HURRICANE MATTHEW

People writing it off on another weather board it's crazy this thing will change 100 times ugh!

skinsfan1177 wrote:People writing it off on another weather board it's crazy this thing will change 100 times ugh!

Remember Hermine? Couldn't get that ***** right within 48 hours let alone 10 days out

skinsfan1177 wrote:People writing it off on another weather board it's crazy this thing will change 100 times ugh!

Your right skins can't write this off. Some land mass somewhere is going to be affected by Matthew it's happened already. The more likely ones are the Western Caribbean islands Florida into North Carolina that's where hurricanes often hit. To have an extreme Sandy like run for our area is extremely rare and the odds that Matthew takes a track like that are Slim No matter which model shows a solution like that this far out

Skins I know they are nuts and Frank showing emotion with the swear love it!!
The friggin storm is about 120 miles off the coast - jeez that is a sneeze this far out even within 12 hours for god's sake.
Time for some dinner.

recon out again winds increased?

algae888 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:People writing it off on another weather board it's crazy this thing will change 100 times ugh!

Your right skins can't write this off. Some land mass somewhere is going to be affected by Matthew it's happened already. The more likely ones are the Western Caribbean islands Florida into North Carolina that's where hurricanes often hit. To have an extreme Sandy like run for our area is extremely rare and the odds that Matthew takes a track like that are Slim No matter which model shows a solution like that this far out

we don't need a sandy type landfall to have a bad hurricane.

any solution still possible. check out this video...

https://pbs.twimg.com/tweet_video_thumb/CteSFhgXYAESbfG.jpg
video not coming up oh well it is pretty cool to see.

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:People writing it off on another weather board it's crazy this thing will change 100 times ugh!

Your right skins can't write this off. Some land mass somewhere is going to be affected by Matthew it's happened already. The more likely ones are the Western Caribbean islands Florida into North Carolina that's where hurricanes often hit. To have an extreme Sandy like run for our area is extremely rare and the odds that Matthew takes a track like that are Slim No matter which model shows a solution like that this far out

we don't need a sandy type landfall to have a bad hurricane.

I know jman. just stating it's unlikely to have major hurricanes up this way. they happen but not very often.

8:00 PM AST Wed Sep 28
Location: 13.9°N 62.4°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

10mph away from being a hurricane. Not having much trouble strengthening so far and NHC calling for continued increase in intensity.

algae888 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

algae888 wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:People writing it off on another weather board it's crazy this thing will change 100 times ugh!

Your right skins can't write this off. Some land mass somewhere is going to be affected by Matthew it's happened already. The more likely ones are the Western Caribbean islands Florida into North Carolina that's where hurricanes often hit. To have an extreme Sandy like run for our area is extremely rare and the odds that Matthew takes a track like that are Slim No matter which model shows a solution like that this far out

we don't need a sandy type landfall to have a bad hurricane.

I know jman. just stating it's unlikely to have major hurricanes up this way. they happen but not very often.

Even a TS or Cat 1 would be bad enough, I understood what you were saying, to add a sandy like track would make it even less likely, i see a regular track most likely if we do get anything.

Matthew is looking better organized this evening. Great outflow in all quadrants. I feel it won't be much longer before we see Hurricane Matthew.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-rb-short.html

looks good

If we do see a hurricane by tomorrow that would be the start of him being ahead of schedule and I would expect big changes possible in track. If it does slow down as much as cone shows the time frame of 6th-9th may be too early, but we may not see that much of a slowdown. Wait and see is all we can do. sroc is smart to take a break but my interest in the tropics will keep me checking in daily, but maybe not as much as I have been until the weekend, if we do get a big threat want the energy for late nights.

jmanley32 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-rb-short.html

looks good

The official forecast is for Matthew to attain hurricane status early Friday morning. From the looks of satellite imagery, it may very well be tomorrow morning.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-rb-short.html

looks good

The official forecast is for Matthew to attain hurricane status early Friday morning. From the looks of satellite imagery, it may very well be tomorrow morning.

Levis latest update.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com

sroc4 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-rb-short.html

looks good

The official forecast is for Matthew to attain hurricane status early Friday morning. From the looks of satellite imagery, it may very well be tomorrow morning.

Levis latest update.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com

Thanks for posting that. Very Informative.

Recon is finding a larger area of high TS force winds. I will post if its done before I go to bed.

Does that line from the two equal pressures mean thats where they are sure the center is? This may be a 70mph TS at 11pm, if not then 5am possibly. 11pm is full update new cone etc.

I keep reading people bring up sandy's set-up with this storm. I really wish people would stop doing that. This storm and Sandy have as much in common as Italian food and sushi. Sandy was born in the Caribbean and this was born from Africa. The route they take will be different too based on Blocking. Compare this storm to something else. Not Sandy.

Noticed the cone from NHC 11pm update is a bit faster 8pm monday is reaching cuba. dev I agree, I think people said that because there were some runs showing a recurve, but yeah if we get impacted it will likely be a more normal track.

Trough too slow on this run . Onto the ensembles.

Snow88 wrote:Trough too slow on this run . Onto the ensembles.

Its damn close though, then GFS is steadfast on a very close pass if not landfall on the area, though it has been east at the last minute past few runs.

Big storm on the GGEM

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/00z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_na_f162.png?1364096147

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/00z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_na_f165.png?1364096147

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/00z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_na_f168.png?1364096147

http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/cmc/current/00z/CMC_MSLPThickQPF_na_f171.png?1364096147

Ummmm wow the euro has actually started to cave to the gfs but wow alot stronger 914mb much further north at 240 hrs due north. Im.very durprised the euro has a cat 5 ehile the others dont thats concerning. Not as far west but I was not expecting to see that as everyone was so strong that the due north was not really right. I believed it was
Also cone shifted east a bit and faster Haiti is really go b u dr the gun. Edit...if the euro went out further in hearing it might b ots? I see no sign of that shift at 240. My bad ot does appear to.jog ne at 240 hrs. Would that continue?

Latest NHC discussion. Pretty much sums up my thoughts. I'm going to lay low until we start to get a turn north.

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016

Matthew is currently experiencing 15-20 kt of southwesterly
vertical wind shear, with the low-level center located near the
western edge of the main convective mass. An earlier Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission reported 850 mb flight-level winds
of 65-70 kt and estimated surface winds of 50-55 kt from the SFMR
instrument. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 55
kt. The aircraft reported a central pressure of 1002 mb on its
last pass through the center.

The initial motion is 275/14. Matthew is currently on the south
side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. This feature should
steer the storm westward or even south of west during the next 48
hours. After that time, Matthew is expected to approach the
western end of the ridge as a mid- to upper-level trough develops
over the Gulf of Mexico. While this combination is expected to
cause the cyclone to turn generally northward, there is significant
disagreement between the dynamical models on where the turn will
occur and how fast Matthew will move northward. The forecast track
is in best agreement with the GFS and GFS ensemble mean in bringing
the center to eastern Cuba by 120 hours, although it is slower than
those models. The Canadian model is a little west of the forecast
track. The ECMWF and UKMET are to the east of the forecast track and
much slower, bringing the center to the island of Hispaniola.
Overall, the new forecast track is nudged a little south of the
previous track for the first 72 hours, then is similar to the
previous track. Users are reminded that the average NHC track
errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180 and 240 miles,
respectively.

The current shear is likely to gradually diminish during the next
72 hours, and this should allow continued gradual development.
After that time, there is also disagreement in the models regarding
the forecast shear, with the GFS showing a more favorable pattern
than the ECMWF. If the GFS upper-level winds are correct, Matthew
could strengthen more than currently forecast as show by the HWRF.
However, given the uncertainty, the new intensity forecast is the
same as the previous forecast and is in best agreement with the
intensity consensus.

06z gfs is well west again gets close enough to give us outer areas of the storm. Ts conditions. To me this is looking like more and more of a threat but I'm still cautious that it's far out.

jmanley32 wrote:06z gfs is well west again gets close enough to give us outer areas of the storm. Ts conditions. To me this is looking like more and more of a threat but I'm still cautious that it's far out.

In recent runs the GFS has been trending stronger with the western Atlantic ridge (war), thus the shift west. If you loop out the GFS 0z and 6z runs you can see once Matthew reaches the latitude of North Carolina it slows down and meanders for a while before it moves out NE. With the slightly slower movement of Matthew, 6z run came pretty close to a capture with the trough on its heels. If this trend continues with the slower movement / stronger ridge, we could very well see a capture in future runs.