January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
So I am going to say very little to no chance of me seeing anything in Wyoming Valley?
mikeypizano- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Mikey P, hard to say.This is a nowcast situation, a jog 25 miles west will help us N and W folks.Radar looks to be filling on the West side.We will see.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Latest surface analysis and upper air indicates our neutral tilt of the trough is still in a neutral tilt slightly going negative a bit. Water vapor indicates a baroclinic leaf off the entire east coast with the best lifting over VA, Delmarva, and now into SE NJ with banding being seen a bit offshore. Dew points between NNJ and SNJ have over a 10 point spread differential (green number), so we can see cold air advection is an issue and dry air with it. However, we're seeing better saturation at 700mb and reports from SNJ and CNJ are for snow currently. Here comes the test as to where subsidence happens and how long before saturation occurs. Also a test for the RGEM, NAM, and other short range mess models. I'd like to see better 700-850mb temp. advection. Happy tracking!
Armando Salvadore- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Flakes here
Vinnydula- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Just started snowing in Douglaston
pkmak- Posts : 27
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Flakes now starting to reach the ground here on Central LI
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Armando Salvadore wrote:Latest surface analysis and upper air indicates our neutral tilt of the trough is still in a neutral tilt slightly going negative a bit. Water vapor indicates a baroclinic leaf off the entire east coast with the best lifting over VA, Delmarva, and now into SE NJ with banding being seen a bit offshore. Dew points between NNJ and SNJ have over a 10 point spread differential (green number), so we can see cold air advection is an issue and dry air with it. However, we're seeing better saturation at 700mb and reports from SNJ and CNJ are for snow currently. Here comes the test as to where subsidence happens and how long before saturation occurs. Also a test for the RGEM, NAM, and other short range mess models. I'd like to see better 700-850mb temp. advection. Happy tracking!
Very interesting post and helps to understand how cold dry air prevents saturation and therefor lowers snow amounts.Yes, its nowcast time.Let's see how the models play out today.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Moderate anti-virga here.
16 degrees
16 degrees
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Snow flurries just started up here. 25*. Now the fun begins!
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
It started!!!!!!!
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Flakes flying now in Hackensack and breezy
freezerburn- Posts : 16
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Started coming down and sticking in Western Monmouth County
dsvinos- Posts : 68
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Moderate anti-virga here.
16 degrees
Same here, moderate to heavy anti-virga, 17.9, 67%, 30.01 R
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
started snowing ever so lightly about 30 minutes ago....currently 24* rf 16* winds ne @ 9mph humidity is 60%
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Doc, CP, Janet..........I feel for you guys. You know it's sincere. Going forward the pattern turns unfavorable for us S and E folks and you will all cash in again BIG TIME.
24 degrees here. Stiff north wind about 15mph. WSW in effect. An average of about .5"qpf should yeild about 6-8 IMBY.
Light snow just started. Very light
24 degrees here. Stiff north wind about 15mph. WSW in effect. An average of about .5"qpf should yeild about 6-8 IMBY.
Light snow just started. Very light
Last edited by syosnow94 on Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:55 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
dsvinos wrote:Started coming down and sticking in Western Monmouth County
so I guess its coming here to hazlet soon...lol..just starting to stick to the cars... keep us posted..how it is in Marlboro...supposed to go to nieces homecoming dinner later in your neck of the woods...have a great day!
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
For anyone wondering, 12z NAM back west again.
snow247- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Flurries here. 24*
Dew point up to 10*
Dew point up to 10*
Dtone- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Models don't matter at this point but here the NAM for the heck of it
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
syosnow94 wrote:Doc, CP, Janet..........I feel for you guys. You know it's sincere. Going forward the pattern turns unfavorable for us S and E folks and you will all cash in again BIG TIME.
24 degrees here. Stiff north wind about 15mph. WSW in effect. An average of about .5"qpf should yeild about 6-8 IMBY.
Light snow just started. Very light
No problem Jimmy, you guys enjoy the day and hope you all bust high out there.Maybe we can squeeze out a few inches N and W today if this baby jogs west a bit.We will see.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Greenpoint, Brooklyn, 23.1 degrees, light snow just began.
Gator99- Posts : 27
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
woah and I font think they use ratios do they? If not that's a huge uptic.Frank_Wx wrote:
Models don't matter at this point but here the NAM for the heck of it
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
AWESOME example of jet dynamics! Storm is currently is SE of South Carolina, however, the right rear entrance of the jet streak is causing for an enhancement to the precipitation shield because of the divergence sector. By the way, reporting snow flakes here in NE NJ with a DP of 7. Temp is at 23 degrees.
Armando Salvadore- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
hopefully that dark green can get west.Frank_Wx wrote:
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Dewpoints in the 20s here up from 12° great sign
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: January 7, 2017 Storm Observations
Frank that jet looks to be just where u wanted it to b to get things west no?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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