HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

GFS just missed the trough. This is a clear nod towards the Euro. Right now, everything points to a miss but we are still 6 days away. Lets see what tomorrow brings. Night.

UKIE, the model that has also shown EC landfall, is also OTS.

Frank_Wx wrote:UKIE, the model that has also shown EC landfall, is also OTS.

As much as I hate to be in JBs camp, I sort of agree with him at this time. Although hes coming off too confident at this juncture, a lot can still change.

GEFS mean on stormvista looks better than the 18z mean

Navgem slams the storm into New England

quote="Frank_Wx"]UKIE, the model that has also shown EC landfall, is also OTS.[/quote]

Looks similiar to the GFS. Now the question is does the trough pull it back?

Snow88 wrote:GEFS mean on stormvista looks better than the 18z mean

Navgem slams the storm into New England

quote="Frank_Wx"]UKIE, the model that has also shown EC landfall, is also OTS.

Looks similiar to the GFS. Now the question is does the trough pull it back?[/quote]

Ehhh went from no hits to about 2-3 hits and a couple scrapes (18z had scrapes too), not a big change, mean is still far enough south and east to be a no-storm for basically everyone in this area...

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Hurricane-Matthew?map=ensmodel

NAVGEM has caved as well, looks similar to the CMC but doesnt go quite as far out to sea before hooking back into far NNE.

Figures, last nights EURO comes very close to the southeast coast, does a weird stall, and zips to the NE, still a miss, but probably the closest EURO run to the area in a while which tells me the models are still struggling. Doesnt change my thinking that well offshore is the best bet ATM, but we obv. need to watch for trends.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Figures, last nights EURO comes very close to the southeast coast, does a weird stall, and zips to the NE, still a miss, but probably the closest EURO run to the area in a while which tells me the models are still struggling. Doesnt change my thinking that well offshore is the best bet ATM, but we obv. need to watch for trends.

Yeah so that to close to capture but just missed with so much time I think things will keep changing one thing is that run was closer than the Euro previous ones.

Yes just saw euro it was closest pass and quite a bit slower if euro is right we still have 10 freaking days before it even starts to get near the area oy.

If the Oz EURO went out beyond 240hrs, it might of very well have shown a capture.

So gar 06z gfs slightly west of 00z.

nutleyblizzard wrote:
If the Oz EURO went out beyond 240hrs, it might of very well have shown a capture.

god 10 days! Or more why lol at this rate this storm where ever it goes won't b gone till mid late october! One thing for sure atlantic ace will b mostly from matthew.

Trough is coming in sharper and more negative in the central US let's see if they meet.

Wow the gfs reverted west back all 4 trends to the east now on coast of Carolinas instead well offshore.

Landfall at obx a bit further inland than aboUT 5 runs ago. I think this,may just come right up coast.

GFS is coming ashore in NC but doesnt necessairly mean its continuing north because the latest frame shows more north-easterly movement but we'll see... these models.

Well this run looks like an Irene redux... the waffling continues!

Boom 1938 redux, or similar to irene but stronger. we all screwed on that run. NJ this is far from over now we have GFS well west Euro forther west almost into the area.

Wow...And much faster the difference in speed of GFS and Euro is 5 days! This makes landfall Sat morning, I think the Euro is off with speed. Saw 850 winds, theres almost none on the western side boston gets hammered with 125kt 850s, so maybe 100mph.

Rockets out so fast only see 1-3 inches of rain.

jmanley32 wrote:Wow...And much faster the difference in speed of GFS and Euro is 5 days! This makes landfall Sat morning, I think the Euro is off with speed.

Was just going to post it myself JMan. Unbelievable!!! Just when you think it was over with last nights east trends this happens. Models don't have a clue right now. Love to hear everyone's reaction when they wake up and sees this.

The hi-res gives you a better idea of intensity, so im guessing winds may be higher. 956mb!

Will post 925mb wind shortly, tend to be more accurate. LOL NJ people are go be kicking dirt lol

nutleyblizzard wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Wow...And much faster the difference in speed of GFS and Euro is 5 days! This makes landfall Sat morning, I think the Euro is off with speed.

Was just going to post it myself JMan. Unbelievable!!! Just when you think it was over with last nights east trends this happens. Models don't have a clue right now. Love to hear everyone's reaction when they wake up and sees this.

As fank has been saying if Matthew gets to 75W he has a much better chance, he is already nearing 75W, and I wouldnt be surprised to see him at least make it there, if not past.

WOW! This looks like it would actually be worse than GFS coming in as a retrograde this is far from not being a hit its going due west.

jmanley32 wrote:

nutleyblizzard wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Wow...And much faster the difference in speed of GFS and Euro is 5 days! This makes landfall Sat morning, I think the Euro is off with speed.

Was just going to post it myself JMan. Unbelievable!!! Just when you think it was over with last nights east trends this happens. Models don't have a clue right now. Love to hear everyone's reaction when they wake up and sees this.

As fank has been saying if Matthew gets to 75W he has a much better chance, he is already nearing 75W, and I wouldnt be surprised to see him at least make it there, if not past.

Yep. Currently moving NW at 5mph compared to NNW last night. I would not rule out a landfall on Jamacia.

Gee where have I seen something like this before?!!