Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[Frank_Wx]

The storm threat between the 8th-10th has Roidzilla potential.

Stop playing! LOL, I just got myself to accept only seeing a mothra and no godzilla no you got me hoping for a roid LOL, this winter is topsy turvy.  Just as long as weekend of Feb 17th-119th is clear for travel I am a go for a mega storm.

Don't confuse the events. February 5th-6th is the Mothrazilla/Godzilla one. 8th-10th is a different system (check homepage)

[Frank_Wx]

GFS was close to showing a Godzilla for the storm threat on Sunday

[Frank_Wx]

The GFS has a potent southern energy for the system on the 5th. It also has partial phasing with northern energy. A full out phase would result in Godzilla snow amounts for the area. It's VERY close verbatim.

[Frank_Wx]

By Day 10, we're seeing a Wave 2 Trop precursor pattern set up. This is awesome.

[jmanley32]

Wow 12z GFS I can see, it is a big storm coming all the way up from the south, that is usually how we get out big ones!

[jmanley32]

The storm threat between the 8th-10th has Roidzilla potential.

Stop playing! LOL, I just got myself to accept only seeing a mothra and no godzilla no you got me hoping for a roid LOL, this winter is topsy turvy.  Just as long as weekend of Feb 17th-119th is clear for travel I am a go for a mega storm.

Don't confuse the events. February 5th-6th is the Mothrazilla/Godzilla one. 8th-10th is a different system (check homepage)

No no I understnad, I was saying I did not expect any events after 6th, but now got more to track yay!

[Frank_Wx]

WOW - 10hPa temp forecasts keep the SSW going. Starting to feel very confident in a SSWE happening.

[jake732]

frank sswe would mean that even after feb 15th the cold would stay??

[sroc4]

The GFS has officially come back to the European forecast with respect to the MJO progression.  GFS a few days ago was very robust with a pulse coming out in 7-8-1; whereas the Euro had it consistently come out in 4-5-6.  Both models are now actually in fairly good agreement with where things are going, and the forecasts seem to line up nicely with observations in the trop pac.   For this reason we need to watch very closely for the trends to the system for the 6th over the next several days.  




It may be that less N stream phasing occurs leading to a warmer soln overall. Euro may have been hinting at this despite its rather incoherent, and inconsistent model to model runs as of late.  Or even worse we see an earlier interaction over the plains between the Pac s/w and the N branch leading to a stronger soln too early and a cutting system. No body panic yet. This does not mean that we wont get a snow storm.  There will be some cold air in place, but it may be an older air mass rather than a fresh injection.  There is still alot of time to monitor the evolution so take what is being said here with grain of salt.  The Pac s/w that will be this system does not enter the west coast until Friday the earliest so sit back and enjoy the ride as we are likely to have ups and downs this week with this system.

Rb if your reading you mentioned a day or two ago that an MJO wave in phase 5-6 may actually help with this particular system.  Im not sure if I understand why.  If you could elaborate on that Id appreciate it.  If you have time.

[jmanley32]

WOW - 10hPa temp forecasts keep the SSW going. Starting to feel very confident in a SSWE happening.

Judging from your talk about this all winter, though a late arrival I assume this means Feb-March gonna go out with a bang and serious potential to push our snow totals wayyyy up?

[amugs]

The storm threat between the 8th-10th has Roidzilla potential.

Jim Witt just spoke to a friend from another board (they are good friends)  said 8-9 has same potential as the '78 PD storm and the 22-24th time frame for ditto storms. Saying he sitting back and going to let teh pattern and storms come to him. We may have Saturn and teh moon involved (full 8/9 or new22-24) if so watch out EC!! Not hyping anything but just conveying what the Yoda of Meteorology is talking!

FullNew Moons - sht miss it by a day or two but may be enough

Full Moon February 10, Fr. 07:33 PM
New Moon 26th 14:58 UTC

If we have a Nor' this would wreck the shores as well




Love this look - may have to send as my V-Day card to weenies!!
HOLY MOMMA's the GFS has storms again very 3 days like '94 and '96 chrips I may not make it to the ed of this month if this keeps up !

[Guest]

Is this all coastal or does the inland crowd have a chance at seeing some snow?

[Guest]

Everyone needs to relax a little. You know me and how much I love snow, but it seems like every threat except for ONE this winter hasn't worked out, so as long as the long range is what it is I for one will not expect anything till I actually see it.

On a side note, sroc4's word of caution about this weekend is not surprising based on what has transpired so far. I kind of expect Sunday's threat to trend warmer. Why not?

[amugs]

HUMINA HUMINA HUMINA!!! THE 9- 10th TH STORM JESUS MARY AND SAINT JOSEPH!!!
GEFS BARKING AT THIS AS IS EPS at this time of course

[jmanley32]

syo mr. negativity LOL, the CMC is a cutter for 8th but way to far off, we have seen many times cutters go to coastals. Mugs as long as its a noreaster thats snow I am good!

[amugs]

OP's throw out at this point - we have teh GEFS and EPS honking here!
OP's will waffle from a Godzilla to borderline precip to a sheared out mess!

[jake732]

way to far out for me to stay sain

[amugs]

EPS!! Supreme Bowl 

[Guest]

The Weather Channel website has this area getting 4-8 for next Tuesday, but nothing for Sunday.

[rb924119]

Really like what the 12z EPS did in the Arctic today, but cannot for the life of me understand what it's doing in the northeastern Pacific lol

[rb924119]

The GFS has officially come back to the European forecast with respect to the MJO progression.  GFS a few days ago was very robust with a pulse coming out in 7-8-1; whereas the Euro had it consistently come out in 4-5-6.  Both models are now actually in fairly good agreement with where things are going, and the forecasts seem to line up nicely with observations in the trop pac.   For this reason we need to watch very closely for the trends to the system for the 6th over the next several days.  




It may be that less N stream phasing occurs leading to a warmer soln overall.  Euro may have been hinting at this despite its rather incoherent, and inconsistent model to model runs as of late.  Or even worse we see an earlier interaction over the plains between the Pac s/w and the N branch leading to a stronger soln too early and a cutting system.  No body panic yet.  This does not mean that we wont get a snow storm.  There will be some cold air in place, but it may be an older air mass rather than a fresh injection.  There is still alot of time to monitor the evolution so take what is being said here with grain of salt.  The Pac s/w that will be this system does not enter the west coast until Friday the earliest so sit back and enjoy the ride as we are likely to have ups and downs this week with this system.  

Rb if your reading you mentioned a day or two ago that an MJO wave in phase 5-6 may actually help with this particular system.  Im not sure if I understand why.  If you could elaborate on that Id appreciate it.  If you have time.

Request seen. Video coming shortly.

[jmanley32]

The Weather Channel website has this area getting 4-8 for next Tuesday, but nothing for Sunday.

How in the world can TWC even make any kind of call on Feb 7th nearly 10 days out, ridiculous.

[Guest]

The Weather Channel website has this area getting 4-8 for next Tuesday, but nothing for Sunday.

How in the world can TWC even make any kind of call on Feb 7th nearly 10 days out, ridiculous.

They always do, but then the people that take TWC as gospel somehow know even less about weather than I do.

[nutleyblizzard]

18z GFS for the Super Bowl storm looked weak. Lee Goldberg must have seen it; he said the storm is no longer looking like a major event. Sure hope it trends stronger.

[skinsfan1177]

18z GFS for the Super Bowl storm looked weak. Lee Goldberg must have seen it; he said the storm is no longer looking like a major event. Sure hope it trends stronger.

I disagree with that statement their is no final solution yet and probably will not be until Thursday/Friday let's not get hung up on one run

[rb924119]

As promised:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Byod2Sk27yNYdlpabi13SldOSkU

Enjoy!!! Again, if you have any questions or comments, FEEL FREE to ask!!

[Guest]

We need some of this..............hopefully soon! Make sure you play it loud

https://youtu.be/WLyiHHEHylw

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