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February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

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NJ Strong Weather Forum  :: NJ Strong Weather Discussions :: Official Weather Talk Thread

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February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 07, 2016 7:19 am

NWS saying 2 to 6 for the Mon-Weds period.Not seeing a big one.

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February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 07, 2016 8:24 am

Although not a problem for most, LI esp eastern sections still stands a chance at accumulations with this system. High RH still makes it into LI. Still think last minute westward jog is possible. 10-20miles

06z 4Km NAM:

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Nam4km_ref_frzn_neus_10

06z RGEM:

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_12

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February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 8:55 am

12z NAM nudging back west 

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 NAM_CritThickRH_ne_f20

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 NAM_CritThickRH_ne_f21February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f22

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 8:56 am

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Image.thumb.gif.1066d6bb7a1ac29fc49b44c5abc8283f

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 8:57 am

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Image.thumb.gif.d9e151e9c8aa88437e139e058a62f756

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 8:58 am

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 NAM_CritThickRH_ne_f24

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 07, 2016 8:58 am

As Yogi said said, "It aint over till it's over"

A storm this powerful will always bear watching, they sometimes have minds of their own.
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February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 8:58 am

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 NAM_CritThickRH_ne_f25

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February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 07, 2016 8:59 am

Getting tugged back to coast or is the precip shield bigger.
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February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:00 am

Very sharp cut offs. NYC maybe an inch or two while Jersey Shore into LI possibly 3-6

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f26

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:00 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Getting tugged back to coast or is the precip shield bigger.

Precip shield

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February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:01 am

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Image.thumb.gif.be670ccf4478b17f879794ad0cbb573e

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Image.thumb.gif.75fde4f494925e5b7542244306eff866

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:02 am

So their is still time then with afternoon runs
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February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:02 am

Long Island is getting buried on the NAM. Definitely 6"+

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:03 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:So their is still time then with afternoon runs

Clearly models are completely lost. I think from Jersey Shore to LI are in prime spots. Will be interesting to see other models today

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February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 Empty Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions

Post by Joe Snow Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:04 am

When are we in range with the HRRR?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:08 am

Hires NAM also burying LI

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 NAM-HIRES_Radar_ne_f18
February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 NAM-HIRES_Radar_ne_f19

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 NAM-HIRES_Radar_ne_f20

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 NAM-HIRES_Radar_ne_f21

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 NAM-HIRES_Radar_ne_f22

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:09 am

This is just crazy this year with models early yesterday looked great last night not great this morning getting back to great lol
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:09 am

Joe Snow wrote:When are we in range with the HRRR?

00z tonight

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:10 am

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 NAM-HIRES_Radar_ne_f23

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 NAM-HIRES_Radar_ne_f24

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:12 am

February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions - Page 4 NAM-HIRES_Radar_ne_f26

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:12 am

I'll sign right now for 3-6 for Jersey shore
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Post by Biggin23 Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:12 am

If it ticks 30-50 miles more NW a lot of people will be in the good stuff!

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Post by jake732 Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:13 am

frank for some reason i dont feel the NAM is right on this one but who knows this winter is taking us all for ride
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Post by sroc4 Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:16 am

I didnt hear no fat lady.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:16 am

jake732 wrote:frank for some reason i dont feel the NAM is right on this one but who knows this winter is taking us all for  ride

Well the UKIE trended west last night. Let's see what other 12z models say before jumping the gun on the NAM.

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Post by Guest Sun Feb 07, 2016 9:17 am

Cape cod on that run gets destroyed. Hopefully this beast gets super strong and forms a mind of its own like a hurricane and wobbles our way

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