HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:20 pm

Trough not steep enough. H5 resembled EURO. If EURO stays south, that's solid agreement Matthew will not directly impact us. Even so I would give it another day but the H5 pattern may not support him reaching our latitude.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by rb924119 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:26 pm

Through 24, GEM is slower with Matthew.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:30 pm

I think it's going to stay off our coast unless some big changes happen with the H5
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by nutleyblizzard on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:47 pm

CMC goes to OBX then OTS just like the GFS just showed.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:50 pm

Ugg, al lthis tracking and now today its all reverting to the Euro wow....Watch the Euro show a hit LOL
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 12:51 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:I think it's going to stay off our coast unless some big changes happen with the H5
and what are the chances of that, I mean we are 5-6 days out still, when tracking winter storms we often have issues well up to even 2-3 days in.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:07 pm

Are we still far from a solution or are you less confident than you were this morning saying you might be issuing a forecast frank? SO we are going to hold until tomorrow nights 00z runs?
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:08 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I think it's going to stay off our coast unless some big changes happen with the H5
and what are the chances of that, I mean we are 5-6 days out still, when tracking winter storms we often have issues well up to even 2-3 days in.

I'll say a good 60% chance he stays OTS. In my Mo Mo I mentioned EURO had a good idea of the pattern and it looks like he's leading the way. Some ensembles and hurricane models still keep it interesting for the area, so rather give it another day.

One reason why I have reservations is because of the recurvingTyphoon in the PAC. Normally our H5 amplifies with a trough over the central U.S. when there's a recurving Typhoon. So, we have to wait and see.

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:18 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I think it's going to stay off our coast unless some big changes happen with the H5
and what are the chances of that, I mean we are 5-6 days out still, when tracking winter storms we often have issues well up to even 2-3 days in.

I'll say a good 60% chance he stays OTS. In my Mo Mo I mentioned EURO had a good idea of the pattern and it looks like he's leading the way. Some ensembles and hurricane models still keep it interesting for the area, so rather give it another day.

One reason why I have reservations is because of the recurvingTyphoon in the PAC. Normally our H5 amplifies with a trough over the central U.S. when there's a recurving Typhoon. So, we have to wait and see.
I think this is the most waffling of models I can remember, one day we are like oh we are locking in next day we are back to square one. Sigh, I will wait just like everyone else, nothing else we can do. Interesting what you said about the recurving typhoon though, maybe that's not being handled right, oh who knows, well maybe you do. I do not know about all that pacific stuff.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by algae888 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:36 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I think it's going to stay off our coast unless some big changes happen with the H5
and what are the chances of that, I mean we are 5-6 days out still, when tracking winter storms we often have issues well up to even 2-3 days in.

I'll say a good 60% chance he stays OTS. In my Mo Mo I mentioned EURO had a good idea of the pattern and it looks like he's leading the way. Some ensembles and hurricane models still keep it interesting for the area, so rather give it another day.

One reason why I have reservations is because of the recurvingTyphoon in the PAC. Normally our H5 amplifies with a trough over the central U.S. when there's a recurving Typhoon. So, we have to wait and see.
I think this is the most waffling of models I can remember, one day we are like oh we are locking in next day we are back to square one.  Sigh, I will wait just like everyone else, nothing else we can do.  Interesting what you said about the recurving typhoon though, maybe that's not being handled right, oh who knows, well maybe you do.  I do not know about all that pacific stuff.
Jman what did you expect the models to do with a System 10 days out and still 5 days out. Did you think the models would show the same solution since last Tuesday. you know better than this. Other boards have just started talking about impact to our area today since it's about 5 days away.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:41 pm

algae888 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:I think it's going to stay off our coast unless some big changes happen with the H5
and what are the chances of that, I mean we are 5-6 days out still, when tracking winter storms we often have issues well up to even 2-3 days in.

I'll say a good 60% chance he stays OTS. In my Mo Mo I mentioned EURO had a good idea of the pattern and it looks like he's leading the way. Some ensembles and hurricane models still keep it interesting for the area, so rather give it another day.

One reason why I have reservations is because of the recurvingTyphoon in the PAC. Normally our H5 amplifies with a trough over the central U.S. when there's a recurving Typhoon. So, we have to wait and see.
I think this is the most waffling of models I can remember, one day we are like oh we are locking in next day we are back to square one.  Sigh, I will wait just like everyone else, nothing else we can do.  Interesting what you said about the recurving typhoon though, maybe that's not being handled right, oh who knows, well maybe you do.  I do not know about all that pacific stuff.
Jman what did you expect the models to do with a System 10 days out and still 5 days out. Did you think the models would show the same solution since last Tuesday. you know better than this. Other boards have just started talking about impact to our area today since it's about 5 days away.
Okay calm down Al LOL, I did say a page back that I was not settled on any one solution.  But its frustrating, it just seems like models have gotten progressively worse over the years, maybe its just patterns though that have gotten more complex.  We will see what happens.  Yes I do know and that's why I said 5 days out we got so much time for change still.  Even in winter up to 2-3 days sometimes 1 day we still do not know for sure. How ya been anyways. Curious what other boards do you get insight from? I look at storm2k but there is a lot of bickering there.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:46 pm

GEFS agree with operational.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by algae888 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:54 pm

Jman I feel a little under the weather today thanks for asking but my favorite day of the year is coming up soon November 1st. It starts my busy season at work I would have just read Frank Winter forecast probably have the first GFS fantasy snow storm and above all the end of the tropical season.lol Smile Very Happy
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:58 pm

algae888 wrote:Jman I feel a little under the weather today thanks for asking but my favorite day of the year is coming up soon November 1st. It starts my busy season at work I would have just read Frank Winter forecast probably have the first GFS fantasy snow storm and above all the end of the tropical season.lol Smile Very Happy

Nov. 30th is end of tropical season my friend. Sorry your not feeling well. I have been sick past week, just getting over it. You have to admit though Matthews model runs have flip flopped like crazy. and its frustrating just like snow storms.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:00 pm

2pm update, cone & wind chances updates at 5pm

2:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 4
Location: 19.4°N 74.3°W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 949 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

He has increased in speed since yesterday, a bit more could mean all the difference in the track up the coast.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by algae888 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:03 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
algae888 wrote:Jman I feel a little under the weather today thanks for asking but my favorite day of the year is coming up soon November 1st. It starts my busy season at work I would have just read Frank Winter forecast probably have the first GFS fantasy snow storm and above all the end of the tropical season.lol Smile Very Happy

Nov. 30th is end of tropical season my friend.  Sorry your not feeling well.  I have been sick past week, just getting over it.  You have to admit though Matthews model runs have flip flopped like crazy. and its frustrating just like snow storms.
Yeah I know but they're mostly over by November 1st. The Euro has been very consistent with not showing any impacts from Matthew for our area. part of the reason it only goes out 10 days unlike the 16-day GFS


Last edited by algae888 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:05 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by rb924119 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:04 pm

For anybody expecting the EURO:

"Note: 2:00 PM EDT: ECMWF 12z products delayed at least 60-minutes as per @ECMWF" from WeatherBell

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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:06 pm

I didn't even notice 06z HWRF holy crap. But 12z is well east of the 06z. Heard GFDL is a landfall in FL? Crazy models
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by Sferra01 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:12 pm

I follow this page all the time....especially when there is the potential for a major storm to hit.  Can i ask your opinion?  I'm supposed to be flying into Ft Meyers Thursday.....my brother is baptizing my niece and I am the God mother.  My concern is getting back into NY.....I am scheduled to fly back in Sunday night.  I have 4 young children and I dont want to be away from them if a storm is coming or risk not getting back.  Any thoughts or opinions would be greatly appreciated.


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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:14 pm

Sferra01 wrote:I follow this page all the time....especially when there is the potential for a major storm to hit.  Can i ask your opinion?  I'm supposed to be flying into Ft Meyes Thursday.....my brother is baptizing my niece and I am the God mother.  My concern is getting back into NY.....I am scheduled to fly back in Sunday night.  I have 4 young children and I dont want to be away from them if a storm is coming or risk not getting back.  Any thoughts or opinions would be greatly appreciated.  

I think your problem will be going to florida on Thursday (going to be making landfall or close to on most of FL) and your return possibly.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:42 pm

Looks like he is going through eyewall replacement, and one is beginning to peak again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/html5-rb-short.html
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:07 pm

Euro started.out to hr 48 it is way slower. the likely outcome of that we know.
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by moleson on Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:10 pm


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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:11 pm

moleson wrote:
yet again east, wouldn't expect anything less, what in the world is that loop?
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Re: HURRICANE MATTHEW: Phase 2--"The Turn"

Post by amugs on Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:13 pm

And Euro absolutely crushes FLA coast with a CAT 5 922MB WPB North as so it seems

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