2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Too early to get really concerned as its still about 10 to 12 days out per 12z gfs but yeah this is def a posdibly scary and devastating storm for at least the carribean and imo the ec. The cmc came back west in line with gfs at hr 240.

Snow88 wrote:GEFS still like  a storm a long the coast

how many days is that now? It's been pretty consistant. I hate being 12 days away from any kind of storm hurricane or winter. Time just drags lol

And I didn't mean ull I meant the cutoff low is what brings it so close. If that's actually there we are in big trouble.

97l.has 30/90 now so nhc pretty confident in genesis in 5 day. Euro was interesting actually keeping this far east going north then west of pr and ots. Is that a viable solition. I've been reading it's unlikely it curves that much.

jmanley32 wrote:97l.has 30/90 now so nhc pretty confident in genesis in 5 day. Euro was interesting actually keeping this far east going north then west of pr and ots. Is that a viable solition. I've been reading it's unlikely it curves that much.

Its def a plausible soln given the latest trends and an OTS soln needs to be considered.  Now ULL are hard to forecast on modeling in the LR so what I'm about to outline is merely a trend I see regarding the GFS towards the Euro.  It is by no means the final soln nor am I ready to lock it in, but the latest trends are possibly hinting at an escape OTS.  It will still likely affect the Islands of the Caribbean in this scenario but not the US.

Lets look at the 12z European from today starting 12z Sept 30th(00z was similar)




Now Lets look at 500mb on the GFS from 00z last night beginning same time frame.






Now compare todays 12z GFS which trended towards the Euro.  Here is why.  Make sure to take a peak back up at the 00z for comparison. Again same time frame

Here is Levi Cowin's video about 97L soon to be Mathew. Discusses some of the things I outlined this morning.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

thank sroc so far 18z gfs has the ull much further north and moving ne, i would imagine that may not cause such a drstic curve, i know it IS going to curve at some pt. About to look at Euro ensembles but i read on a tropical forum that the Euro ensembles do not match the operational. Some even still in GOM, far from a solution as you said.

Pretty crazy to imagine a cat 4/5 headed up this close to the coast, 925mb.  Way out there but I have not seen intensities like this in as long as i can remember even with phantom storms.

wow, look at the size of this monster as it passes to the east of us, not far enough away nor in time frame to say we are safe though.

This posted on another forum "Also the trough digging in around 252-288 is concerning...it has a Sandy-like feel at the end too.." So lots at play here, I remember with a storm that never happened frank had a banner about 12 days before a storm that was supposed to hit saying possible storm. Might a banner be put up if we continue to see close to the coast senarios of such disasterous intensity storms? I think I can answer this my self but was just curious why Frank did that last time and not now being this is showing a far worse storm. And god help anyone in the islands.
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jmanley32 wrote:This posted on another forum "Also the trough digging in around 252-288 is concerning...it has a Sandy-like feel at the end too.." So lots at play here, I remember with a storm that never happened frank had a banner about 12 days before a storm that was supposed to hit saying possible storm.  Might a banner be put up if we continue to see close to the coast senarios of such disasterous intensity storms? I think I can answer this my self but was just curious why Frank did that last time and not now being this is showing a far worse storm. And god help anyone in the islands.    
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IF it misses the first deep layer trough (ULL) I outlined above and IF it is traveling north somewhere just off the coast and IF the timing of the next incoming trough is right and IF it digs and tilts negative then it could hook back into the coast. A lot of IFs

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:This posted on another forum "Also the trough digging in around 252-288 is concerning...it has a Sandy-like feel at the end too.." So lots at play here, I remember with a storm that never happened frank had a banner about 12 days before a storm that was supposed to hit saying possible storm.  Might a banner be put up if we continue to see close to the coast senarios of such disasterous intensity storms? I think I can answer this my self but was just curious why Frank did that last time and not now being this is showing a far worse storm. And god help anyone in the islands.    
"

IF it misses the first deep layer trough (ULL) I outlined above and IF it is traveling north somewhere just off the coast and IF the timing of the next incoming trough is right and IF it digs and tilts negative then it could hook back into the coast. A lot of IFs

All those things gotta happen together? It couldn't just ride the coast if it was further west, not talking a sandy track,i wouldn't imagine that (But it is the size of Sandy or close on that run and looks a lot like one of the in initial runs from sandy i saw in 2012 on the euro. but ya a lot of IF's. Once we have genesis in 3-4 days we should get a clearer idea. But yeah I am learning that theres so much more at play than just the system itself, and alot of people are also saying not only are the TC badly modeled this year but so have long term upper level troughs ridges etc. We Track.

Wow, Cat 1-5 through 5 day and out to 180. Tahts some rapid intensification, haiti has now become the bullseye and that would be catastrophic.

wayyy west of 18z, gives ts conditions to eastern parts area. surface pressure 944mb, getting out of fantasy land 8-10 days away if it moves that fast. scary run senarion if it backs anymore west.



Is it the fact that Low pulled out and the HP got to the east of it why it made it more towards coast?

I hate to say it but this may not pull the track but this has sandy intensity or higher written all over it on that run, the eastward movement may have stopped and we may now see it stay this way or back even further west.

CMC is further OTS but we know how the CMC handles tropical systems =)

The 0z GFS is further west, CMC has remained east. I can see how this can remain well offshore, however I can also see interaction with the GL low and a change in timing with that Atlantic high that could cause the storm to merge with the GL low similar to what the GFS was showing earlier causing a partial phase and a further west track. While not the same setup, it is an incredibly strongly progged system by many models and also very moisture laden and has some similarities with the S-word storm from 4 years ago. I would watch 97L very closely as it already looks fairly robust but not incredibly deep or organized just yet. Next few days are important and I will be here and we will have a busy week of model watching in my opinion.

Euro is hundreds of miles west from 12z 00z is now in southern bahamas instead ots. West the models are starting. I had a feeling frank would add this to the banner. Def bears more watching if the models continue to show it just off shore or even further west to give us full impacts which if intensity is right would b very bad. Ehh cmc don't even really watch it.

LR will cont to be uncertain with this system.  Euro conts to flip and flop.  Notice the differences in the Ridging and trough in the Atlantic and over the CONUS and refer to what I outlined last night.  

12z yesterday:


00z Last night:


We first have to nail down what the pattern is doing in the 3-5day.  There are still differences in intensity and track to 97L as it enters the Caribbean.  

Euro


GFS


CMC

Yep and as we speak O6z gfs is heading for bermuda. No model agreement past Haiti area. To be expected.

6z GFS is way east, yep, this is gonna be a long week and it just started.

When the NAVGEM is west of the GFS its a bit concerning IMO, its 0z run looked to take aim at Florida and 6z running now.

Some of the 0z GFS ensemble members are just frightening by looking at them. The way it captures....

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_0z/ensloopnew.html#picture

Isn't it to far south to delvelop at 8* lay??

6z Navgem

Way west of the GFS

Nj wow many of those pull a you know whom 4 yrs ago. I'm not go get burned like with joquin but this is unfolding so far to b a possibly really bad situation. That could b a over or understatement right now. I expect 12z gfs will b back to the coast. Winshield wipers full speed for a while. My question is why does frank say 6th and 9th. Looks earlier than that maybe 5th to 6th bout 10 days or so.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:When the NAVGEM is west of the GFS its a bit concerning IMO, its 0z run looked to take aim at Florida and 6z running now.

why is this concerning I thought nav gem was a pretty bad model. Is that why? If it's show in close then the gfs should too? Which it has plenty of runs. I think those ensembles are the only ones so far that have had direct landfall in the area.

oldtimer wrote:Isn't it to far south to delvelop at 8* lay??

what we're u trying to ask here? It being south is a good thing unless it plows into sa but so far there no solution showing that. Latest intensity models have it a ts in 36 hrs and ramps up over 5 days to as high as cat 2 to 5.