January 22nd-24th Nor'easter Observations & Discussions

Finally got my wind advisory. Gotta love the last second drama. Can't forget that this storm has caused at least 11 fatalities.

TheAresian wrote:Will it be considered bad manners to celebrate if I get a bunch of snow? Or is it okay just so long as I keep it off the board?

Absolutely, Aresian, celebrate Man, your area has been in a snow hole for years.Can't remember the last time a major snowstorm hit your area.But be wary of the S and E trend!!! Time after time it carries the heaviest snow away.At least where I am in the HV.Good Luck!!!

If the heavy stuff hits you, please post if you can reports during the day.

Frank_Wx wrote:I hope this storm goes to hell

huh? In what way do u mean that? Do u recommend my wife stats home from work tomorrow? Looks like evening commute will b a nightmare round 430 5ish for her.

Wouldn't it b epic I'd this ended up b a snow or sleeticane for the coast. All the people who paid this no mind suddenly wpuld b stuck on the forum lol

Oh my UK lol NYC 2.5-3" of liquid equivalent lol Ark, anybody?

UKMET significantly further east with the 850 closed low. Thermal gradient is marginally cooler, but that could be due to lower resolution. Don't quote me on that, though. Still could also be advertising a warm nose.

TheAresian wrote:Will it be considered bad manners to celebrate if I get a bunch of snow? Or is it okay just so long as I keep it off the board?

No way. Celebrate as much as you want.

Crazy down south. Northern Florida/Southern Georgia have a Tor Con of 9 for this afternoon into this evening!!

UKMET 10m winds are about on par with what we've been seeing: 35-45 mph sustained on the coast.

JMA looks like the rest of guidance today, although further northwest with the warmth aloft than the CMC. Doesn't look as wet, with a regional average of about 1.25" of liquid equivalent, and a bit less windy.

At a tax training class until 3 and then I think ill join frank with breaking out the wine and Nutella and get myself caught up on this storm. Beginning to look very interesting especially here in Binghamton, might be able get snow out of this. Crazy because it's 50 degrees out right now lol

Is that not weaker the last night with the winds for the coast by a lot?

GFS getting more wintry?? I think so.....

Once again I'll ask if you have the New England version. If there were more storms like this coming I'd renew my WxBell sunscription.

Thank you, rb. Almost every run shows something good.

Given the latest development from guidance I figured I'll put out one last update with an Impact Map. I don't have time to write-up a synopsis, but most of what I said yesterday still stands. The biggest change is the 500mb, 750mb, and 850mb low's are expected to track just off the coast according to guidance. This would pull low level cold air closer to the coast and bring about more wintry precipitation. To me, the biggest concern remains high winds and coastal flooding. We'll see how models trend with the wintry precip later tonight, but I feel that would be mainly confined to interior and N&W of NYC. Don't be surprised to hear thunder tomorrow. This storm looks ferocious on current radar imagery.

EURO LOOKS LIKE RGEM AT H5!!!

UKMET total precip

EURO

Frank_Wx wrote:Given the latest development from guidance I figured I'll put out one last update with an Impact Map. I don't have time to write-up a synopsis, but most of what I said yesterday still stands. The biggest change is the 500mb, 750mb, and 850mb low's are expected to track just off the coast according to guidance. This would pull low level cold air closer to the coast and bring about more wintry precipitation. To me, the biggest concern remains high winds and coastal flooding. We'll see how models trend with the wintry precip later tonight, but I feel that would be mainly confined to interior and N&W of NYC. Don't be surprised to hear thunder tomorrow. This storm looks ferocious on current radar imagery.

that's perfect every aspect covered in one map nice. Still badically same with winds and rain for my area. Thunder cool. Ya a torn 9 down south I don't ever remember that from two
Not that I watch them lol.

Frank_Wx wrote:Given the latest development from guidance I figured I'll put out one last update with an Impact Map. I don't have time to write-up a synopsis, but most of what I said yesterday still stands. The biggest change is the 500mb, 750mb, and 850mb low's are expected to track just off the coast according to guidance. This would pull low level cold air closer to the coast and bring about more wintry precipitation. To me, the biggest concern remains high winds and coastal flooding. We'll see how models trend with the wintry precip later tonight, but I feel that would be mainly confined to interior and N&W of NYC. Don't be surprised to hear thunder tomorrow. This storm looks ferocious on current radar imagery.

Yep, looks good Frank, what the soundings were showing in today's runs.... not much frozen precip for the immediate area, really need to go north and west. Looking forward to seeing where the heaviest bands set up and who gets sleet...

Yeah, GREAT map, Frank!! That agrees with what I put out last night on my FB page (which btw, thanks for the "like"!), although I think I might add more snow in after today's runs. Idk for sure, though haha

I know this storm is frustrating for the snow lovers (I do continue to stew a bit over how much different this could have been with just a tiny bit more cold air. A blizzard one year to the day of last year's, blizzard. *sigh*), but it sure is one of the more complex systems we've encountered recently.

Great map Frank - HOLY EURO - COming inline with RGEM and NAM Suites interesting to see what NAM has 18 and 0z runs wow.

Much more frozen precip N&W - cutoff is BC/ PC line in NNJ.







Wetter TOOOOOO!!

Hoping we see some decent snow in the Wyoming Valley, but I am not sure if we will.