HURRICANE MATTHEW

Euro still insistent on a southern and weaker track relative to GFS

Those ensembles show quite a few recurves west now than before. Main black line shows late OTS, but who knows.

amugs wrote:Very intriguing solutions and the points I made will be at playas we get closer- this is going to be a fun one. I bet all tv mets side with climo and say OTS - they did the same with Sandy even though we had a frickin mega block over Greenland - they were riding the GFS until about 36 hours before.

All I can say is this is very exciting if you're a weenie.

TV Mets will wait until at least Sunday to say anything other than the storm has developed. They are very conservative and don't want to talk about it for over 10 days until it gets here, if at all. They have enough with this rain we're getting this week. There will be a lot of talk at the conference Saturday for sure!

I recall tracking winter storms and usually 8 days out the clustering of ensembles is all over the place. The GEFS is pretty darn tight. Interesting. For some reason my computer is not letting me upload the image but clustered all around NYC NJ area and off shore, almost a circle of ensembles.

amugs wrote:

If theres one person I trust its Levi, been following him longer than I have been here.

GFS ensembles control makes a sandy esque recurve into the nearly identical area at 978mb. The heads along coast.

A little faster and a tick east from 00z

Following Euro on wxbell its a smidge north at hr 36.

jmanley32 wrote:Following Euro on wxbell its a smidge north at hr 36.

Out to 120 on Trop tidbits

I don't know if this will affect the coast, but it will definitely threaten the coast because I'm scheduled to make a rare Fall trip to the shore that weekend. So it would be ironic (and typical) after my Labor Day weekend Hermine debacle if I was dealing with this type of threat again.

Euro might be headed back OTS with this run if that trough to the N doesnt lift out

Yeah sroc euro Def east lol these models are too much. And ya wxbell is dirt slow.

Euro also way stronger than 00z.

Bernie's latest thoughts; he is NOT buying anything with an eastern track and by the sounds of it, he still thinks Matthew may end up in the Gulf.

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/experts/video/2430839568001/matthew-enters-the-caribbean-and-strengthens?autoStart=true

Matthew may get here by Christmas per Euro.lol

If Bernie is right God bless him because no models show like him

The whole pattern has a chance to evolve. We are nearly 10 days out. Verification is very low.

Bernie at the very end still says it could go either way. At the beginning sounded like he preferred gulf. I think it's just that we do not know and he said that too.

So the Euro has a tropical cyclone that will be hanging in the Caribbean for like 7 days and then move it on out as it crawls like a baby - the issue being here its BIAS which is holding back the energy in which it is doing with the trough in the SW. Nowit has come about 500 miles east of its last run at 0Z.

So after 4 days we have a crapshoot - if you look at past history of storms during this time of year Hazel being one, he trajectory of the projected tracks are eerily similar.
This time next week we will either be sitting at the edges of our seats ready to sound teh general quarters alarms and battin down dem hatches or we breath a sigh of relief.

Always remember that the models are for the guidance - look at the players on the field and we go from there.

Models keep delaying the storm. Always 240+ hours out. Not sure what that means yet, it could miss the capture with the trough or have more time to find the weakness in the ridge and escape OTS. Need to see another 2 days of model runs, long way to go.

By Monday of NEXT week it's still only south of Cuba. Geez, slow mover.

We are going to get answers no time soon. I'm taking a break.

18z it's up near us at 186 hrs much faster. Similar intensity.

People writing it off on another weather board it's crazy this thing will change 100 times ugh!

skinsfan1177 wrote:People writing it off on another weather board it's crazy this thing will change 100 times ugh!

Remember Hermine? Couldn't get that ***** right within 48 hours let alone 10 days out