Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[amugs]

This is a nice look for the EURO EPS last night s 0z run. question is is that Greenland block that is being modelled going to occur - looks to be in teh time line Isotherm (Tom) wrote about a couple days ago. IF this does occur it can lock in this trough and cold and it becomes a true matter of when the storms will pop for us.

EDIT : Armando just seeing your post (excellent write up) after I did this write up

[amugs]

From Judah Cohen: Warming g on euro will it be enough to do the job on the PV?

[rb924119]

EURO Op has zero clue about the potential system for the 5th/6th. Based on the Northern Hemispheric configuration we have many stars aligning in my opinion for this to be a widespread significant storm from the southwestern Ohio Valley through New England. The emergence of the MJO into phases 5-6 will actually HELP our situation here, as we have all other factors favoring troughing in the East. Those factors will likely deliver the northern stream energy faster and more deeply than currently modeled. Contemporaneously, the emergence of the MJO pulse into phases 5/6 should allow a slight amplification of southeastern ridging enough to steer the southern stream more northeast than east or east-northeast. Together, these factors should allow for an almost ideal scenario, with a coalescence of the two energies somewhere over the mid- or eastern Ohio Valley, again, in my opinion. Although a Miller-B solution will be likely under these assumptions, it should force redevelopment of a coastal low somewhere over the interior of Virginia as the low-level center encounters the Appalachians is forced to "jump" eastward following the best forcing mechanisms aloft, which will then likely track northeast. Might be too soon to make a call like this, and a lot can change, but based on my current broad analysis, I am beginning to feel significantly more strongly about this system delivering significant wintry impacts to at least a part of our area.

[amugs]

Ray love it when you honk about a storm. 
In Ray We Trust!!

[amugs]

Just as Ray posts this the JMA shows this

[jmanley32]

That's a Godzilla just offshore.

[amugs]

GFS has storm potential GALORE these past 2 runs every 2 -3  days there is potential for snow some light this week but more significant next week and the following.

[skinsfan1177]

Lots potential meaning lots of tracking

[billg315]

Looking at the models and the trends I feel pretty good about the Feb. 5-6 storm potential. I think things will come together. And then there is this, which is completely non-scientific, but: I have two friends who frequently visit Hawaii. Almost every time they leave to go to Hawaii a snowstorm hits back here at home while they are there. They are leaving for Hawaii this coming weekend. If tradition holds we will have a snowstorm sometime between Feb.4 and Feb. 10.

[amugs]

GFS has storm potential GALORE these past 2 runs every 2 -3  days there is potential for snow some light this week but more significant next week and the following.

[Isotherm]

I continue to be quite intrigued by the potential stratospheric progression over the next couple weeks, which may lead to situation whereby NAM values reach their minima in the second half of February into the first half of March. The models are slowly but surely beginning to detect what I've been noting over the past week concerning the more effective wave-2 follow up, subsequent to the initial ongoing w1/displacement event. The susceptibility of the stratospheric vortex to further attacks will be increased via the w1, but it will be insufficient insofar as significant tropospheric geopotential height reversal in the NAM/NAO domains. However, the wave-2 precursor should induce an upward propagating splitting wave, possibly in the 2/8-2/15 period. Dual action from the Eurasian and Pacific sides could effectuate a fairly rapid tropospheric response by mid February and onward.



I am not yet at the inflection point of pulling the trigger on this evolution definitively, in terms of stratospheric progression and subsequent tropospheric response, but my confidence on the probability of its occurrence is increasing. The resultant impacts could be our most negative NAO/AO period of the winter, circa 2/15-3/15. The NAO and AO are neutral to positive for the first half of Feb.



As far as the synoptic set-ups for snow prior to 2/15, 2/6 still looks like a time frame to monitor for a moderate event. I am not as interested in 2/6 as I was in prior days, but it still holds potential certainly.



Regardless, an intriguing period of tracking from a meteorological, academic perspective at the very least. Changes are clearly afoot with the BDC and O3 transport, although the WQBO will attempt to destructively interfere, its modulation will be lessened by the double-jab wave flux. I expect stratospheric charts to become more impressive again in the D10+.

[Isotherm]

I also forgot to note that the concurrent MJO pulse reaching possibly phase 8 circa 2/12 should work synergistically with the w2, lending further credence to the possible -NAO/AO development Feb 15+ with the more significant storm risk (maybe) coming thereafter due to lag.

[Frank_Wx]

00z GFS SuberBowl Sunday storm

[Frank_Wx]

After SuperBowl storm, another potential exists between 8th and 10th. Shown on all guidance and fits the pattern.

[Armando Salvadore]

Thanks Tom, yea mentioned that earlier about in conjunction with the MJO ignition, w2 would subsequently follow thereafter aided once we see w1 impact. By the way, not to get ahead of myself, but that 0z gfs run after the 6th... frank there is your godzilla potential in the GOM!

[amugs]

6Z GFS Nice ol' snowstorm





then the 8-9th - JIM WITT made this call back in August and again the 22-24th time frame again.

[track17]

skins looks like our winter is over at the jersey shore every threat has us at rain. Oh well good luck to everyone else

[rb924119]

skins looks like our winter is over at the jersey shore every threat has us at rain. Oh well good luck to everyone else

WOAH WOAH WOAH WOAHHHHH Blasphemy of the highest order!! Cp where's that Monty Python clip??? Nah, in all seriousness buddy, do NOT sweat the details at this point. All any of us should care about right now is that the signal is still there. Don't forget the last storm we had that was largely sleet where 24 hours before H5 was progged to track through Pittsburgh, Pa and ended up swinging 500 miles right to exit off the Delmarva. If changes like that are possible, a 50-mile shift of the thermal gradient should pretty much be expected, whether for good or bad. Patience, my friend, patience.

[skinsfan1177]

skins looks like our winter is over at the jersey shore every threat has us at rain. Oh well good luck to everyone else

WOAH WOAH WOAH WOAHHHHH Blasphemy of the highest order!! Cp where's that Monty Python clip??? Nah, in all seriousness buddy, do NOT sweat the details at this point. All any of us should care about right now is that the signal is still there. Don't forget the last storm we had that was largely sleet where 24 hours before H5 was progged to track through Pittsburgh, Pa and ended up swinging 500 miles right to exit off the Delmarva. If changes like that are possible, a 50-mile shift of the thermal gradient should pretty much be expected, whether for good or bad. Patience, my friend, patience.

Great post I like the spot we are in don't want jackpot spot right now lots of time. Patience

[dsix85]

I'm sure I missed it, but can someone explain what a "Mothrazilla" is?

[jake732]

pretty consistent gfs model. nice to see. i would like to see it trend colder soon but cant bug out about that yet.

[sroc4]

This is exciting stuff should this occur verbatim. Dont look now but GFS has a full on SSWE. Now it is the LR so take with a grain of salt, but our Strat guru Isotherm, has bee getting more and more excited about this possibility. The process begins about day 10 but here are the images for day 15 showing a top to bottom split to the Strat PV which would lead to a high probability of an amazing final act for winter ending Feb and early March. I look forward to updates from Isotherm over the next 1-2weeks regarding the strat.

[Frank_Wx]

I'm sure I missed it, but can someone explain what a "Mothrazilla" is?

Click the link in my signature

This is exciting stuff should this occur verbatim.  Dont look now but GFS has a full on SSWE.  Now it is the LR so take with a grain of salt, but our Strat guru Isotherm, has bee getting more and more excited about this possibility.  The process begins about day 10 but here are the images for day 15 showing a top to bottom split to the Strat PV which would lead to a high probability of an amazing final act for winter ending Feb and early March.  I look forward to updates from Isotherm over the next 1-2weeks regarding the strat.  

[Frank_Wx]

The storm threat between the 8th-10th has Roidzilla potential.

[jmanley32]

The storm threat between the 8th-10th has Roidzilla potential.

Stop playing! LOL, I just got myself to accept only seeing a mothra and no godzilla no you got me hoping for a roid LOL, this winter is topsy turvy. Just as long as weekend of Feb 17th-119th is clear for travel I am a go for a mega storm.

[Frank_Wx]

The storm threat between the 8th-10th has Roidzilla potential.

Stop playing! LOL, I just got myself to accept only seeing a mothra and no godzilla no you got me hoping for a roid LOL, this winter is topsy turvy.  Just as long as weekend of Feb 17th-119th is clear for travel I am a go for a mega storm.

Don't confuse the events. February 5th-6th is the Mothrazilla/Godzilla one. 8th-10th is a different system (check homepage)

[Frank_Wx]

GFS was close to showing a Godzilla for the storm threat on Sunday

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