Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

[amugs]

Cold shot coming into play M-W next week and hangs a bit to keep things about N to slightly above through xmass now. Snow pack will be pretty good if things play out for I 80 N and West - sorry coast and LI to much Ocean warm influence this time of year.

GFS says hi Fri into Sat - 3-6 N & W and 2-4 NYC metro

[algae888]

Cold shot coming into play M-W next week and hangs a bit to keep things about N to slightly above through xmass now. Snow pack will be pretty good if things play out for I 80 N and West - sorry coast and LI to much Ocean warm influence this time of year.

GFS says hi Fri into Sat - 3-6 N & W and 2-4 NYC metro

Yes mugs too much cold air around for it to get significantly warmer Before Christmas. If the long-range patterning verifies and stays for a while then it could get warm around the new year but I'm skeptical about that. Also this being a good December or not varies on where you're located in the metro area. Areas as far away as 25 miles from the coast are going to have a nice December while coastal areas will frown on this month. Places like orange Ulster Sullivan counties already have more snow than last year or will have it by this weekend

[snow247]

[oldtimer]

Snow. Love the chart. So true

[frank 638]

Aswome chart esp people in the south goes nuts

[Frank_Wx]

The Parallel GFS showing snow for those N&W of NYC on Xmas Day.......

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The Parallel GFS showing snow for those N&W of NYC on Xmas Day.......

Considering the pattern we're headed into before Christmas Day, that would be a Christmas Miracle for sure.

[rb924119]

The Parallel GFS showing snow for those N&W of NYC on Xmas Day.......

Wasn't going to say anything, but I have actually developed an interest in this time frame over the last few days

[algae888]

The Parallel GFS showing snow for those N&W of NYC on Xmas Day.......

Wasn't going to say anything, but I have actually developed an interest in this time frame over the last few days

yes rb next week looks like systems are coming up from the gulf (instead of mid west and cut) with an active stj and air is still cold enough so storms have a good chance of staying underneath us. also have to watch sun, mon for a wave riding along cold front that passes south of us. cold hp to our north and pretty strong atl ridge so front can't sweep through as they usually do. fun times ahead.


that a pretty strong gradient setting up over our area. any wave that develops should track from lower miss. river valley to off the Delmarva.

[sroc4]

Its a crazy soln but 12z GFS, in fantasy range, wants to phase a tropical derived piece of energy with a northern piece of energy and move a closed, negatively tilted 500mb trough; fully phased Godzilla beast up the coast around the 29th-ish.  Fun to look at.  If only in the 2-3day range.  

[Frank_Wx]

Our first fantasy Godzilla of the season. Please be true.

[jmanley32]

Our first fantasy Godzilla of the season. Please be true.

At 360 hrs I know its fantasy but does this time frame look possible for something like this, When I saw that I was like holy smokes! I saw it looks like a tropical system develops in the tropics, yes please be true, but how hard a setup is that to have happen?

[sroc4]

Our first fantasy Godzilla of the season. Please be true.

At 360 hrs I know its fantasy but does this time frame look possible for something like this, When I saw that I was like holy smokes!  I saw it looks like a tropical system develops in the tropics, yes please be true, but how hard a setup is that to have happen?  

To see this exact set up Jman:

[jmanley32]

Our first fantasy Godzilla of the season. Please be true.

At 360 hrs I know its fantasy but does this time frame look possible for something like this, When I saw that I was like holy smokes!  I saw it looks like a tropical system develops in the tropics, yes please be true, but how hard a setup is that to have happen?  

To see this exact set up Jman:

Love you all, LOL great flick great part. I didn't need to watch it I remember that.

[sroc4]

Our first fantasy Godzilla of the season. Please be true.

At 360 hrs I know its fantasy but does this time frame look possible for something like this, When I saw that I was like holy smokes!  I saw it looks like a tropical system develops in the tropics, yes please be true, but how hard a setup is that to have happen?  

To see this exact set up Jman:

Love you all, LOL great flick great part.  I didn't need to watch it I remember that.

LOL I know it and have seen it too more times than I can count, but I still had to watch it before I posted in here just because. Cracks me up every time.

[amugs]

The Parallel GFS showing snow for those N&W of NYC on Xmas Day.......

Wasn't going to say anything, but I have actually developed an interest in this time frame over the last few days

yes rb next week looks like systems are coming up from the gulf  (instead of mid west and cut) with an active stj and air is still cold enough so storms have a good chance of staying underneath us. also have to watch sun, mon for a wave riding along cold front that passes south of us. cold hp to our north and pretty strong atl ridge so front can't sweep through as they usually do. fun times ahead.


that a pretty strong gradient setting up over our area. any wave that develops should track from lower miss. river valley to off the Delmarva.

IF it goes coastal then there is plenty of cold air to tap if it wants by digging.

[amugs]

How cold is it in the Northern Plains well loom at this ship that went rim Duluth into the great lakes this morning

[2004blackwrx]

that is a awesome image

How cold is it in the Northern Plains well loom at this ship that went rim Duluth into the great lakes this morning

[Math23x7]

LOL hr 192 of the 12/15/16 12Z ECMWF OP has a 999 mb low just off our coastline and 850 mb temps in NYC at around -5C. This would be the morning of 12/23. Of course, it then shows warmth flooding on in but hey, you have to start somewhere.

[jmanley32]

My sister just informed me that thin lake effect band buried syracuse in over a foot IN LESS THAN 12 hrs. with blizzard conditions. That brings her total so far to about 4 to 5 feet. At this rate they could easily b looking at hundreds of inches of show this yr. Lucky!

[HectorO]

I could care less about the storm on Saturday, because by Saturday night early Sunday, it will all be gone and the Christmas torch will begin late next week.

[Guest]

THIS WINTER SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  And don't go comparing this December to last year's ALL TIME RECORD WARMTH. From way back in the fall when people were all optimistic about no more El Nino', a great Pacific blob or whatever, active polar jet and on and on and on, to constant postings of OMG look at how great the Euro Weeklies are to multiple snow threats, to the PV setting up some kind of cross-polar flow nonsense.  All bullshit.  As we get closer and closer to the forecast time periods, all storms cut, snow chances dwindle and forecast amounts bust way low. 

.......................BUT YOU WATCH, THE BLOWTOURCH FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS, AND THE ABOVE AVERAGE JANUARY, THOSE WILL VERIFY 100% because its the winter of 2016/2017 which is shaping up to be the all-time biggest disappointment at least for me. 

As I type this my snow forecast for tonight and tomorrow which started at 3-5" a few days ago and then went to 2-4 and eventually 1-3" is now officially...................1-2"  EF THAT!!

rant over.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

THIS WINTER SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  And don't go comparing this December to last year's ALL TIME RECORD WARMTH. From way back in the fall when people were all optimistic about no more El Nino', a great Pacific blob or whatever, active polar jet and on and on and on, to constant postings of OMG look at how great the Euro Weeklies are to multiple snow threats, to the PV setting up some kind of cross-polar flow nonsense.  All bullshit.  As we get closer and closer to the forecast time periods, all storms cut, snow chances dwindle and forecast amounts bust way low. 

.......................BUT YOU WATCH, THE BLOWTOURCH FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS, AND THE ABOVE AVERAGE JANUARY, THOSE WILL VERIFY 100% because its the winter of 2016/2017 which is shaping up to be the all-time biggest disappointment at least for me. 

As I type this my snow forecast for tonight and tomorrow which started at 3-5" a few days ago and then went to 2-4 and eventually 1-3" is now officially...................1-2"  EF THAT!!

rant over.

That was a good rant Jimmy boy, one of your better ones and you make some good points.

I've stated many times how I will take this December over last December but of course I could compare most Novembers to last December and say they had more snow and cold so it is a bad comparison when last December set the bar so low.

Still temperatures so far this month are right about average, although I'm still thinking we end up above average for the month once the last 10 days are factored in all which seem to be forecast above normal. I mean the last 17 months have been above normal for Gods sake, an unprecedented streak.

My other beef is December is my favorite time for snow and cold for several reasons, Christmas season first and foremost but also because the sun angle is so low this time of year you need a day in the 40's before the snow even starts to melt. I'm not talking compacting I'm talking real melting which many people have a difficult time differentiate. So when people say about December winter hasn't officially started, to me it's BS. Just because Decembers have been so ridiculously mild the last several years, it aint the way it's suppose to be. By Christmas the average temperature in NYC is 34.5 and where I live in Orange County it's 27 and that's using the 1981-2010 average which is the warmest on record.

My final point, when if ever do we stop this trend of mild and milder and go back to the Decembers of old? I remember sledding and ice skating for a couple of weeks leading into Christmas, in the last 10 years we've actually had whole winter seasons with very little ice, last year the prime example. Climate change whatever you believe causes it is real I've seen it with my own eyes. Maybe it's natural, maybe we help it along, I'm not smart enough to know, I'm just a man in his mid 50's that wants a normal December again. So far this one will suffice, let's see how the last 15 days go before the final grade.

[docstox12]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKcHMJlE7OM

A metaphor for Jimmy's rant,LOL

Anyway, agree with you CP, there has definitely been a change concerning Decembers.I'm older than you and can remember Decembers consistently colder than recently and white Christmases were more of a certainty.We have to be thankful here in the HV ,since that 4 1/2 inch storm in November, we have had a nice run.

[RJB8525]

i hope the roads aren't bad by Saturday afternoon with the warming up

too much to do so little time this weekend before Christmas lol

[HectorO]

THIS WINTER SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  And don't go comparing this December to last year's ALL TIME RECORD WARMTH. From way back in the fall when people were all optimistic about no more El Nino', a great Pacific blob or whatever, active polar jet and on and on and on, to constant postings of OMG look at how great the Euro Weeklies are to multiple snow threats, to the PV setting up some kind of cross-polar flow nonsense.  All bullshit.  As we get closer and closer to the forecast time periods, all storms cut, snow chances dwindle and forecast amounts bust way low. 

.......................BUT YOU WATCH, THE BLOWTOURCH FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS, AND THE ABOVE AVERAGE JANUARY, THOSE WILL VERIFY 100% because its the winter of 2016/2017 which is shaping up to be the all-time biggest disappointment at least for me. 

As I type this my snow forecast for tonight and tomorrow which started at 3-5" a few days ago and then went to 2-4 and eventually 1-3" is now officially...................1-2"  EF THAT!!

rant over.

Haha,, wow. However, we do sometimes like to compare it to last year because last year felt noting like this and usually the year after el Nino the winters aren't so great. Not as bad as the Nino year but not that great either. I'm just waiting for next year. That gut feeling that we'll get hammered.

[jmanley32]

Wow I'll post it later but wind chills in vt got as low as -66 degrees!

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