Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

[amugs]

FWIW, the last two winters that immediately followed super El Ninos (1983-84, 1998-99) brought a White Christmas to NYC.

Can't recall completely the '83-'84 winter but I do know there were no big snowstorms that year.I think '98-'99 was pretty bad overall.So even though there may be a White Christmas, not promising overall.Hate to be a scooch, but just sayin......

83-84 winter was not bad realling it cold and a few good secs and one mecs storm - remember coming home from a bball game were we went from rain to snow and had about 4-6" area wide - took us 2 hours to get home that night from St. Bennies in Newark. Many storms east to west flow if I rememrb.

Earthlight posted that on next years winter Dec is going to be drool worthy at this stage the way he sees it Thinking J-M is about average - if that frickin ever happens we'd all be like pigs in poop after this winter.

Peasce out for a while peeps. It was a very very interesting ride to say the least one that I personally learned a lot from.

Cheers to all.

[Math23x7]

FWIW, the last two winters that immediately followed super El Ninos (1983-84, 1998-99) brought a White Christmas to NYC.

Can't recall completely the '83-'84 winter but I do know there were no big snowstorms that year.I think '98-'99 was pretty bad overall.So even though there may be a White Christmas, not promising overall.Hate to be a scooch, but just sayin......

Others may disagree with this, but I think any winters with a White Christmas should get bonus points.  Of course, using that logic, the 2010-11, 2013-14, and 2014-15 winters, as cold/snowy as they were, do not get bonus points.  I can't help but think what would have happened if the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010 happened two days earlier.  On one hand, it would have made for a White Christmas.  On the other hand, it would have cancelled many Christmas traditions including Mass on Christmas Eve and dinner with extended family.  Since I'm not Italian, we have our dinner on the 25th. 

PS: Isn't it insane that I'm talking about Christmas in March.  Maybe it's because the last two months have featured measurable snow unlike last December.  Perhaps Easter, which is on March 27th, can feature some snow.  Hey, you never know!

[NjWeatherGuy]

Take the shorts, sunglasses and tshirts out of the closet, gonna need them. Fairly certain (after a piddly snow shower possible tn/tmrw) that winter is over. Dont like the long range look for snow, just see lots of warmth and cutters.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

FWIW, the last two winters that immediately followed super El Ninos (1983-84, 1998-99) brought a White Christmas to NYC.

Can't recall completely the '83-'84 winter but I do know there were no big snowstorms that year.I think '98-'99 was pretty bad overall.So even though there may be a White Christmas, not promising overall.Hate to be a scooch, but just sayin......

Others may disagree with this, but I think any winters with a White Christmas should get bonus points.  Of course, using that logic, the 2010-11, 2013-14, and 2014-15 winters, as cold/snowy as they were, do not get bonus points.  I can't help but think what would have happened if the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010 happened two days earlier.  On one hand, it would have made for a White Christmas.  On the other hand, it would have ecancelled many Christmas traditions including Mass on Christmas Eve and dinner with extended family.  Since I'm not Italian, we have our dinner on the 25th. 

PS: Isn't it insane that I'm talking about Christmas in March.  Maybe it's because the last two months have featured measurable snow unlike last December.  Perhaps Easter, which is on March 27th, can feature some snow.  Hey, you never know!

I agree with that 100% Mike. Where I am in the HV a Christmas with snow on the ground is about a 50-50 but a Christmas Eve or Christmas Day with snow falling those are the magical ones. Had it snowed this Christmas Eve or Day I would have rated this sorry ass winter a C- from a low F just because of that.

[Math23x7]

FWIW, the last two winters that immediately followed super El Ninos (1983-84, 1998-99) brought a White Christmas to NYC.

Can't recall completely the '83-'84 winter but I do know there were no big snowstorms that year.I think '98-'99 was pretty bad overall.So even though there may be a White Christmas, not promising overall.Hate to be a scooch, but just sayin......

Others may disagree with this, but I think any winters with a White Christmas should get bonus points.  Of course, using that logic, the 2010-11, 2013-14, and 2014-15 winters, as cold/snowy as they were, do not get bonus points.  I can't help but think what would have happened if the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010 happened two days earlier.  On one hand, it would have made for a White Christmas.  On the other hand, it would have ecancelled many Christmas traditions including Mass on Christmas Eve and dinner with extended family.  Since I'm not Italian, we have our dinner on the 25th. 

PS: Isn't it insane that I'm talking about Christmas in March.  Maybe it's because the last two months have featured measurable snow unlike last December.  Perhaps Easter, which is on March 27th, can feature some snow.  Hey, you never know!

I agree with that 100% Mike. Where I am in the HV a Christmas with snow on the ground is about a 50-50 but a Christmas Eve or Christmas Day with snow falling those are the magical ones. Had it snowed this Christmas Eve or Day I would have rated this sorry ass winter a C- from a low F just because of that.

CP, In that case, the winter of 1912-13 might not have been that bad.  Yes it was over 100 years ago, but NYC had a seasonal snow total of 15.3" (the cumulative 1869-1912 seasonal snowfall average was 32.3").  However, 11.4" of snow came on Christmas Eve in 1912 from 1 AM to 3:40 PM.  On Christmas Day after some early morning clouds had cleared up, it featured abundant sunshine over a winter wonderland.  In the days after Christmas, there were two rainstorms that wiped out the snow pack and just a few inches of snow fell afterwards.  But it must have been breathtaking for the residents to be a part of it.  If you have the "Northeast Snowstorms" two volume set by Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini, you can see the snow map in Volume II on page 317 to image B under "Selected Snowfalls: 1910-1920.  All of the cities from DC to Boston saw at least several inches of snow.  I can only dream of having an event like that happen in our lifetime, simply because of the timing.  

The specific details of the December 24th, 1912 can be found here: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-A36546A9-7E16-4761-AA88-9138B2CEE525.pdf

[docstox12]

FWIW, the last two winters that immediately followed super El Ninos (1983-84, 1998-99) brought a White Christmas to NYC.

Can't recall completely the '83-'84 winter but I do know there were no big snowstorms that year.I think '98-'99 was pretty bad overall.So even though there may be a White Christmas, not promising overall.Hate to be a scooch, but just sayin......

Others may disagree with this, but I think any winters with a White Christmas should get bonus points.  Of course, using that logic, the 2010-11, 2013-14, and 2014-15 winters, as cold/snowy as they were, do not get bonus points.  I can't help but think what would have happened if the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010 happened two days earlier.  On one hand, it would have made for a White Christmas.  On the other hand, it would have cancelled many Christmas traditions including Mass on Christmas Eve and dinner with extended family.  Since I'm not Italian, we have our dinner on the 25th. 

PS: Isn't it insane that I'm talking about Christmas in March.  Maybe it's because the last two months have featured measurable snow unlike last December.  Perhaps Easter, which is on March 27th, can feature some snow.  Hey, you never know!

Late March 1970, around the 30th...almost one foot in NNJ!

[Taffy]

I'd like to rename this thread the Long in the Face thread.
at least for me.

[NjWeatherGuy]

By the way my avatar represents the cruel joke this winter has been laughing at us, Jack Nicholson style. Teased with a massive blizzard than (fart noise) jack squat. Looking forward to hopefully an active hurricane/severe season we seem to have got an early start on.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Speaking of severe wx, we may get another taste next week, GFS showing impressive lifting and highest cape values in a long time around here.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=03&model_dd=06&model_init_hh=12&fhour=180¶meter=LFTX&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[Quietace]

Speaking of severe wx, we may get another taste next week, GFS showing impressive lifting and highest cape values in a long time around here.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=03&model_dd=06&model_init_hh=12&fhour=180¶meter=LFTX&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

I wouldn't advise looking at more mesoscale variables, similar to the ones you mentioned, until the synoptic set up is more defined.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Speaking of severe wx, we may get another taste next week, GFS showing impressive lifting and highest cape values in a long time around here.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2016&model_mm=03&model_dd=06&model_init_hh=12&fhour=180&parameter=LFTX&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

I wouldn't advise looking at more mesoscale variables, similar to the ones you mentioned, until the synoptic set up is more defined.

Of course, the NAM isnt even in range yet, NAM/RAP combo is best for sniffing these out. Just pointing out a potential with a pretty consistently modeled low passing just to our north would put us in the zone of instability.

[Scullybutcher]

So winter is over?

[NjWeatherGuy]

^Id say so, theoretically it can snow until about late April but not likely this year imo

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

So winter is over?

Many people in our area, especially north and west of NYC would argue that it never began.

[docstox12]

So winter is over?

Many people in our area, especially north and west of NYC would argue that it never began.

For our area CP it's been a bust winter and I don't see much hope now of adding significantly to our meager totals.Best we can hope for is a 2 or 3 inch surprise in late March-early April.

25 to 1 shot the way these temps have been playing out.

Press the reset button and on to next winter.

[devsman]

So what is long range saying temp wise for next week? Not sure what maps to look at but it looks really warm too.

[sroc4]

I dont expect anyone to take this seriously given the current temps, BUT IF there is going to be one last chance at winter weather it will be between March 20th-25th.  Both the GEFS and the EPS are signaling at a -EPO/-AO/-NAO with a trough in the east.  Obv probabilities are low but the signal is there.  

" />
" />

[algae888]

Scott I've been noticing the same thing however it keeps getting pushed back it was originally around the 15th of March that seems to be the theme this winter things look good in the long range until we get inside to 7 days and then it's gone. today's GFS does have a storm off the Carolina coast next Saturday and it looks cold so if the trend is right it will shift North and west as has been the case all winter models had a tough time with this El Nino in the long range especially with Temps

[sroc4]

Scott I've been noticing the same thing however it keeps getting pushed back it was originally around the 15th of March that seems to be the theme this winter things look good in the long range until we get inside to 7 days and then it's gone. today's GFS does have a storm off the Carolina coast next Saturday and it looks cold so if the trend is right it will shift North and west as has been the case all winter models had a tough time with this El Nino in the long range especially with Temps

Yeah Al.  The above analysis should of course be taken with a few of these(see image below).  But just because things havent worked out on a number of occasions doesnt mean the chances are zero.  I know this year is diff than lastyear, but last year I recieved 12.25" of snow after the 20th of March.  I took a walk on the beach yesterday and it felt amazing, but personally I am not ready to let go of winter. So even if its a small chance I am going to cont to monitor.

[HectorO]

So what is long range saying temp wise for next week? Not sure what maps to look at but it looks really warm too.

60s to mid 60s

[amugs]

Can you La Nina incoming - WOW how this HELL NINO has cooled! Needed this in Dec!!

[frank 638]

Yes we did I wonder what this mean for the spring and summer

[amugs]

@Frank - hearing hot and wet overall - hurricane should be a hell uv a lot more interesting this summer than last by far.

Check this chart out this is nutsx10 considering how warm this winter was for these mid and southern latitude cities

[algae888]

scott euro looks interesting palm sunday snow?...

[algae888]

cmc ens

[algae888]

para gfs...

[algae888]

if this verifies we can say goodbye to the warmth for second half of march...

[Sponsored content]