HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:50 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:

Who's the lil baby flanking his NE?!
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:52 pm

The Euro is going to slowly but steadily come into the gfs camp here - cant expect a boomerang in one OP run here but the trend is coming - EURO/UKIE/NAVGEM/GFS are all west now.

IF the GFS wins this one DOBA (Dead on Balls Accurate) I will never call it the GooFuS ever again.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:52 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

Who's the lil baby flanking his NE?!

The cut off low that i sover us now.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:57 pm

amugs wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

Who's the lil baby flanking his NE?!

The cut off low that i sover us now.
thst is one balls out powerful hurricane cat 3 plus? Go b a long week as this is now a real threat imo. I know frank go wait till tuesday which is a good idea. I'm not saying anything to anyone except my wife who keeps ask what's frank been saying?
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:00 pm


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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:01 pm

12z eur yesterday is about 1000miles south of todays 12z on monday. Huge uptick in speed. Def getting into line here
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:02 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
looking bit more ragged today. Still a powerful storm.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:04 pm

To me it looks like is stalled and is about to make the turn north. He never made it to 75L...

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by track17 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:06 pm

Would that be good for us Frank if he turned now because we don't need this thing even close to us

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:08 pm

How can we know that that earlier turn not by a lot will effect the lr though?
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:16 pm

18z hurricane models:


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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:17 pm

Levi just posted the euro initialized very wrong....
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:18 pm

track17 wrote:Would that be good for us Frank if he turned now because we don't need this thing even close to us

The further west he is, the higher the odds are he gets captured by the trough and comes up the coast. If he manages to reach 75L or anywhere west of there, I think that could spell trouble for the east coast. If he stays east of 75L, odds are he remains out to sea.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:19 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:18z hurricane models:


One thing (the only thing atm) is certain: Jamaica is dodging one HELLUVA direct bullet.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:20 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:18z hurricane models:


Compared to 12Z


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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:20 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Levi just posted the euro initialized very wrong....

what happens if it initialized wrong...do they run the model again or do you have to wait for the next run?
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by track17 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:20 pm

So according to what you are seeing we are ok then now because you said he is turning north

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:21 pm

More towards the coast

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:23 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Levi just posted the euro initialized very wrong....

what happens if it initialized wrong...do they run the model again or do you have to wait for the next run?

Nope, they wait until the next one.

track17 wrote:So according to what you are seeing we are ok then now because you said he is turning north

Well he is definitely turning north, but does he track due north or northwest? If the latter, then he has a chance to make it to 75L. If he just goes due North and landfalls in Haiti, then I don't think he will impact the EC.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:24 pm

Bernie Rayno just now:

"...concern that I brought up video discussed that even with Euro there were paths toward US.further W location is concerning"
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:25 pm

track17 wrote:So according to what you are seeing we are ok then now because you said he is turning north

Track - I have a distinct feeling you do not want this hcane as most people in our area - BUT we are not okay - no one really is on the EC - we have to watch and we don't know what he will do - he could turn NW or NNW or due N - fact being we have A LOT of time before we know any details, mere model interpretation happening and recon data.
So it is a lot of time before we have an indication of his track and even then we could get thrown a curve ball.
Sit tight and what will happen will happen my man. It weather.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:35 pm

12z HWRF


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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:37 pm

Watch sattelite loo, in last few frames it almost looks NE, someone I read on another board said the eye would rotate around and then make the turn, I never heard of that but that could be what its doing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-rb-short.html
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:39 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Watch sattelite loo, in last few frames it almost looks NE, someone I read on another board said the eye would rotate around and then make the turn, I never heard of that but that could be what its doing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-rb-short.html

Tropical cyclones do not make "right" turns. He went south about an hour ago, then east, now northeast, then he will turn north and maybe northwest. Once he turns north, he should continue forward motion through next week. They flow counter clockwise.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:40 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:12z HWRF

almost 76 there.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

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