Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:16 am

jake732 wrote:frank for some reason i dont feel the NAM is right on this one but who knows this winter is taking us all for ride

Well the UKIE trended west last night. Let's see what other 12z models say before jumping the gun on the NAM.

by Guest Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:17 am

Cape cod on that run gets destroyed. Hopefully this beast gets super strong and forms a mind of its own like a hurricane and wobbles our way

by **sroc4** Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:18 am

The way this winter has gone anything is on the table.

by **jake732** Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:20 am

frank how many miles west does this beast have to come to get jersey shore some nice stuff?

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:22 am

jake732 wrote:frank how many miles west does this beast have to come to get jersey shore some nice stuff?

The NAM was still 2-4 for you guys. Another 20 mile shift west and much of eastern NJ will be in the 3-6

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:25 am

If the coastal storm comes as far west as the NAM suggests I don't see how the IVT makes it north too. It's one or the other. The baroclinic zone is shunted S&E from the ocean storm and the 500mb energy stays south too.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:26 am

Snow for everyone on Monday

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:32 am

As one of the more outspoken residents of the snow starved HV, and I've actually had it better here than most, after seeing the last NAM run bury LI again, we do hereby surrender this winter season to the Jersey shore, NYC and LI.

I am done at least for the day. I am taking up residence for the rest of the week on my beloved OTI and my 30 year average snowfall thread.

white flag

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:34 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:As one of the more outspoken residents of the snow starved HV, and I've actually had it better here than most, after seeing the last NAM run bury LI again, we do hereby surrender this winter season to the Jersey shore, NYC and LI.

I am done at least for the day. I am taking up residence for the rest of the week on my beloved OTI and my 30 year average snowfall thread.

I'm pretty sure everyone will see accumulating snow Monday-Tuesday. Just a matter of determining how much. I'm very close to saying 2-4 incheS for everyone (both days combined) WITH POCKETS OF 6"+ WHERE THE IVT SETS UP.

by Guest Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:00 am

Frank buddy. If it's one or the other not both, which one is preferable. What I mean is which one can give us the most snow?

by **nutleyblizzard** Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:07 am

www.weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_3pres.gif

Check out this 3 hour pressure change map. I think this beast is really starting a trend N/W!!!

by Deed79 Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:13 am

Hi first time posting.long time lurker. You guys do a great job here on this forum. Question for the experts here but is the trough negative now.? It looks like it. It also looks like precip is back building N/W into the carolinas were it was not modeled to do so. Does this hold water? Thanks

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:16 am

syosnow94 wrote:Frank buddy. If it's one or the other not both, which one is preferable. What I mean is which one can give us the most snow?

The IVT is unpredictable. We can only go off trends and model guidance less than 12 hours away. The coastal is more clear cut even though there is incredible spread in guidance.

I'm going to say Tuesday will be better.

by **snow247** Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:16 am

Look at that north push.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

by **Quietace** Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:17 am

Deed79 wrote:Hi first time posting.long time lurker. You guys do a great job here on this forum. Question for the experts here but is the trough negative now.? It looks like it. It also looks like precip is back building N/W into the carolinas were it was not modeled to do so. Does this hold water? Thanks

The trough is currently Neg tilted and no longer closed off. The pressure change near the Carolina's is probably being caused by the slight kink in the 500mb isobars, and a large amount of divergence at 300mb situated over this area.

by **docstox12** Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:18 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:As one of the more outspoken residents of the snow starved HV, and I've actually had it better here than most, after seeing the last NAM run bury LI again, we do hereby surrender this winter season to the Jersey shore, NYC and LI.

I am done at least for the day. I am taking up residence for the rest of the week on my beloved OTI and my 30 year average snowfall thread.

LOL, that's something new and different...areas S and E of us getting more snow.And as you say, look at jimv, hyde and Damian north of us.

Here's a horrible statistic for those guys that may play out.If the recent S and E trend continues, those guys up there may get less than 5 inches, if any, while the City is over 35 inches.Sharpen your pencil and see if that ever happened in the last 100 years,LOL!

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:18 am

Deed79 wrote:Hi first time posting.long time lurker. You guys do a great job here on this forum. Question for the experts here but is the trough negative now.? It looks like it. It also looks like precip is back building N/W into the carolinas were it was not modeled to do so. Does this hold water? Thanks

Hello Deed. Yes, the 500mb trough associated with the storm in the southeast is negative but it's not closed off. This means it will track more northeast than north. The reason why outer bands are reaching the coast is because of the HUGE RH (relative humidity) field mixing with 700mb frontogenesis (lift) in the atmosphere. It will be interesting to track the radar today.

by **Quietace** Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:21 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
Deed79 wrote:Hi first time posting.long time lurker. You guys do a great job here on this forum. Question for the experts here but is the trough negative now.? It looks like it. It also looks like precip is back building N/W into the carolinas were it was not modeled to do so. Does this hold water? Thanks

Hello Deed. Yes, the 500mb trough associated with the storm in the southeast is negative but it's not closed off. This means it will track more northeast than north. The reason why outer bands are reaching the coast is because of the HUGE RH (relative humidity) field mixing with 700mb frontogenesis (lift) in the atmosphere. It will be interesting to track the radar today.

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Sfnt

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 7fnt

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:22 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:www.weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_3pres.gif Check out this 3 hour pressure change map. I think this beast is really starting a trend N/W!!!

Very impressive. Wow.

by **Quietace** Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:23 am

500mb

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 300mb

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:23 am

Upper level Winds streaming north. HMMM MM

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Ua_vect_300

by Deed79 Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:24 am

Thanks guys keep up the great work

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:24 am

gfs is up next right..

by HEATMISER Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:26 am

How much long till we see what the gfs says

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:27 am

This is amazing. Look at the trough over the Great Lakes digging south and east as the beast storm moves up the coast.

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Sat_ir_us_loop-12

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 5 Sat_ir_us_loop-12

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:28 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:gfs is up next right..

HEATMISER wrote:How much long till we see what the gfs says

At hour 6

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Feb 07, 2016 10:30 am

Frank_Wx wrote:This is amazing. Look at the trough over the Great Lakes digging south and east as the beast storm moves up the coast.

Any chance they phase, or to late and to far apart at this juncture.

by Sponsored content