Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

[sroc4]

POSTED BY AL (algae888 ):

the warm up looks temporary on gefs...



dare I say -nao  but to little to late...

[HectorO]

Could almost hit 70 next Thursday it looks like.

[Frank_Wx]

We should be looking at temps in the upper 50s and 60s next week. Thursday has a chance to hit 70 degrees. 



Beyond next week temps looK to stay around normal or slightly above. Not looking good at all for a wintry period. Almost baseball season!

[frank 638]

I hate to say this I think winter is over so sad seeing temp in the upper 60 to around 70 yuck I rather see that in April not in March

[Frank_Wx]

There will be a 3 to 4 day stretch next week where temps will run 10 to 15 degrees above normal. We should see a couple of days in the 70s, I will be in Arkansas next week for business. Interesting how my weather down south and weather here in NJ will be similar, 

[Frank_Wx]

Lots of warmth in the LR.

[nutleyblizzard]

As we lament over another missed opportunity for a major snowstorm, our current El Nino's demise is occurring slower than expected. With that in mind, I'm heavily favoring a weak La Nina next winter over a moderate or strong one if not a neutral state altogether. Will be interesting to see how this unfolds during the spring and summer.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The average high temperature for the day doesn't reach 70 until May 11th in NYC.

So it looks like we have May in March coming up. We've had April/May in November and April in December already so now May in March sounds about right.

IHTW

[algae888]

Frank I know it'll be warm for a few days next week but next Friday the GFS tries to give us a snowstorm specially for the Northwest folks sneaky high pressure strong one at that as moisture comes up from the south what's your thoughts

[Dunnzoo]

There will be a 3 to 4 day stretch next week where temps will run 10 to 15 degrees above normal. We should see a couple of days in the 70s, I will be in Arkansas next week for business. Interesting how my weather down south and weather here in NJ will be similar, 

You may have a chance to do some storm chasing Wednesday if you are still there!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

[quote="Frank_Wx"]There will be a 3 to 4 day stretch next week where temps will run 10 to 15 degrees above normal. We should see a couple of days in the 70s, I will be in Arkansas next week for business. Interesting how my weather down south and weather here in NJ will be similar, 

Looks even more abnormal than that Frank.

The average high temperature next Wednesday the 9th is 47 in NYC. It looks to me like we're seeing temps closer to 20 degrees above normal.

Any idea when we finally end these endless months of above normal temperatures? What do you think is the main cause of having a whole year dating back to April 2015 of every month being above normal, except June 2015 which was basically a draw at 0.2 degrees below? Many of those months way above.

Sign me frustrated and looking for answers.

[frank 638]

lee goldberg said for the next 2 weeks of march it will be mild to warm with a record high of 70 for wed .he also said next time if we see some snow will be end of march .i am done done with this winter

[Snow88]

Euro looks interesting at 240

[Frank_Wx]

There will be a 3 to 4 day stretch next week where temps will run 10 to 15 degrees above normal. We should see a couple of days in the 70s, I will be in Arkansas next week for business. Interesting how my weather down south and weather here in NJ will be similar, 

You may have a chance to do some storm chasing Wednesday if you are still there!

I'll be there until Friday! Hey that's actually pretty exciting. I hope it comes to fruition. 

There will be a 3 to 4 day stretch next week where temps will run 10 to 15 degrees above normal. We should see a couple of days in the 70s, I will be in Arkansas next week for business. Interesting how my weather down south and weather here in NJ will be similar, 

Looks even more abnormal than that Frank.

The average high temperature next Wednesday the 9th is 47 in NYC. It looks to me like we're seeing temps closer to 20 degrees above normal.

Any idea when we finally end these endless months of above normal temperatures? What do you think is the main cause of having a whole year dating back to April 2015 of every month being above normal, except June 2015 which was basically a draw at 0.2 degrees below? Many of those months way above.

Sign me frustrated and looking for answers.

CP, I think in the spring and summer last year the -NAO came at a bad time. A negative NAO usually points to warmer weather across the east during warmer months. Then obviously this winter El Nino overwhelmed the pattern. Many people, including myself, believed Nino will dramatically weaken by February. Boy were we wrong.

[Frank_Wx]

As for when this warm spell will end, I think the southeast / Atlantic ridge is in no hurry to leave. Sea surface temps in the western Atlantic are running well above normal. Add in the +NAO and we could be looking at one of the warmest winters on record when all is said and done. Even April could be a warmer month. Probably late spring is when this pattern will completely break down

[Frank_Wx]

Euro looks interesting at 240

It's over. Storm are cutting to our west with no hesitation. Even the GFS, which has a progressive bias, cuts off H5 well to our west. The Atlantic ridge means business. We'll see snow again next year. I need to go back and calculate how much I got this year

[Frank_Wx]

There is not a scenario I can find that insists we won't be in LA Niña next winter. La Niña looks very likely. Here is a graph from Joe Bastardi this morning which he got from SCIPPS. It's a projection of where the sea surface temps are heading. You can see the change from El Nino to LA Nina. And not just any La Nina, but a very strong one. So we could possibly be heading from one extreme to another. 

[weatherwatchermom]

Frank:
La Nina's are good for snow? I have not read up on them yet..and would it not make sense to have a strong la nina after such a strong el nino? almost like a ricochet effect? or am I over simplified in my thinking?

[sroc4]

There is not a scenario I can find that insists we won't be in LA Niña next winter. La Niña looks very likely. Here is a graph from Joe Bastardi this morning which he got from SCIPPS. It's a projection of where the sea surface temps are heading. You can see the change from El Nino to LA Nina. And not just any La Nina, but a very strong one. So we could possibly be heading from one extreme to another. 

He talked about that in his video yesterday. As per SCIPPS projections verbatim it could would the strongest La Nina on record. Should be very interesting next few years of weather with all these extremes. Could make a really interesting Atlantic hurricane year coming off a record La Nina summer of 2017.

[Frank_Wx]

Frank:
La Nina's are good for snow? I have not read up on them yet..and would it not make sense to have a strong la nina after such a strong el nino? almost like a ricochet effect? or am I over simplified in my thinking?

I have not done the research yet to know if LA Niña is good for our area. But you're correct abut the ricochet effect. La Niña is typically followed by El Nino.

[Frank_Wx]

Historically here's the type of patterns LA Niña brings to the US during a winter. The west is cold and wet, the east is warm and dry. But again, there's more to a winter outlook than ENSO 

https://twitter.com/nj_strong_wx/status/706131520898072581

[Math23x7]

FWIW, the last two winters that immediately followed super El Ninos (1983-84, 1998-99) brought a White Christmas to NYC.

[sroc4]

FWIW, the last two winters that immediately followed super El Ninos (1983-84, 1998-99) brought a White Christmas to NYC.

Best stat Ive heard all winter.

[weatherwatchermom]

Frank I found this to help me..

http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/el-nino-and-la-nina-weathers-sibling-rivalry.html

[docstox12]

FWIW, the last two winters that immediately followed super El Ninos (1983-84, 1998-99) brought a White Christmas to NYC.

Can't recall completely the '83-'84 winter but I do know there were no big snowstorms that year.I think '98-'99 was pretty bad overall.So even though there may be a White Christmas, not promising overall.Hate to be a scooch, but just sayin......

[amugs]

FWIW, the last two winters that immediately followed super El Ninos (1983-84, 1998-99) brought a White Christmas to NYC.

Can't recall completely the '83-'84 winter but I do know there were no big snowstorms that year.I think '98-'99 was pretty bad overall.So even though there may be a White Christmas, not promising overall.Hate to be a scooch, but just sayin......

83-84 winter was not bad realling it cold and a few good secs and one mecs storm - remember coming home from a bball game were we went from rain to snow and had about 4-6" area wide - took us 2 hours to get home that night from St. Bennies in Newark. Many storms east to west flow if I rememrb.

Earthlight posted that on next years winter Dec is going to be drool worthy at this stage the way he sees it Thinking J-M is about average - if that frickin ever happens we'd all be like pigs in poop after this winter.

Peasce out for a while peeps. It was a very very interesting ride to say the least one that I personally learned a lot from.

Cheers to all.

[Math23x7]

FWIW, the last two winters that immediately followed super El Ninos (1983-84, 1998-99) brought a White Christmas to NYC.

Can't recall completely the '83-'84 winter but I do know there were no big snowstorms that year.I think '98-'99 was pretty bad overall.So even though there may be a White Christmas, not promising overall.Hate to be a scooch, but just sayin......

Others may disagree with this, but I think any winters with a White Christmas should get bonus points.  Of course, using that logic, the 2010-11, 2013-14, and 2014-15 winters, as cold/snowy as they were, do not get bonus points.  I can't help but think what would have happened if the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010 happened two days earlier.  On one hand, it would have made for a White Christmas.  On the other hand, it would have cancelled many Christmas traditions including Mass on Christmas Eve and dinner with extended family.  Since I'm not Italian, we have our dinner on the 25th. 

PS: Isn't it insane that I'm talking about Christmas in March.  Maybe it's because the last two months have featured measurable snow unlike last December.  Perhaps Easter, which is on March 27th, can feature some snow.  Hey, you never know!

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