2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

NjWeatherGuy wrote:When the NAVGEM is west of the GFS its a bit concerning IMO, its 0z run looked to take aim at Florida and 6z running now.

why is this concerning I thought nav gem was a pretty bad model. Is that why? If it's show in close then the gfs should too? Which it has plenty of runs. I think those ensembles are the only ones so far that have had direct landfall in the area.

oldtimer wrote:Isn't it to far south to delvelop at 8* lay??

what we're u trying to ask here? It being south is a good thing unless it plows into sa but so far there no solution showing that. Latest intensity models have it a ts in 36 hrs and ramps up over 5 days to as high as cat 2 to 5.

jmanley32 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:When the NAVGEM is west of the GFS its a bit concerning IMO, its 0z run looked to take aim at Florida and 6z running now.

why is this concerning I thought nav gem was a pretty bad model. Is that why? If it's show in close then the gfs should too? Which it has plenty of runs. I think those ensembles are the only ones so far that have had direct landfall in the area.

Because it typically has a progressive bias. The EURO came west last night I forgot to take that into consideration as well.

Here is the fight once again between the Euro and GFS - I have read that the euro's physics is much better with systems that for below 20* - we'll see if this is true (Sandy, Joaquin, Wilma)

Euro - deep trough in west/Plains and HP/Ridge in SE/Eastern Can


GFS - Cut off low hanging off the coast - allows it to stay off the coast with a ridge further west on SE Can over Hudson bay



Imagine if this was a winter storm at 960 over teh benchmark - MADOONNNNEEE - I think I would lose it totally!!! One day Jerry!!

Yeah the Euro and NAVGEM are both well west, GFS IMO had a hiccup this morning. But we are likely still days away from consistent model agreement, I mean the Euro jumped hundreds of miles west. GFS headed much further east, oy go be a long week, hopefully we will be fully in tracking and better consensus by the weekend.

Juan. Very seldom do you get development south of 10•. The chances are less likely. That's all I'm stating

oldtimer wrote:Juan.  Very seldom do you get development south of 10•. The chances are less likely. That's all I'm stating

heh oldtimer its Jon, I am not latino.

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GFS looks like its popping up at 70w at 162 so a hair east at 12z by the early looks of it. Might be nitpicking but feel it may come in E of 6z.

It goes way east OTS, a lot people saying the extreme turn north is due to it showing a cat 5, and its likely bogus run. Still models all over the place, they give me a headache lol

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We will have better model output once they start this. Intensity models show a TS in 24-48 hrs.

Okay going all the way out on GFS its headed OTS then recurves back west towards us and then back NE before getting the chance to making a landfall, that's pretty crqzy run, could it be showing a sandy like scenario and eventually turn out to be further west? What causes that fantasyland curve back WNW.

Edit: Just saw Ensembles, umm sandy recurve and looks like landfall on many of the members. That's concerning since the operational does the retrograde just way forther east. Any thoughts?

jmanley32 wrote:Okay going all the way out on GFS its headed OTS then recurves back west towards us and then back NE before getting the chance to making a landfall, that's pretty crqzy run, could it be showing a sandy like scenario and eventually turn out to be further west? What causes that fantasyland curve back WNW.

Edit: Just saw Ensembles, umm sandy recurve and looks like landfall on many of the members.  That's concerning since the operational does the retrograde just way forther east.  Any thoughts?

Setup is complex and not quite the same. I am concerned by the strong high pressure building over New England and pressing down, that places the path of least resistance for the storm to track seemingly straight into the mid-Atl coast.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Okay going all the way out on GFS its headed OTS then recurves back west towards us and then back NE before getting the chance to making a landfall, that's pretty crqzy run, could it be showing a sandy like scenario and eventually turn out to be further west? What causes that fantasyland curve back WNW.

Edit: Just saw Ensembles, umm sandy recurve and looks like landfall on many of the members.  That's concerning since the operational does the retrograde just way forther east.  Any thoughts?

Setup is complex and not quite the same. I am concerned by the strong high pressure building over New England and pressing down, that places the path of least resistance for the storm to track seemingly straight into the mid-Atl coast.

At 500mb if the center of the ridge to the N is being modeled correctly its too far West. It needs to be centered further E over Nova Scotia or even just off the Canadain coast to prevent an escape out to sea. The trough in the west looks too far away to capture it yet.

jmanley32 wrote:

oldtimer wrote:Isn't it to far south to delvelop at 8* lay??

what we're u trying to ask here? It being south is a good thing unless it plows into sa but so far there no solution showing that. Latest intensity models have it a ts in 36 hrs and ramps up over 5 days to as high as cat 2 to 5.

That may happen but dont be surprised to see the timing of intensification to be pushed back by a few days at least.

Okay so far 12z Euro is down near Aruba....

Finally headed NW for Jamaica, well west.

Euro still ends up in similar spot headed NW or NNW, reading there is a trough coming in that could make this a sandy-esq run could it go out further (not saying this would be sandy just what I am reading on tropics forums, some comments people make are not too smart though let me tell u). 12z CMC is very close to hitting us.

jmanley32 wrote:Euro still ends up in similar spot headed NW or NNW, reading there is a trough coming in that could make this a sandy-esq run could it go out further (not saying this would be sandy just what I am reading on tropics forums, some comments people make are not too smart though let me tell u).  12z CMC is very close to hitting us.

What forums Jman?

Scott yes i expect this to slow down as the pattern is becoming very amplified over the next 7-10 days. Euro is much slower than gfs with cmc in between. Jman euro looks like there could be a capture as trough over central us goes neg. However to have a sandy like outcome many many things have to time out just right. Thats why sandy is a 1 in a 100 year storm. Still possible but odds are probably less than 10%. Still a long ways to go and all outcomes still on the table. Lets just hope matthew stays weak or is ots.

Difference is what I have showed in my post yesterday that SIR SROC (love that medieval style name) pointed to. Euro 500mb pattern - the trough in the west/midwest is deep and HP raised height sare over SE CAN - block the storm from barreling OTS - 1034 HP is a stout ridge.



Lots of time and we must learn that they depicted such for Hermine and it got 75 more east than modelled

CAT 3 on EURO in Bahamas - that would be devastating to those low level topography islands.

Scary Scenario.

I can't post them on my phone but the GFS has Matthew east of Cape Cod at hour 240 Euro has it just north of Cuba

Thats a full lat trough on euro. From northern canada to gulf coast. Pretty impressive. Love to see that in winter

I'm going to say this I don't want NO Hurricane up here at all. I worked in Sandy and many homes in my area got destroyed. OTS is what I hope happens

amugs wrote:Difference is what I have showed in my post yesterday that SIR SROC (love that medieval style name) pointed to. Euro 500mb pattern - the trough in the west/midwest is deep and HP raised height sare over SE CAN - block the storm from barreling OTS - 1034 HP is a stout ridge.



Lots of time and we must learn that they depicted such for Hermine and it got 75 more east than modelled

 If one wants to see a devastating hit by a major hurricane along the east coast, you need to see a slower moving storm like the EURO depicts. In doing so it misses the first trough and would of surely shown a capture/phase with the second deep trough approaching if the model run would of continued. On the other hand, you have a faster moving storm on the GFS thus an OTS solution. Its all about timing and things should become much clearer by this weekend.

I do not want to bash any forums as I think that's against rules too so I take back my comment. Just people saying there are def trends and this is def OTS etc. I know it won't necessarily take a Sandy track but there are also other ways this could have a really bad hit on us if things come together right, do not need a sandy track to get a really bad hurricane. I hear ya skins and I wish hurricanes did not fascinate me so much but the fact is I am amazed by what they can do unfortunately it causes a lot of sadness destruction and possible loss of life. Living inland I guess it does not show me the real problems that those on the shore suffer. So while I do not wish harm on anyone I am kinda crazy in that I would like to see a massive hurricane once in my life. Sandy was not really a hurricane however she certainly packed a punch storm surge wise and did have decent winds, this could pack a much higher wind impact if intensity is correct, but who knows at this pt.