Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

by **algae888** Sat Aug 27, 2016 2:48 pm

sroc4 wrote:
algae888 wrote:Scott also the euro now develops 99 L into a hurricane in hits the panhandle of Florida. I'm assuming that's about a cat 2

Yup see above. Ive been saying it for awhile. Cant fall asleep yet

I agree. Any low pressure in the Gulf or along the Eastern Seaboard has to be watched carefully as models probably won't have a great handle on it until we're under 72 hours

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Aug 27, 2016 2:51 pm

HWRF anyone? Pretty clear 99L still has plenty of potential left.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 15 Hwrf_goes4_99L_22.png.67f5cb7074e037819c39dc6a484d1276

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 15 Hwrf_goes4_99L_22.png.67f5cb7074e037819c39dc6a484d1276

by **sroc4** Sat Aug 27, 2016 2:55 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:HWRF anyone? Pretty clear 99L still has plenty of potential left.

Giddy up....just when I thought they were letting me out...they suck me back in! lol If you have a chance check out Levis video Frank...very educational. I am trying to convince him to do winter videos, but I think the Tropics are his niche.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Aug 27, 2016 3:06 pm

I once spoke with Levi when I was working with EPAWA. He straight up told me he finds winter weather boring. He said the only time it interests him is when a Nor'easter undergoes cyclo genesis and develops and eye.

Haha

by **sroc4** Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:49 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I once spoke with Levi when I was working with EPAWA. He straight up told me he finds winter weather boring. He said the only time it interests him is when a Nor'easter undergoes cyclo genesis and develops and eye.

Haha

Ha that's hilarious. It's too bad. With the way that brain works he prob would be very good at it.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:07 pm

So pouch 25 is marked now go b a good one to track I think. Then again 99l was progged to b huge well b4 now. 99l.was blown up by the euro at 12z. I curious to look at the ensembles for lr euro. I think this could be a threat to us depending on h5 setup. As we know that xan and does change. Certainly 10 to 15 or so days out.

by **algae888** Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:15 pm

18z Gfs took a step towards euro. Same track just weaker

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:40 pm

Lots of PW for 99L to work with. As long as the center of circulation avoids moving over an island, and shear remains weak or non-existent, then I think it has a chance to develop into a Hurricane once it enters the Gulf.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 15 Latest72hrs

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 15 Latest72hrs

Looks like the LLC is between 75 and 76 longitude; 22 latitude

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 15 Rbtop_lalo-animated

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:42 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:48 pm

Favorable conditions south of FL into the Gulf

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 15 Wg8shr

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:59 pm

Anniversary of Hurricane Irene. 5 years ago today she was over the Carolinas. Cranford was very flooded from that storm. Literally needed canoes to get around.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 15 14067476_1094836683887642_7499172245338537166_n

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 15 14067476_1094836683887642_7499172245338537166_n

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:04 pm

Fantasyland scare tactics, headed on a direct NW track no signs of going OTS on that run, If it did it better turn quick cuz last few frames barreling to midatlantic. What is that a freaking cat 4?

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 15 Gfs_ms14

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 15 Gfs_ms14

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:06 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Fantasyland scare tactics, headed on a direct NW track no signs of going OTS on that run, If it did it better turn quick cuz last few frames barreling to midatlantic. What is that a freaking cat 4?

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 15 18z_gfs

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:06 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Anniversary of Hurricane Irene. 5 years ago today she was over the Carolinas. Cranford was very flooded from that storm. Literally needed canoes to get around.

Wasn't too bad here, was expecting much worse. Got a ton of rain and there was quite a bit of tree damage but we didn't lose power.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:07 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Fantasyland scare tactics, headed on a direct NW track no signs of going OTS on that run, If it did it better turn quick cuz last few frames barreling to midatlantic. What is that a freaking cat 4?

IF this ever happened and made it to this area, when was the last time a destructive storm of that size and power came in here or near here,? If that kept going out Frank would it make landfall or turn OTS at the last second? It looks like theres a HP that would keep it NW. I know the likelihood of this happening like this is crazy but check out the Euro ensemble control. We have a lot of support 15 days out.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 15 Eps_sl10

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 15 Eps_sl10

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:10 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Fantasyland scare tactics, headed on a direct NW track no signs of going OTS on that run, If it did it better turn quick cuz last few frames barreling to midatlantic. What is that a freaking cat 4?

If that run went out further, that probably would of made landfall somewhere around the mid to upper atlantic seaboard with that trough in place causing major damage. Don't sweat it though. Purely for entertainment purposes only.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:12 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Fantasyland scare tactics, headed on a direct NW track no signs of going OTS on that run, If it did it better turn quick cuz last few frames barreling to midatlantic. What is that a freaking cat 4?

If that run went out further, that probably would of made landfall somewhere around the mid to upper atlantic seaboard with that trough in place causing major damage. Don't sweat it though. Purely for entertainment purposes only.

You can't say its impossible, with the SST and the upper level patterns I think anything is possible no matter how slim. But ya at this time entertainment, now if on Sept 5th its still showing this then I go be sweating. That would put NJ and NYC area in the worst NW quadrant, I couldnt even imagine. I woul;dnt wish that on anyone, thats OD, even for me.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Fantasyland scare tactics, headed on a direct NW track no signs of going OTS on that run, If it did it better turn quick cuz last few frames barreling to midatlantic. What is that a freaking cat 4?

If that run went out further, that probably would of made landfall somewhere around the mid to upper atlantic seaboard with that trough in place causing major damage. Don't sweat it though. Purely for entertainment purposes only.

You can't say its impossible, with the SST and the upper level patterns I think anything is possible no matter how slim. But ya at this time entertainment, now if on Sept 5th its still showing this then I go be sweating. That would put NJ and NYC area in the worst NW quadrant, I couldnt even imagine. I woul;dnt wish that on anyone, thats OD, even for me.

I can only imagine what this chatroom site would be like. I for one would be excited and fearful at the same time tracking that monster.

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 27, 2016 8:59 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Fantasyland scare tactics, headed on a direct NW track no signs of going OTS on that run, If it did it better turn quick cuz last few frames barreling to midatlantic. What is that a freaking cat 4?

If that run went out further, that probably would of made landfall somewhere around the mid to upper atlantic seaboard with that trough in place causing major damage. Don't sweat it though. Purely for entertainment purposes only.

You can't say its impossible, with the SST and the upper level patterns I think anything is possible no matter how slim. But ya at this time entertainment, now if on Sept 5th its still showing this then I go be sweating. That would put NJ and NYC area in the worst NW quadrant, I couldnt even imagine. I woul;dnt wish that on anyone, thats OD, even for me.
I can only imagine what this chatroom site would be like. I for one would be excited and fearful at the same time tracking that monster.

I can't lie I'd be excited too but yes fearful as that would make sandy look like a breezy day. They marked it already and in one day went up to 40 chance of development. Long way go with that one but I think and many other places I have read feel very confident this will b a very strong long tracking storm. Posdibly our ace maker for the majority of season. We will see. As for 99l I'm getting bored either develop or die already lol

by **jmanley32** Sat Aug 27, 2016 9:00 pm

Did ypu see the euro control I posted above. Also scary but further south but could bring something up the coast. A cat 1 is enough to wreak havoc up here let alone a 2 to 4.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:23 am

GFS keeps 99L weak still. CMC deepens it.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 15 Gem_mslp_pcpn_us_17

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:44 am

Frank out to hr 210 on gfs it appears that 99l is just sitting off north Florida in Atlantic actually having gained a bit of strength and I have read by posters on tropics boards that this might actually be causing a weakness which is,what allows this new possible system to turn nw toward the coast? Some have argued that 99l being there would also interact enough to kick it ots. Others see a ec landfall. I know it's much to far out but would u say that if 99l is still there there would b a interaction? I would imagine it do something to the new wave.

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:45 am

Also the new wave let's just for sorting sake call it 92l cuz thsts prolly what it's going to be, is so far stronger than 18z.

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:49 am

Jeeze full resolution has to b 92l at 240 hrs at 926mb just north of pr right before truncation. Thsts one serioysly strong storm. Def go b keeping an eye on this one and o9l looks to just b heading ots at this time.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:54 am

jmanley32 wrote:Frank out to hr 210 on gfs it appears that 99l is just sitting off north Florida in Atlantic actually having gained a bit of strength and I have read by posters on tropics boards that this might actually be causing a weakness which is,what allows this new possible system to turn nw toward the coast? Some have argued that 99l being there would also interact enough to kick it ots. Others see a ec landfall. I know it's much to far out but would u say that if 99l is still there there would b a interaction? I would imagine it do something to the new wave.

Hello jman. According to 500mb height anonalies, it appears to be 2 things that capture the beast Hurricane around September 11th.

#1, yes the remnants of 99L brings a weakness in the heights, or mid level trough, which tries to capture the hurricane.

#2, which I think is most important, is a ridge is building over top the east coast. Upward motion or rising air is going to deepen this tropical cyclone and pave a path for landfall somewhere along the east coast.

See that spectacle over the Carolinas? That is 99L. You can see how the isopleths connect and 99L is basically reeling the large Hurricane into the coast. There's a huge ridge over the northeast too.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 15 Gfs_z500a_atl_46

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 15 Gfs_z500a_atl_46

by **jmanley32** Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:00 am

Landfall for pouch 25 in Carolinas as a cat 3 plus. Then starts a eastern turn. Too close. But still entertainment time frame. But that's a really bad senario and closest it's come to this area.

by **Frank_Wx** Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:00 am

Another ridge forms in the Midwest and slides east which prevents the Hurricane from coming all the way up the coast

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 15 Gfs_z500a_atl_51

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 15 Gfs_z500a_atl_51

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