Feb 9th-10th IVT Update 2.0

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Tom. The warmest meteorological winter in history so far. And 11 days below normal of the last 71. That's plenty to complain about in my book. It's what kind of winter you enjoy.  I'll take near to below normal temperatures with average to slightly below average snowfall any day over this El Niño driven warm winter with one record breaking event any day and twice on Sunday. It's indvidual choice and even if I was at normal snowfall I would still loathe this winter for the relentless above normal temperatures.

Just one mans opinion.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:A 3 day discussion about a threat that produced flurries.

What about the past 2 storms that dumped on you and scraped the rest of us with a few inches that melted after a couple hours with none at all the last one? My area and areas to my west and south have gotten several hours of snow in 3 rounds, the first one two nights ago with about 1" that melted pretty quickly. Round 2 last night with another thick coating and round 3 early this morning and continuing now with another 1" or so as of now combining the two. Driving last night around 12am road conditions actually became hazardous as it began to stick on treated roadways after heavy rates for a couple hours. Its not always about what happens in your backyard. I could have whined about the last 2 unmercifully but considering we had a historic blizzard in an unusually warm January and winter overall so far NOBODY should be complaining (besides NEPA and HV people well below avg as of now, cut them a pass on that one). NYC south exceeded seasonal snowfall already, Im around 35" now after this and theres nothing to be complainy about...

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Hey, does anybody know where I can find a good map for storm reports from this?? I want to self assess lol

http://www.weather.gov/erh/hydromet

Thanks Scott!!

Although it is still snowing over parts of the area, it would happen such that I busted in the areas that everybody on this board live in ahaha

Observations:



My second call:



As you can see, my max area verified pretty well, and for the most part, all areas south of I-80 and west of the Delaware River verified pretty well. My 5-7" zone did expand a bit too far to the east it appears, but only by about 40 miles. The north-south extent was spot on, and it's hard to tell about the western periphery, but I'll give myself a fail for that, since I do have a closed contour and since the terrain doesn't vary significantly in the lacking regions of the observations (it's fairly mountainous), that is justifiable. With respect to this region, I'll give myself a threat-score of 80%. Where I got burned was the eastern extents of my 3-5" and 1-3" zones across New Jersey, Long Island, and southeastern Connecticut. My forecast was reliant on the coastal low developing, which in hindsight, we now know never happened. Had this developed, I think I would have verified a lot better, but seeing the current radar, it looks like Frank's general 1-3" will end up having verified for most members of this, and to him I tip my hat. Well done!! Seeing as though my 1-3" should have spanned from the Delaware River (roughly) to where it meets the 3-5" zone in New Jersey on my map, and my 1-3" zone there should have been a "Coating-1", all of Long Island should have been "Coating-1", Connecticut will likely meet the low end of my criteria save the 3-5" region in the extreme corner of the map, and that this busted for a majority of the members of this board, I will rate my threat score as a 25% for these regions. Keeping things mathematically simple, averaging these out I end up with a final threat-score of 52.5%, which is clearly an "F".

If this was a test in school, I'd be devastated; I won't lie. While this was a tough forecast, as this seems to be a trend in the last two seasons, I REFUSE to use that a cop-out. On the other hand, I am very happy that I spatially and fairly accurately pinpointed the highest impact zone with the greatest amounts. In the end, this comes down to serving as a learning experience, and I don't think only for me. That's the point of doing this; this isn't hating on myself, or being envious of Frank's better forecast. This is a platform for all to engage in constructively criticizing myself, because that's how you (I) learn. Honestly, I think that I've finally found a method of forecasting that I can use consistently in order to predict amounts, even though I got burned this time. I can be happy with that, and look forward to the next one so that I can better develop this new forecasting method. Live and learn, and track on dudes and dudettes!!!

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

syosnow94 wrote:A 3 day discussion about a threat that produced flurries.

What about the past 2 storms that dumped on you and scraped the rest of us with a few inches that melted after a couple hours with none at all the last one? My area and areas to my west and south have gotten several hours of snow in 3 rounds, the first one two nights ago with about 1" that melted pretty quickly. Round 2 last night with another thick coating and round 3 early this morning and continuing now with another 1" or so as of now combining the two. Driving last night around 12am road conditions actually became hazardous as it began to stick on treated roadways after heavy rates for a couple hours. Its not always about what happens in your backyard. I could have whined about the last 2 unmercifully but considering we had a historic blizzard in an unusually warm January and winter overall so far NOBODY should be complaining (besides NEPA and HV people well below avg as of now, cut them a pass on that one). NYC south exceeded seasonal snowfall already, Im around 35" now after this and theres nothing to be complainy about...