January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Vinnydula on Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:14 pm

No way this storm comes back north
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:15 pm

Snow88 wrote:Wave 1 might be the real deal

Wave 2 is done

Well the south is in for a big storm, of course the hot area gets the snow, go figure.
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Snow88 on Mon Jan 02, 2017 11:27 pm

CMC has a few inches for the area

Both the Ukie and CMC like wave 2
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 12:07 am

Snow88 wrote:CMC has a few inches for the area

Both the Ukie and CMC like wave 2

thats different cuz cmc was in line with euro
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 12:08 am

CMC gives us snow from both systems, just offshore is 6-10 plus, this is looking good, ok I take back my banter lol
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Armando Salvadore on Tue Jan 03, 2017 7:24 am

0Z EURO did take a step in the right direction for both events. Compared to its 12z run from yesterday, the trough axis and polar disturbance is west for the first event, thus not as progressive. The second system, the energy was a bit stronger, dug a bit more, and it did allow the polar jet to kick out just ahead. However, there is still separation that needs to be had for us to see a bigger storm with the 2nd wave. It did take a step towards that, and today into tonight is when we'll begin to get better sampling of these shortwaves. I believe given the cold airmass, that the first event is more of a 1-3/2-4" for the coastal plain and we do see snow out of this when all said and done. Lets see what 12z brings us.
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 03, 2017 7:37 am

Armando Salvadore wrote:0Z EURO did take a step in the right direction for both events. Compared to its 12z run from yesterday, the trough axis and polar disturbance is west for the first event, thus not as progressive. The second system, the energy was a bit stronger, dug a bit more, and it did allow the polar jet to kick out just ahead. However, there is still separation that needs to be had for us to see a bigger storm with the 2nd wave. It did take a step towards that, and today into tonight is when we'll begin to get better sampling of these shortwaves. I believe given the cold airmass, that the first event is more of a 1-3/2-4" for the coastal plain and we do see snow out of this when all said and done. Lets see what 12z brings us.

Agree completely.

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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 03, 2017 7:44 am

EPS (euro ensembles) for this wave. Pretty good agreement.


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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 03, 2017 7:46 am

Some GEFS members REALLY like this wave





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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 7:46 am

Wave 1 and Wave 2 are still possible. Don't give up

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Dec 11th = coating
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Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by jake732 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:06 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
Armando Salvadore wrote:0Z EURO did take a step in the right direction for both events. Compared to its 12z run from yesterday, the trough axis and polar disturbance is west for the first event, thus not as progressive. The second system, the energy was a bit stronger, dug a bit more, and it did allow the polar jet to kick out just ahead. However, there is still separation that needs to be had for us to see a bigger storm with the 2nd wave. It did take a step towards that, and today into tonight is when we'll begin to get better sampling of these shortwaves. I believe given the cold airmass, that the first event is more of a 1-3/2-4" for the coastal plain and we do see snow out of this when all said and done. Lets see what 12z brings us.

Agree completely.


When u say when all said and done we do see snow, do u mean from 2nd waves as well?
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:10 am

jake732 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
Armando Salvadore wrote:0Z EURO did take a step in the right direction for both events. Compared to its 12z run from yesterday, the trough axis and polar disturbance is west for the first event, thus not as progressive. The second system, the energy was a bit stronger, dug a bit more, and it did allow the polar jet to kick out just ahead. However, there is still separation that needs to be had for us to see a bigger storm with the 2nd wave. It did take a step towards that, and today into tonight is when we'll begin to get better sampling of these shortwaves. I believe given the cold airmass, that the first event is more of a 1-3/2-4" for the coastal plain and we do see snow out of this when all said and done. Lets see what 12z brings us.

Agree completely.


When u say when all said and done we do see snow, do u mean from 2nd waves as well?

No. I mean whether it's from wave 1 or wave 2, or both, we will see snow.

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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:19 am

Hearing SREFS look good for wave 1. 

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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:26 am

New SREFS






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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:31 am

Total precip...looks like 2-4"


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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:33 am

By the way, I have this link bookmarked though I don't use it much anymore. It converts precip to snowfall based on air temperature. It's good for a high ratio event. As example, SREFS show .25 QPF which equates to about 2.5" of snow assuming 10:1 ratio. Handy link to bookmark Smile

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/grb/misc/Snow_water.pdf


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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:34 am

can I ask..if this were to take place would this be a daytime event or night event...just curious
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:35 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:can I ask..if this were to take place would this be a daytime event or night event...just curious

Friday morning between 4am-12pm.

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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:35 am

thank you!! Very Happy
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:44 am

As of the euro 00z initiation here is the energy that is going to play a role in wave 1.  As you can see 1 & 2 are still in poorly sampled areas.  12z will start good sampling but 00z tonight should really give us the answer.  



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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:34 am

I guess my one concern is the precip field on the northern frindge will likely fall as virga.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:11 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Total precip...looks like 2-4"


.25-.33" at night those temps 3-5" snowfall IMHO!...............and yes I know that's only a 1" difference from what you posted but it might be enough for a school teacher to get another 3 day weekend. Shocked Shocked
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by algae888 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 10:58 am

GFS getting closer with Wave 1 A near Miss one to two inches Central New Jersey Southern New Jersey eastern half of Long Island
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:19 am

algae888 wrote:GFS getting closer with Wave 1 A near Miss one to two inches Central New Jersey Southern New Jersey eastern half of Long Island

If its not virga

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:19 am

Today's guidance, aside from the SREFS, are unimpressed with Wave 1.

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2016-2017: 19.0"

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Re: January 5th-6th Wave 1 Snow Event

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