Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

[algae888]

if track is right temps will be cold enough for snow even down to coast...

[algae888]

nice ridge axis in west and trough in east.

[algae888]

6z gefs look nice....

[sroc4]

I dont expect anyone to take this seriously given the current temps, BUT IF there is going to be one last chance at winter weather it will be between March 20th-25th.  Both the GEFS and the EPS are signaling at a -EPO/-AO/-NAO with a trough in the east.  Obv probabilities are low but the signal is there.  

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Quick update on the pattern.   If one last storm is going to come to fruition given the current drivers Im pretty sure you need to have some of the teles on your side.  If one were hoping for one last winter system(and yes I am) to affect the northeast in a pattern that has been dominated by a strong STJ you first have to look to see if there will be a source of cold air. A -EPO is a great teleconnection to have on your side. That blocking feature promotes cold arctic and/or canadian HP to drop into the conus. Key for this time of year if you want winter precip. Last March was dominated by this blocking feature and was probably the single most important driver to why I had over 26" of snow IMBY for the month of March. That being said this March is not like last in that instead of a weak el nino percolating we have one of the strongest ever declining and an extremely potent STJ. So we are going to need more than just a neg EPO for a system to come together IMO. Enter in the NAO. It is forecast to drop neg. between the 16th-18th, and fairly significantly, seen both graphically(about 2 standard deviations) and on the 500mb anomaly maps in both the European and American modeling. It is not uncommon to see a system come to fruition in the NE when teleconnections, esp the NAO, are transitioning from one state to another...Jan23rd 2016 one case in point. This too(-NAO transitioning back towards neutral) is loosely forecast to occur around the time frame in question(between 20th-25th).  

Now lets briefly look back upon the images above.  These were the EPS, and GEFS from March 9th.  Now lets look below and see how the pattern has evolved, or more appropriate, how the modeling has evolved.  Key points:  
1) The trend has been to bring the negatives west and develop the trough S of the Aleutians.  
2) EPO blocking is trending stronger.  
3) The -NAO is present; however, it is an east based one by the current looks of things.  
4) Notice that by pulling the negatives off the west coast and concentrating them into a trough S of the Aleutians it allows the +PNA ridge to spring up.
5) I really like how the Positive heights to our NE in the Canadian maritime are trending weaker rather than stronger on the GEFS.  




So what is all this telling me.  I am gaining confidence that the pattern is setting up the possibility for at least one; maybe two, systems to come together somewhere in the NE between the 20th-25th.  The operational models have been hinting at this now for several days, as they have had these systems come and go, left and right, up and down, as is to be expected at this range.  If a system were to come together climatology is such that the time of day may factor into precip types, but let me not get ahead of myself here.  The pattern is such that if the timing is right with the energy associated with said systems, there will be/should be enough cold air around to promote winter precip.  Obviously track will be key to if any of us see any of it.  At this stage all I can ask for is a pattern that would support a winter event IMBY, which has absolutely been evolving more favorably in the modeling; however, with the track record of this winter it would not surprise me to cont to see big changes on the modeling, for better or worse, as we enter into the medium and short range.  For that reason my confidence is still low.  The trough will likely be transient and ridging back into the east will likely return after this time frame.

[Snow88]

CFSv2 until April 8

[sroc4]

CFSv2 until April 8

[jmanley32]

CFSv2 until April 8

2-4 feet over the next 45 days, ya okayyyyy (what is the track record of this model?), then again this year has been wacky as heck.

[Snow88]

GGEM big rainstorm for everyone

[algae888]

wow euro... bombs lp right over us


does anyone have precip maps and snow totals

[algae888]

maybe march 1958 snowstorm repeat. many forecasters have 58 as a good analog for this winter...


The Pennsylvania Turnpike (Near Morgantown, Pennsylvania). Accumulations included: Allentown: 20.3"; Baltimore: 8.4"; Boston: 6.7"; Bridgeport: 9.3"; Morgantown, PA: 50.0"; New York City: 11.7"; Newark, NJ: 14.8"; Philadelphia: 11.4"; and, Worcester: 18.8"





Source: The New York Times, March 22, 1958 (Associated Press Wirephoto)

[algae888]

with the setup in the north atlantic and the ridge out west in a perfect spot some one near us could get an awful lot of snow if this system bombs out. cutter looking less and less likely. better probability  that storm doesn't form at all as phase misses and we end up with weak system ots. (ukie)

[sroc4]

It may not pan out but I didnt hear no fat lady just yet

[algae888]

found one...
euro snow map. lovely. where are all the diehard snow weenies???

[algae888]

It may not pan out but I didnt hear no fat lady just yet

scott probabilities are probably less than 20% for cutter and 40-40 for bomb and weak ots solutions (missed phase). that's my guess right now

[Snow88]

-AO
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

[jake732]

its to late in the season it just wont happen. maybe snow way way north. euro will come to this as well.

[Snow88]

its to late in the season it just wont happen. maybe snow way way north. euro will come to this as well.

We have seen snow in March and April many times near the coast and inland. It's not too late.

[sroc4]

It may not pan out but I didnt hear no fat lady just yet

scott probabilities are probably less than 20% for cutter and 40-40 for bomb and weak ots solutions (missed phase). that's my guess right now

One thing I would say about the cutter idea is if the ridging to our NE trends stronger (which has hurt us in the recent past as we approached the md and shrt range) it will likely lead to a further west idea and a warmer soln. Im going to stick with saying there is a 100% chance the system either happens or it doesnt for now. Ill start speculating in more detail on track when we are 3-5days out.

[sroc4]

its to late in the season it just wont happen. maybe snow way way north. euro will come to this as well.

This is banter.  Please keep it in there.  Here is a link to the monthly snowfall by year in CPK.  Simply scroll down and see just how many years CPK has had snow in March and April.  Last year I had 12.25" after March 20th. Although it may not pan out IT IS NOT TOO LATE IN THE SEASON.  

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

[Quietace]

its to late in the season it just wont happen. maybe snow way way north. euro will come to this as well.

This is banter.  Please keep it in there.  Here is a link to the monthly snowfall by year in CPK.  Simply scroll down and see just how many years CPK has had snow in March and April.  Last year I had 12.25" after March 20th.  Although it may not pan out IT IS NOT TOO LATE IN THE SEASON.  

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

Based on general climatology of the area, Scott is correct. It is irrational to broadbrush a synoptic set up that is favorable for EC cyclogenesis due to a date on a calendar.

[frank 638]

we had snow in late march into early april .in april 8 2003 we had a storm that cancelled the home opener for the yankees nyc had 4 inches of snow.the blizzard of april 1982 .will we see snow in late march or april u never know just like yogi berra would say it ain,t over till its over

[algae888]

12z para gfs agrees with euro...

[algae888]

h5 on para gfs looks great. perfect western ridge and building instead of collapsing, nice sharp digging trough, 50/50 low, east based -nao and heights rising ahead of  trough.

also note how pv energy gets pulled into the trough

[algae888]

close off over eastern li

[sroc4]

EPS looks good too.  Id still like to see the trough off the WC pull back a bit further west. Too much time still to get excited though.

[algae888]

Scott what I like about this threat that's different than the last several threats we had is that we are now inside seven days actually the start time is 6 days out and it has been trending better for our area. The last several threats we had in the seven-to-ten day range and once it got inside 7 Days model started showing the Cutter solution.

[Frank_Wx]

It looks like we have another cut off ridge in the western Arctic that may try to push the PV south and supply us the cold. There definitely seems to be a big storm looming, just a matter of determining wet or white. If the NAO goes negative and is ideally placed, I think we have a shot. Euro was a bomb! 

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