January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

thats crazy how far south the gfs has heavy snowfall.

jmanley32 wrote:well gfs says no snow for u, wave 1 or 2

Wave 1 went west

No way this storm comes back north

Snow88 wrote:Wave 1 might be the real deal

Wave 2 is done

Well the south is in for a big storm, of course the hot area gets the snow, go figure.

CMC has a few inches for the area

Both the Ukie and CMC like wave 2

Snow88 wrote:CMC has a few inches for the area

Both the Ukie and CMC like wave 2

thats different cuz cmc was in line with euro

CMC gives us snow from both systems, just offshore is 6-10 plus, this is looking good, ok I take back my banter lol

0Z EURO did take a step in the right direction for both events. Compared to its 12z run from yesterday, the trough axis and polar disturbance is west for the first event, thus not as progressive. The second system, the energy was a bit stronger, dug a bit more, and it did allow the polar jet to kick out just ahead. However, there is still separation that needs to be had for us to see a bigger storm with the 2nd wave. It did take a step towards that, and today into tonight is when we'll begin to get better sampling of these shortwaves. I believe given the cold airmass, that the first event is more of a 1-3/2-4" for the coastal plain and we do see snow out of this when all said and done. Lets see what 12z brings us.

Armando Salvadore wrote:0Z EURO did take a step in the right direction for both events. Compared to its 12z run from yesterday, the trough axis and polar disturbance is west for the first event, thus not as progressive. The second system, the energy was a bit stronger, dug a bit more, and it did allow the polar jet to kick out just ahead. However, there is still separation that needs to be had for us to see a bigger storm with the 2nd wave. It did take a step towards that, and today into tonight is when we'll begin to get better sampling of these shortwaves. I believe given the cold airmass, that the first event is more of a 1-3/2-4" for the coastal plain and we do see snow out of this when all said and done. Lets see what 12z brings us.

Agree completely.

EPS (euro ensembles) for this wave. Pretty good agreement.

Some GEFS members REALLY like this wave

Wave 1 and Wave 2 are still possible. Don't give up

Frank_Wx wrote:

Armando Salvadore wrote:0Z EURO did take a step in the right direction for both events. Compared to its 12z run from yesterday, the trough axis and polar disturbance is west for the first event, thus not as progressive. The second system, the energy was a bit stronger, dug a bit more, and it did allow the polar jet to kick out just ahead. However, there is still separation that needs to be had for us to see a bigger storm with the 2nd wave. It did take a step towards that, and today into tonight is when we'll begin to get better sampling of these shortwaves. I believe given the cold airmass, that the first event is more of a 1-3/2-4" for the coastal plain and we do see snow out of this when all said and done. Lets see what 12z brings us.

Agree completely.

When u say when all said and done we do see snow, do u mean from 2nd waves as well?

jake732 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

Armando Salvadore wrote:0Z EURO did take a step in the right direction for both events. Compared to its 12z run from yesterday, the trough axis and polar disturbance is west for the first event, thus not as progressive. The second system, the energy was a bit stronger, dug a bit more, and it did allow the polar jet to kick out just ahead. However, there is still separation that needs to be had for us to see a bigger storm with the 2nd wave. It did take a step towards that, and today into tonight is when we'll begin to get better sampling of these shortwaves. I believe given the cold airmass, that the first event is more of a 1-3/2-4" for the coastal plain and we do see snow out of this when all said and done. Lets see what 12z brings us.

Agree completely.

When u say when all said and done we do see snow, do u mean from 2nd waves as well?

No. I mean whether it's from wave 1 or wave 2, or both, we will see snow.

Hearing SREFS look good for wave 1. 

New SREFS

Total precip...looks like 2-4"

By the way, I have this link bookmarked though I don't use it much anymore. It converts precip to snowfall based on air temperature. It's good for a high ratio event. As example, SREFS show .25 QPF which equates to about 2.5" of snow assuming 10:1 ratio. Handy link to bookmark

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grb/misc/Snow_water.pdf

can I ask..if this were to take place would this be a daytime event or night event...just curious

weatherwatchermom wrote:can I ask..if this were to take place would this be a daytime event or night event...just curious

Friday morning between 4am-12pm.

thank you!!

As of the euro 00z initiation here is the energy that is going to play a role in wave 1.  As you can see 1 & 2 are still in poorly sampled areas.  12z will start good sampling but 00z tonight should really give us the answer.  

I guess my one concern is the precip field on the northern frindge will likely fall as virga.

Frank_Wx wrote:Total precip...looks like 2-4"

.25-.33" at night those temps 3-5" snowfall IMHO!...............and yes I know that's only a 1" difference from what you posted but it might be enough for a school teacher to get another 3 day weekend.

GFS getting closer with Wave 1 A near Miss one to two inches Central New Jersey Southern New Jersey eastern half of Long Island

algae888 wrote:GFS getting closer with Wave 1 A near Miss one to two inches Central New Jersey Southern New Jersey eastern half of Long Island

If its not virga

Today's guidance, aside from the SREFS, are unimpressed with Wave 1.