot.  This unexpected shift south yesterday is the main reason why we saw the track shift west. If it actually followed the track we though it was going to yesterday, black arrow there would have been much less interactions with PR and more importantly Hispanola today.  This ultimately means a much weaker wave which is way more influenced by the steering layers.  As you can see by this next image which shows the mean steering layer, the more southerly track leads to a later turn north and a route over more land lending to a much weaker system as it approaches Fla and nowhere for it to intensify, vs the just north of the islands track which would have had the center less influenced by the mountains of the islands and a turn N sooner off the SE Fla coast where the bath water is for intensification.  It aint over till the fat lady sings but the Cat 5 on the GFDL yesterday off the outer banks is highly unlikely at this stage.
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Sroc gfdl still shows a cat 4 off SC fwiw...not much

The GFDL has been the only one to hold its track to carolinas, weaker this run but what are peoples thoughts on this? Frank I know you said 30% but you had also said GFDL has been good and it certainly has been darn consistent on as NW track missing FL. But as of now not sure how I see that happening.

All I can say is so far we have seen the change up when we were expecting the fast ball.  Nothing is set in stone.  Again like a winter storm the Md and LR are never set in stone.  We have to see what happens to her over the next 24hrs after she interacts with the mountains of Hispanola/Honduras.  Trends are weaker and west but since it hasnt happened yet we cont to track.

jmanley32 wrote:

JMan this is a quote from someone on another board..."the GFDL has been the most consistent model..... its either smoking something good or its onto something"

We track

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

JMan this is a quote from someone on another board..."the GFDL has been the most consistent model..... its either smoking something good or its onto something"

We track

I hope its onto something!!!

LOL, I think this time it may be onto something with its staying course and my bad that's NC, duhhhh. Yes 24 hrs will be very telling.

11am has Erika headed to re-emerge into the SW atlantic after riding FL (of course this could still change), wonder what will happen then.

Hopefully it stays away from our area imo