Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

[Dunnzoo]

Euro control has a coastal monster in the low range.Sub 980 low south of Long Island.

Maps please.

I know it's all fantasy but it's all I've had to live on this winter.

Not worth posting. It's a longggg way out.

And it's the Euro!

[Frank_Wx]

Mother Nature playing a sick joke. Opening Day next week may only feature temps in the 30s. Morning of only in the teens

[Math23x7]

Well Frank, the 12Z EURO OP showed this ridiculous 500 mb setup in just over a week:

The first image is hr 192 (valid 8 AM Sunday, April 3rd):



The second image is hr 216 (valid 8 AM Monday, April 4th):



Insane setup which I do not want...

[Abba701]

I saw on the Tropical tidbits site blue 500 mb heights for ECMWF which means below normal

[docstox12]

Mother Nature playing a sick joke. Opening Day next week may only feature temps in the 30s. Morning of only in the teens

Oh for crying out loud! Where was this in December?

[frank 638]

Figures we had 75 deg on Xmas to a possible cold snap for the home openers for the Yankees and the mets wow

[algae888]

looks like we have one more storm to track...here are todays cmc and gfs... pretty impressive cold coming 15-20* below normal

[algae888]

[algae888]

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

looks like we have one more storm to track...here are todays cmc and gfs... pretty impressive cold coming 15-20* below normal

Definitely looks in line with this winter. Ten inches on the CNJ coast where it never snows in April, and 4 inches in the HV where April snows are fairly common.

Makes perfect sense.

[amugs]

THE COLD NEXT WEEK IS GOING TO BE ABNORMAL BY ALL MEANS - ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT!
I AM NOT BITING ON THIS STORM YET BUT THE PATTERN IS INTRIGUING TO SAY THE LEAST.
WATCH IT HAPPEN!
1982 REDUX

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

THE COLD NEXT WEEK IS GOING TO BE ABNORMAL BY ALL MEANS - ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT!
I AM NOT BITING ON THIS STORM YET BUT THE PATTERN IS INTRIGUING TO SAY THE LEAST.
WATCH IT HAPPEN!
1982 REDUX

For two mornings in a row NYC had a low of 21 and a high of 30 one of those days. I had a low of 12 the morning after. Amazing for April 8th.

It snowed again four days afterward about 4 inches in the HV just a trace in NYC.

For those that think April snow disappears in a day NYC had a snow pack for 6 days that April, April 7th through the 12th. For cryin out load we have people here that think March snows disappear in a day.

[Snow88]

Euro squashes the low lol

[frank 638]

Here we go again from a foot to 6 inch to a coating of snow enough already lol its been like this all winter excepted the blizzard in jan

[sroc4]

This system as of now is all N stream driven.  I would not bank on a full phase with the S branch based on the info avail at this point. It could still happen though, just unlikely. Going to give it 2-3 or so more days before I take anything serious.  Pattern recognition at this point.  Pattern is such that there will be a very strong ridge in the west which is developing as we speak.  Any time you get that kind a ridge you will get N stream energy to ride the N branch into the CONUS.  The chance is there for some type of wintery event, but thats all I have to say about that.  I will try and post a quick blurb on the 500mb maps later if I have a chance.

[jmanley32]

Hwo for coastal areas calling for high wind warning level winds sat night into sunday. 50 to 60 mph with passage of front. Thoughts frank? Its quite early to b talking of a high magnitude wind event they must b pretty sure.

[jmanley32]

As for a April snowstorm not unheard of but I'm not buying into it until we are within 12 hrs lol

[Snow88]

GGEM is much further north with the storm

[SoulSingMG]

Hwo for coastal areas calling for high wind warning level winds sat night into sunday. 50 to 60 mph with passage of front. Thoughts frank? Its quite early to b talking of a high magnitude wind event they must b pretty sure.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE REGION ON VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT OF 50 TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES CAN
BE DAMAGING AND LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT.
SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY KILLED IF LEFT OUTDOORS.

[amugs]

Euro showing a weak La Nina with a strong PDO wrapped around it this upcoming summer - this is perplexing - I do not believe we have seen such - what this will equate to may be another unchartered water scenario.

[frank 638]

I have been hearing about LA Nina coming for the summer I wonder what kind summer are going to have and the Atlantic hurricane season because it has been quiet for 2 years

[docstox12]

looks like we have one more storm to track...here are todays cmc and gfs... pretty impressive cold coming 15-20* below normal

Definitely looks in line with this winter. Ten inches on the CNJ coast where it never snows in April, and 4 inches in the HV where April snows are fairly common.

Makes perfect sense.

Meh.I'm only expecting the obligatory April flurry or snow shower with this, nothing like April of 1982.And if the 50 to 1 shot came in CP, yes, the Jersey Shore and LI would jackpot while we get our usual 1 to 3 inches.If this S and E trend continues, I'll be happy to be in Florida some day for the winter enjoying the out of doors and warm sun.

[Snow88]

Sunday looks like a wintry day with crashing temps, high winds and a lot of snow squalls.

[jmanley32]

Sunday looks like a wintry day with crashing temps, high winds and a lot of snow squalls.

Euro and GFS seem to have us about a 12 hour perior of increasing winds starting abruptly after the front and hitting a high possibly near or over 60mph, off shore there are gusts over hurricane force being shown. Also shows a large area of light snow or squalls as snow said. Poor plants thought it was spring. We may have some power issues if winds do get up to high wind warning level. NWS has held steadfast for a few days with their HWO and they now are including inland areas on that so that concerns me that it might be even higher in coastal locales. I am just glad its not Sat. because I plan to be outdoors. Sunday bring it on, love wind storms when its not raining can go out and feel the force on me in the hilly fields in my park lol, yeah yeah wind man I know

[algae888]

Sunday morning looks like it may be wild with something called a tropopause fold happening in the atmosphere. I'm going to look that term up but if anyone has information on it would be greatly appreciated. Today's 12z Nam has thundersnow just north of New York City.

[algae888]

I'm hearing the last time something like this happened was 12/9/05. I believe 12 inches of snow fell in interior New England and 100 mile an hour winds on the cape

[algae888]

There looks to be a legit potential and maybe the best one over the next several days around April 8th. All guidance has a deep trough over the east as the polar vortex drops down once again. The pattern looks to become very blocky as systems are slowing things down. low pressure looks the form somewhere along the east coast if it closes off in the right spot we can have a doozy. Amazing still tracking snow in this horrendous winter in early April.

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