Re: Long Range Thread 12.0

[amugs]

EPO region still looking good.



IO dipole looks to go Neutral by Dec which would be good



from a decent Negative state now

[Snow88]

12z Euro at 240

Upstate and New England Weenies
http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/ecmwf/current/12z/ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_na_f240.png

Nice block with a lot of cold air pouring in. Possible transfer incoming to the coast after 240

[algae888]

12z Euro at 240

Upstate and New England Weenies
http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/img/ecmwf/current/12z/ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_na_f240.png

Nice block with a lot of cold air pouring in. Possible transfer incoming to the coast after 240

Yes snow euro is mighty cold next week. Would love to see that pattern a few times during this winter

[algae888]

So far what we have for this upcoming winter are (positves) the warm Waters in the north pac, a much weaker polar vortex both in the stratosphere and troposphere, strong blocking to end October and good snow growth across Asia. The negatives are a positive Qbo, neg iod, pesky war, and the weak modiki nina although the weak nina also favors colder weather. Mjo looks to be in The Circle of Death for the foreseeable future. The mjo is still a crapshoot. If I had to make an educated guess at this point the winter looks to be very transient with some snow and cold patterns (blocking sswe) that last a week or two followed by a warm up when the war rears its ugly head or the Gulf of Alaska one-eyed Pig. Do not feel stronly att of a locked in pattern warm/or cold for any extended period (3 weeks or more). Just my guess at this point.

[Frank_Wx]

The EURO has a setup at the end of October that would give parts of the Northeast a significant snowstorm.

Yes, snowstorm.

Long way to go. But pattern looks pretty good this far out.

[frank 638]

Nooooo way to early for snow with the leaves still on the trees that would be disastrous especially with the power lines and people homes

[jrollins628]

Isn't that bad because 2011 we had a snowstorm and nothing for the rest of winter I don't want any snow early nooo I think that is a curse lol

[Frank_Wx]

Nooooo way to early for snow with the leaves still on the trees that would be disastrous especially with the power lines and people homes

Keep in mind areas to the north are in much better shape of seeing snow - from a climatology standpoint the - than we are. And this is just one model run.

Isn't that bad because 2011 we had a snowstorm and nothing for the rest of winter I don't want any snow early nooo I think that is a curse lol

Welcome to the forum.

I don't believe in these types of superstitions. Weather patterns in recent years have behaved quite anomalous to years in the distant past. What we're seeing on the EURO is a wave 1 purturbation of the Stratospheric PV. Mean zonal winds are pointing to a reversal. The last time winds in the Strat reversed this early you have to go back to Fall 2009.

[jmanley32]

Wow, even it it is just in northern areas. However I recall in 2011 the system had a late bombing out and brought much more than expected snow to the coast. I remember not expecting any sleet or snow till late in the day, was supposed to start as rain. It started as sleet at 10am and heavy snow by noonish that kept up well into the evening. I have some crazy pictures of how much tree damage was done in my area, amazingly we did not lose power. Couldn't a similar bombing out bring in enough cold air to do the same as in 2011, total speculation if this even were to take shape. Wow, even the sheer possibility of 2011 repeating itself is crazy, and I agree, just because we see snow in October or anywhere in northeast does not mean we will have a sucky winter. Will be watching this more closely than the diminishing possibility for this weekend lol.

[jmanley32]

HAHA, Euro ensemble member e47 gives the majority of way upstate NY and VT 2 feet, yeah right...

[jrollins628]

That's good for a early ski season lol

[Snow88]

And it's gone on the 0z Euro lol

[jmanley32]

No its not. Not sure what u are looking at.

[Snow88]

No its not. Not sure what u are looking at.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

Warm

[jmanley32]

No its not. Not sure what u are looking at.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

Warm

ahh not the system, the snow. gotcha. im sure 10days out it will waffle.

[Snow88]

[Frank_Wx]

What kinda name is Quid

[jmanley32]

Most of those names are hilarious to name winter storms. Yeah Quid, wth is that. And yo Reggie whats up, you gonna snow?

[nutleyblizzard]

Most of those names are hilarious to name winter storms. Yeah Quid, wth is that.  And yo Reggie whats up, you gonna snow?

For the record, I'll say that Niko will be our Roidzilla storm this winter. That name just has so much potential.

[amugs]

Ventrice saying PV steps ahead of last year weaker

[amugs]

[amugs]

Rocky making a substantial growth since last week - check out Siberia - WOW!!

[NjWeatherGuy]

^
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=T2m&runtime=2016101812&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=0

[NjWeatherGuy]

Go to hour 216, not sure why it wont let me post the right link to the righr hours, sometimes it works but usually it doesnt...

[mwilli5783]

just mowed my lawn for the last time this year,then put down winterizer hoping that thursday's rain event will get the ground good and moist and if we get a good snow pack by march the grass would benefit well and less to do in the spring

[amugs]

This is nice - could have impacts down the road for cold air.

[amugs]

JMA is out - calls for Cold/Snowy hard "Flip" in Dec

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