Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

[algae888]

I'm hearing the last time something like this happened was 12/9/05. I believe 12 inches of snow fell in interior New England and 100 mile an hour winds on the cape

[algae888]

There looks to be a legit potential and maybe the best one over the next several days around April 8th. All guidance has a deep trough over the east as the polar vortex drops down once again. The pattern looks to become very blocky as systems are slowing things down. low pressure looks the form somewhere along the east coast if it closes off in the right spot we can have a doozy. Amazing still tracking snow in this horrendous winter in early April.

[WOLVES1]

What are you talking about isn't winter just starting?

[algae888]

What are you talking about isn't winter just starting?

you're right wolves. the first 10 days of april may have the biggest - temp departures all winter.

[Math23x7]

NOAA's 30-day outlook, temperature wise.....

[algae888]

There looks to be a legit potential and maybe the best one over the next several days around April 8th. All guidance has a deep trough over the east as the polar vortex drops down once again. The pattern looks to become very blocky as systems are slowing things down. low pressure looks the form somewhere along the east coast if it closes off in the right spot  we can have a doozy. Amazing still tracking snow in this horrendous winter in early April.

cmc
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016040112/gem_z500_mslp_us_30.png
if it closes off in right spot think we all see snow. so snow and wind sunday morning some snow or mix Monday and then maybe a big one to end next week. this is the best period of tracking snow this fall/winter/ spring season. what an unusual year.
note cp would say fall/fall/spring

[Snow88]

Check out the GFS

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=192&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160401+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=195&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_195_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160401+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=198&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_198_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160401+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

[Snow88]

Euro has a coastal snowstorm next weekend lol

[algae888]

upton disco...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
THEN DEVELOPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A PIECE OF THE
POLAR VORTEX MEANDERING ABOUT HUDSON BAY.
euro


ukie this would be an absolute bomb. neg tilt low off the nc coast and piece of pv involved.

cmc retrogrades low

[algae888]

6z gfs...

[algae888]

don't assume exact numbers here but if models are correct places from ne pa through Albany south to Peekskill could get more snow this week than the entire winter

[docstox12]

don't assume exact numbers here but if models are correct places from ne pa through Albany south to Peekskill could get more snow this week than the entire winter

Would be nice for the guys above I 84 Al, but the way these clown maps have fooled us all winter, I don't think so.NWS already lowered the snow totals for tonight into Sunday morning from 1-2 inches to maybe an inch.Not expecting anything more than the dreaded "coating to an inch" over the next few days.

[Math23x7]

The upper level patern at hr 240 of the 12Z EURO OP shows a ridge with 570+ heights over Greenland. Where the heck has this been the last couple of months and last December???

[Snow88]

GFS now shows a coastal for next weekend. GGEM is quite similiar but more offshore.

[Snow88]

Of course this happens now instead of during the winter

[docstox12]

LOL, that's Mother Nature for you.She sets the clock on these patterns.

[Snow88]

GFS,EURO and GGEM tries to get a coastal going this upcoming weekend

[amugs]

GFS,EURO and GGEM tries to get a coastal going this upcoming weekend

EURO = BOMBS AWAY SNOW WEENIES!!!!!!!!!!!!




CMC - developes it late SNE/NE Special





GFS - move it closer to the coast

[Snow88]

Upton
A COMPLEX DEEPENING TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD/DAYS 3 - 7/THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES INFLUENCING THE WEATHER PATTERN RATHER THAN ONE DOMINATING AN INTENSIFYING PHASED SYSTEM AS SOME EARLIER SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED.

[amugs]

More April snow yeaahhhhhh!!!

and cold

[Bkdude]

Times are messed up on postings. Says 530 pm on my end

[Math23x7]

On this forum: Profile: preferences: then choose the Time Zone (in our case, New York -4). Why does it do that? I don't know.

[Bkdude]

Thanks. will try it. Never had to do that before. I have this page set to homescreen on phone. A lot of zoomin in. But works

[sroc4]

This is the pattern I and many others thought would take shape middle to end of Feb.  It would have made for an unbelievable ride.  Should have known that the chemical properties of water simply wouldn't allow for such a large area in the Trop Pac to cool fast enough, and more importantly have the atmosphere respond to it in time.  The temp differences in the spring on LI vs just inland due to the cold winter waters always takes time for us out here to catch up with high temps when the winds come in off the water.  In this case it was simply on a much grander scale involving the entire trop Pac and its influences on the atmosphere as a whole.  

The rapidly declining El Nino and the Strat warming and strat zonal wind anomaly reversal that took place mid march was a month to a month and a half too late for what I thought was going to happen.    





I have to believe that the strength of the El Nino played an important role in preventing the strat from behaving sooner, although I could be wrong on this.

[amugs]

Food for thought on this summer - if this correlation were to come true - by another board poster but great info here
Now that April 2016 has officially had a trace of snow in NYC, this could very well mean that the summer of 2016 will be cooler than last year and nowhere near the end of the world torch it seems so many are expecting.

Here are years with April snowfall in NYC going back to 1972.

April 1972
April 1975
April 1982
April 1983
April 1986
April 1990
April 1996
April 2000
April 2003
April 2006
April 2014

Only the Summers of 1983 and 2006 were hot. The summer of 2000 had a top 10 coolest JULY.

SUMMERS OF 1995,1999,2002,2005, 2013 and 2015 either were very hot or had a period of heat for 30 days which was noteworthy and the following Aprils had snow.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

You're correct, and I know nothing other than every strong El Niño season has been memorably bad.

Go Yanks!!!

[weatherwatchermom]

More April snow yeaahhhhhh!!!

and cold

if this comes true, I am going to freeze my a.. off at the baseball snack bar(5 hour duty) on Sunday!!

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