*BLOG* Tropical Storm Erika

11am has Erika headed to re-emerge into the SW atlantic after riding FL (of course this could still change), wonder what will happen then.

Hopefully it stays away from our area imo

skinsfan1177 wrote:Hopefully it stays away from our area imo

I doubt much we get a direct landfall but a weakening storm or remnants cannot be ruled out yet I think. She is still south of the area, to that I give a tropical system the room to do what its going to do until its out of the picture, until then ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

12z GFS again with nada, not even a TS for FL, doesn't even look to initialize as a closed LP, odd.

jmanley32 wrote:12z GFS again with nada, not even a TS for FL, doesn't even look to initialize as a closed LP, odd.

Cmc does bring her off the southeast coast and develops into a hurricane and hits North Carolina only up to 84 hours. However it is the CMC and for some reason she strengthens her over land

It all going to wind up to be another Danny Too much to overcome

Mu lord CMC makes 4 landfalls here circling the area, hilarious.  If that were to happen it would be the worst thing to ever happen. Dropping 24 inches of rain in sE tip of NJ 5-10 rest of state less in to Westchester.

Cmc really! Can we ever take this model serious when it comes to tropical systems.
First it strengthens the hurricane while it is over land in Florida secondly it does two loop de loops in our area. How can anyone believe this

I never said I did, its crazy though just to see that.

jmanley32 wrote:I never said I did, its crazy though just to see that.

I know jman. Never said you did. I was just amazed to see that run. I was trying to talk myself out of believing it.lol

12z GGEM: Weak wave goes into Florida, exits the SC coast and blows up over our area.

Canadian

Ya, umm its a model run so I guess anything is possible, kinda in line with route GFDL takes but 2 feet of rain in NJ, that would be something, and devastation winds. That would be one to discuss with my grandkids, a rotating storm to loop the area at least twice.

Euro running showing nada, these models are not even worth watching other than for entertainment.

Let's just not look at any models until at least Tuesday lol

LOL yes u will snow : ) As we all probably will.

These models are terrible with these tropical system the way they waffle - to many atmospheric dynamics. NHC showing the WNW trend in its latest

Hearing the 12z gfdl has caved also

It did crosses FL and into SC, as a weak TS at best. Still I do not think this storm will be well modeled till it passes hispanola

This thing is going to wind up in the gulf and going to pound Alabama and Mississippi with rain.

syosnow94 wrote:This thing is going to wind up in the gulf and going to pound Alabama and Mississippi with rain.

LOL, who knows, she been all over the place. Something I noted that some convection is actually firing over Dominican republic which is near center. Interesting. I still do not discount a more eastern run once gets further north.