Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[amugs]

Does this mean rain to the coast and snow well inland or we get a nice snowstorm for everyone for the super bowl storm

Frank it is a long way out as Frank (Emperor) has stated a few posts above. Could you imagine another Super Bowl Storm - that would make 3 out of the last 4 years we have had one!

Tom honking - awesome sign and excellent write up thank you for sharing you thoughts here for us to use our webster dictionaries - LOL!!

Everyone wants NAO block but I have to say it has been the most elusive feature since I joined on any forum in 2011. One things I have learned though it can poop up 72 hours before the storm as we have seen over these past few years.

From Earthlight - great gif showing the PNA ridge in the west and teh retrogression of the aleutian Ridge

file:///jhomenuk/status/825357477843697664

[amugs]

MJO showing sings of goodness here going into 8 then 1 and onto 2.
A very good progression and sign for this month. Models are still lagging with this so we'll see!

[Frank_Wx]

Part 2 of my late Jan to early Feb pattern change video will be released tomorrow or Monday

[algae888]

Today's Euro just misses with a bomb offshore eps doesn't agree Benchmark track fun week or two or three coming up

[frank 638]

I look forward frank thanks bud .hopefully u will see a blizzard comeimg soon

[skinsfan1177]

Many snow chances in the upcoming weeks

[algae888]

Both the EPs and the gefs have some higher Heights near Greenland and look to trap the polar vortex in southeast Canada where it just sits and Spins for days upon end. Also that's a pretty impressive EPO block that last for days and days. I was a little hesitant to buy this terrific pattern coming up but I'm getting ready to jump in 100%. I should also add that if the mjo ends up as modeled now this pattern could last into early March.

[skinsfan1177]

I know this is long range but nam para delivers the goods to the shore with inverted trough any input I know these are difficult to nail down. s

[amugs]

I know this is long range but nam para delivers the goods to the shore with inverted trough any input I know these are difficult to nail down. s

Are u shitting me - you guys and LI have been in the jackpot forever it seems. Pleas dont tell me no you have not. If you do I will use my EX Snow King Weenie powers and delete your post!
12K NAM agrees as well - need a 100 mile Jog north - HAHAHA
Wednesday system - maybe a nice little clipper that can lay down a couple of inches. Thi is going to be the start of a very active period and when yuo have Isotherm talking positive geopotential heights over teh NAO region we ALL listen - he said this in his winter right up that later winter we could see the PV disturbed like chief from one flew over the cuckoo's nest  for teh late part of winter like the arly 70's as an analog.

IVT snow chances SKINS and JAKE (the snake) FTW here!!

[amugs]

18Z NAM AND RGEM - BITE ME -

[skinsfan1177]

I know this is long range but nam para delivers the goods to the shore with inverted trough any input I know these are difficult to nail down. s

Are u shitting me - you guys and LI have been in the jackpot forever it seems. Pleas dont tell me no you have not. If you do I will use my EX Snow King Weenie powers and delete your post!
12K NAM agrees as well - need a 100 mile Jog north - HAHAHA
Wednesday system - maybe a nice little clipper that can lay down a couple of inches. Thi is going to be the start of a very active period and when yuo have Isotherm talking positive geopotential heights over teh NAO region we ALL listen - he said this in his winter right up that later winter we could see the PV disturbed like chief from one flew over the cuckoo's nest  for teh late part of winter like the arly 70's as an analog.

IVT snow chances SKINS and JAKE (the snake) FTW here!!

I know we have mugs I'm just saying and I want everyone to get the white gold. I will talk it over with the snow Gods and hoping everyone gets snowmageddon in February lol

[Dunnzoo]

Oh Lord mugs, look where the snow hole is on the 18z!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I know this is long range but nam para delivers the goods to the shore with inverted trough any input I know these are difficult to nail down. s

48 hours away you don't want to be in the bulls eye with these unpredictable norluns, but it certainly looks like someone somewhere on the Jersy coast may do well with this.

[jake732]

I know this is long range but nam para delivers the goods to the shore with inverted trough any input I know these are difficult to nail down. s

Are u shitting me - you guys and LI have been in the jackpot forever it seems. Pleas dont tell me no you have not. If you do I will use my EX Snow King Weenie powers and delete your post!
12K NAM agrees as well - need a 100 mile Jog north - HAHAHA
Wednesday system - maybe a nice little clipper that can lay down a couple of inches. Thi is going to be the start of a very active period and when yuo have Isotherm talking positive geopotential heights over teh NAO region we ALL listen - he said this in his winter right up that later winter we could see the PV disturbed like chief from one flew over the cuckoo's nest  for teh late part of winter like the arly 70's as an analog.

IVT snow chances SKINS and JAKE (the snake) FTW here!!

I know we have mugs I'm just saying and I want everyone to get the white gold. I will talk it over with the snow Gods and hoping everyone gets snowmageddon in February lol

agree skinns

[Snow88]

0z Nam gives South Jersey a few inches from the inverted trough and a dusting up here.

[Snow88]

GFS pops a low close to the coast. Looks like some snow showers for the area with a little more down in SNJ.

[devsman]

GFS shreds precip for superbowl storm to the point of nothing. Should we worry?

[Math23x7]

The 21Z SREFs finally came out after a long delay. Unlike the 15Z SREFs, where not one member showed LaGuardia getting at least one inch of snow, the 21Z SREFs show nine out of 26 members getting at least one inch of snow, the most weenie of them all has over six inches of snow there!

[nutleyblizzard]

A lot of model jumping with last nights 0z runs with our post Super Bowl storm. CMC still shows a big storm, while the EURO has lost it completely. The GFS was weak and OTS, only to bring it back big time this morning at 6z. Model chaos at its finest.

[skinsfan1177]

6a here it is

[skinsfan1177]

Wasn't sure where to put this because their is no thread for it.

Urgent - Winter Weather message
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
324 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2017

...Snow is expected for late tonight into Monday morning...

.low pressure is forecast to develop over Virginia late today. The Low is anticipated to pass off the delmarva coast late tonight before moving out to sea on Monday.

Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May- Atlantic coastal Cape May-coastal Atlantic-coastal Ocean- Southeastern Burlington- including the cities of Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Jackson, Millville, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City, Atlantic City, Long Beach Island, and Wharton state Forest 324 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2017

...Winter Weather advisory in effect from 3 AM to Noon EST Monday...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Winter Weather advisory for Snow. It is in effect from 300 AM Monday until Noon on Monday.

* Locations...Southern New Jersey.

* Hazard Type...Snow.

* Snow accumulations...From 1 to 3 inches.

* Timing...Snow is forecast to overspread the region after Midnight and it should continue into Monday morning. The Snow May Mix with or change to Rain before ending by midday on Monday.

* Impacts...The Snow May Impact travel conditions, especially during the Monday morning commute. Roads and walkways May become Snow covered and slippery.

* Temperatures...Generally in the upper 20s and lower 30s during the Snow event.

* Visibility...Around or less than a half mile at times.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This Winter Weather advisory Means that a period of Snow May cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery Roads and limited visibility. Use Extra caution while driving.

Please report Snow accumulations to the National Weather Service by calling our trained spotter line...Posting to the nws Mount Holly facebook Page or by using twitter.

Snowfall and Ice accumulation forecast maps in addition to experimental probabilistic snowfall information for this event are available online at www.weather.gov/phi/winter

&&

[Armando Salvadore]

As for the Feb 6th-7th event, i'd not worry at this juncture. The storm signal is there and it's a strong one. Beforehand, there are about 2-3 clippers we must watch for beginning tomorrow as models and ensembles have trended a bit more robust with the wave. Looking at best potential between the upper delmarva into SNJ, possibly watching it shift north a bit. We shall see what guidance says today. Then, energy will pinwheel SE from a lobe of the TPV sitting over SE Canada. Tues-Wed is one period to watch and then thursday/friday, but the clipper around tuesday offers the better potential of the clippers for northern sections relative to tomorrow's event. These pieces of energy will help to lower heights over SE Canada, and should help setup for that event around the 6th. It depends on the positioning of the TPV and possibly we see some 50/50 positioning to help slow down the jet enough to see interaction between the N and S stream. Still much to decipher because of the large scale pacific blocking and its retrogression that is causing downstream impacts and mayhem on the modeling. Watch the 0Z EPS retrograde that block and allow for lower heights to manifest over Alaska and then pumping up a western ridge. Another storm signal around the 11th as well. No coincidence to see tropical forcing turn in our favor by the 9th of Feb. Also, 0z ECMWF has a split of the SPV and downfalls to about 30mb by day 10 and is shown by a followed up wave 2. Interesting...

[nutleyblizzard]

Hour 156 on 12z GFS: our Superbowl storm is developing in northern Texas. Confluence is much stronger on this run. I don't think its going to cut on this run. Looks like a coastal to me.

[nutleyblizzard]

Still manages to cut near Pittsburgh then transfers to coastal just in time for most of us. Miller B setup. Taken this run verbatim, a little too close for comfort for me if you want a snowstorm.

[Dunnzoo]

snow hole still over NNJ

[amugs]

This is a nice look for the EURO EPS last night s 0z run. question is is that Greenland block that is being modelled going to occur - looks to be in teh time line Isotherm (Tom) wrote about a couple days ago. IF this does occur it can lock in this trough and cold and it becomes a true matter of when the storms will pop for us.

EDIT : Armando just seeing your post (excellent write up) after I did this write up

[amugs]

From Judah Cohen: Warming g on euro will it be enough to do the job on the PV?

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