Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[sroc4]

Definite CAD signature there. Should be interesting to monitor

[Isotherm]

12Z GEFS today = carbon copy of what PHASE 8 COMPOSITE LOOKS LIKE...

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Tom, you've been all over the latter half of Feb, great stuff! Think we're beginning to see that NAM alteration on the ensembles in the LR. We're not leaving this month without something producing!

Thanks man. Hopefully it continues evolving as expected.

Even if we were waiting patiently for a typical downwelling event, the integral part of the whole process is resultant tropospheric conditions. The fact that we severely perturb the troposphere w/ upwelling wave activity following an upper vortex weakening is a fairly good place to be.

Recall 2010-11 is an example I was just thinking of w/ a very perturbed trop/lower strat but no SSW / near normal zonal winds up at 10hpa. Sometimes one doesn't need a full collapse in the upper realms.

Should be enlightening at the very least.

[amugs]

ISOTHERM FTW AND ARMANDO!!!!

HOLY CRAP he just posted this on another forum - sht is about to get real real soon BOOM!

[Frank_Wx]

The GFS and EURO continue showing a solid front-end thump of snow/ice before changing to rain. Let's see if we can get this system to keep trending colder.



Temps Tuesday morning are going to be in the teens to low 20's, so eroding the cold air away may not be an easy feat for this storm.

[docstox12]

The GFS and EURO continue showing a solid front-end thump of snow/ice before changing to rain. Let's see if we can get this system to keep trending colder.



Temps Tuesday morning are going to be in the teens to low 20's, so eroding the cold air away may not be an easy feat for this storm.

Yes, Frank, NWS high temp for me on Weds went from 51 to 46.Hope this continues!!!

[Armando Salvadore]

12Z GEFS today = carbon copy of what PHASE 8 COMPOSITE LOOKS LIKE...

" />

Tom, you've been all over the latter half of Feb, great stuff! Think we're beginning to see that NAM alteration on the ensembles in the LR. We're not leaving this month without something producing!

Thanks man. Hopefully it continues evolving as expected.

Even if we were waiting patiently for a typical downwelling event, the integral part of the whole process is resultant tropospheric conditions. The fact that we severely perturb the troposphere w/ upwelling wave activity following an upper vortex weakening is a fairly good place to be.

Recall 2010-11 is an example I was just thinking of w/ a very perturbed trop/lower strat but no SSW / near normal zonal winds up at 10hpa. Sometimes one doesn't need a full collapse in the upper realms.

Should be enlightening at the very least.

Hm, interesting analysis and comparison. Lower stratosphere column indicated by the 0z ECMWF indicates a split via 475K- 600K.



Courtesy of Amy Butler, here is your coupling between the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere right into the AO domain.



Pretty volatile month ahead, but this winter won't leave quietly. Ensembles still at war with MJO amplitude, and are likely to catch up over the next several days.

BY the way, early next week, i'd really like to see that energy weaken, which in a progressive pattern i could see it trending that way. Which, in turn, gives more of a frozen setup with classic CAD signature.

[dkodgis]

It is currently 40 degrees out at 3 pm and I see the temps are supposed to tumble to 18. Big drop then. Is this a trend because if it is, then it might be "cold enough to snow" as in this Sunday evening.

[amugs]

MJO Phase 8 - need to get there first and HOPE this is real not some 5 day BS sample - then we start to fight climo the longer it takes - sun angle, wave lengths elongate, SE ridge wants to fight, CP wants to do his lawn etc.
Models have been terrible with this forecast all winter

GEFS


EURO


We have a YUGE block over the top but too far N to hep us need that about 500-600 miles further S and we'd be rocking - oh well familiar to 11-12

[jmanley32]

Frank is it possible for a storm that comes in from the west to be all snow? I do not usually recall seeing that, and cutters can never be snow right? The system swinging up and offshore around 11th has a bit of my attention, it did trend closer to the EC further north than previous runs, long ways to go for that but I see you have those 2 events equal at this time.

[Math23x7]

The January QBO just came out and it was +14.92, the highest January QBO reading on record.

[Armando Salvadore]

Tom, question - I've seen some conflicting (and read) issues with MJO phase 8 amplitude for this upcoming mid month period. It figures, we get a -AO to develop, however, notice we see TPV fall into the Aleutians region. With this being said, could tropical forcing overcome this progressive look and fast pacific jet? I've realized that not always a P8 = Neutral ENSO P8 Composite (take last Feb for example), so where do we go with this? By the way, sheesh, ++QBO data is ridiculous.... It just screams in simplicity +AN for the rest of the month...

[amugs]

The January QBO just came out and it was +14.92, the highest January QBO reading on record.

Man of good news. Torches, reminds me a Juno, thaws hahah

[amugs]

Tom, question - I've seen some conflicting (and read) issues with MJO phase 8 amplitude for this upcoming mid month period. It figures, we get a -AO to develop, however, notice we see TPV fall into the Aleutians region. With this being said, could tropical forcing overcome this progressive look and fast pacific jet? I've realized that not always a P8 = Neutral ENSO P8 Composite (take last Feb for example), so where do we go with this? By the way, sheesh, ++QBO data is ridiculous.... It just screams in simplicity +AN for the rest of the month...

 A, the facts u bring up are very discincerting

[amugs]

Tom, question - I've seen some conflicting (and read) issues with MJO phase 8 amplitude for this upcoming mid month period. It figures, we get a -AO to develop, however, notice we see TPV fall into the Aleutians region. With this being said, could tropical forcing overcome this progressive look and fast pacific jet? I've realized that not always a P8 = Neutral ENSO P8 Composite (take last Feb for example), so where do we go with this? By the way, sheesh, ++QBO data is ridiculous.... It just screams in simplicity +AN for the rest of the month...

 A, the facts u bring up are very discincerting. The fact the sswe dumps the arctic air into the pac is going to lock the cold in the wrong region and enhance the block over Russia. This happened in Nov too. Not being a dd but just pointing out what you have posted. Raynham packed it in and if things do progress many more will

[Armando Salvadore]

Indeed Mugs, this is one of my concerns regarding that situation. However, i believe it comes down to the intensity (convection, divergence, wind) of the coherent MJO wave and can it overcome it? Well, i'm searching for the answer and we'll find out soon enough. Do we get just enough to have something produce with positive geo. heights building over polar regions for mid month? Well, like i said, we'll see.

[Snow88]

Winter might be over

What a horrible winter this has been for NYC, DC, Philly and Boston.

[Isotherm]

I am aware of the tweets you are referencing Armando. To be honest, sometimes I think people throw statements out there to obfuscate and simply play contrarian a bit. The upper divergence and concomitant convection propagation with this MJO disturbance appears legitimate to me on the chi200 plots. If the U signal continues propagating circumglobally, which it looks to do, the forcing pushes through the domains spaces of 1-3 as well which would induce subsequent retrogression of the mean pattern. Let us not forget the attendent rossby wave train induction which will force a perturbing of the PNJ and NATL jet. The wave 2 generation is also a legitimate precursor for further perturbating and lower split signal.

So I am currently at a loss insofar as what more one can say at this juncture. Models are notoriously poor, especially with handling coincident MJO strat signals so my thinking is simply to revisit in a few days once more accurate data is ingested. The weeklies I certainly couldn't care less about as they have been performing horrendously: they are really just an extrapolation of the prior EPS run.

With all that said, we could still revert to the same base pattern of this winter. That is always a possibility.

[skinsfan1177]

I keep hearing about solar and how it affects our weather here on the East Coast can anybody give me the correlations on why

[Snow88]

JB thinks winter is not over

[Guest]

To be fair JB always seems to predict cold and snow literally every few days.

[sroc4]

To be fair JB always seems to predict cold and snow literally every few days.

This staement is truth; however, when you listen to where he comes from he provides the science for which his bias leans. In this mornings video he was very open about his shortcomings thus far this year, and explained very thouroly his line of thinking as to why he belives we will still have winter weather leading into March, and also recognizes he may end up going down with his ship. That said others like Isotherm above, who honestly has been the most objective forecaster this winter, and who has been dead on all winter still believes similarly to JB. So I myself agree with alot that both of these two have said and why I am not quite ready to throw in the towel.

[Armando Salvadore]

I am aware of the tweets you are referencing Armando. To be honest, sometimes I think people throw statements out there to obfuscate and simply play contrarian a bit. The upper divergence and concomitant convection propagation with this MJO disturbance appears legitimate to me on the chi200 plots. If the U signal continues propagating circumglobally, which it looks to do, the forcing pushes through the domains spaces of 1-3 as well which would induce subsequent retrogression of the mean pattern. Let us not forget the attendent rossby wave train induction which will force a perturbing of the PNJ and NATL jet. The wave 2 generation is also a legitimate precursor for further perturbating and lower split signal.

So I am currently at a loss insofar as what more one can say at this juncture. Models are notoriously poor, especially with handling coincident MJO strat signals so my thinking is simply to revisit in a few days once more accurate data is ingested. The weeklies I certainly couldn't care less about as they have been performing horrendously: they are really just an extrapolation of the prior EPS run.

With all that said, we could still revert to the same base pattern of this winter. That is always a possibility.

Yep, thanks for that. I said the same thing, there is usually two sides that like to argue against the idea and brings about an enlightened debate. However, taking a look a NCEP and EURO RMM even with other globals, there is pretty significant agreement on a robust coherent wave entering into phase 8 with SD's reaching between 1-2. So far, EPV has been reduced significantly, but soon enough we'll see it catch onto the subsequent wave driving induced by the MJO as aforementioned. As you said, it can go either way, so we'll see where it goes. I for some reason don't believe we leave this month without a winter event, and one of relative significance in the very least!

[amugs]

I keep hearing about solar and how it affects our weather here on the East Coast can anybody give me the correlations on why

Skins - What has been happening and it i snot just our area but it has had a direct correlation to teh whole pattern but we seem to get teh brunt - when teh solar activity meaning sun spots and coronal holes are activity if facing teh earth they direct winds and particles that at 700km/s yes 700 kilometers per second towards Earth.
All of this heat and radioactive winds/particles which are natural - everyone has this connotation about radioactiveness- thanks media cause if you did not know we all are radioactive ! - and bombarded our atmosphere - this heat is usually found in the upper atmosphere around the poels since they are magnetic winds called geomagnetic - they are attracted by the N and S poles mostly North from what I have read. This give those beautiful auros in the skies over the high latitude area of the world - russia, Alaska, Canada, Iceland, Scandinavian Countries. So how does this screw up teh pattern. Not 100% but these particles interact within our atmosphere and cause a disruption to it. Again from reading up the suns winds/heat causes the cold air to sink up in the regions. When tis happens the NAO/AO regions which are located in this region go Positive as does the EPO - teh cold air settled over these regions.

If anyone with more expertise and information care to join in and help explain be my guest but this it to the extent of what I know.

[skinsfan1177]

I keep hearing about solar and how it affects our weather here on the East Coast can anybody give me the correlations on why

Skins - What has been happening and it i snot just our area but it has had a direct correlation to teh whole pattern but we seem to get teh brunt - when teh solar activity meaning sun spots and coronal holes are activity if facing teh earth they direct winds and particles that at 700km/s yes 700 kilometers per second towards Earth.
All of this heat and radioactive winds/particles which are natural - everyone has this connotation about radioactiveness- thanks media cause if you did not know we all are radioactive ! - and bombarded our atmosphere - this heat is usually found in the upper atmosphere around the poels since they are magnetic winds called geomagnetic - they are attracted by the N and S poles mostly North from what I have read. This give those beautiful auros in the skies over the high latitude area of the world - russia, Alaska, Canada, Iceland, Scandinavian Countries. So how does this screw up teh pattern. Not 100% but these particles interact within our atmosphere and cause a disruption to it.  Again from reading up the suns winds/heat causes the cold air to sink up in the regions. When tis happens the NAO/AO regions which are located in this region go Positive as does the EPO - teh cold air settled over these regions.

If anyone with more expertise and information care to join in and help explain be my guest but this it to the extent of what I know.

Thanks mugs great info

[amugs]

Coronal Hole directed at earth from Jan 30 - when it reached earth what happened to the great exciting pattern?? Sht the bed!

[amugs]

Northern lights ring - jesus teh entire High latitude region of earth - MADONNE!

[jake732]

If anyone gives a flying hoot, cmc shows a even next weekend ❄️

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