Re: Long Range Thread 13.0

[algae888]

Maddonne Frank what are PNA Ridge on today's Euro with the block over Greenland

[algae888]

WOW at the euro full latitude trough next weekend really digs it dumps the cold in the East with that look we may have to worry about suppression. Good to see it this far out probably is going to adjust

[algae888]

If the euro is correct the vortex could get stuck under that ridge for a while. definitely something we haven't seen yet this winter. I know mostly everybody is down on this winter but this looks promising Euro ukie and CMC are completely different than the GFS and the GEFS

[algae888]

From hour 120 throughout the run the vortex has nowhere to go it's stuck in Canada and eventually moves into the eastern half of the u.s.. late in the run the whole U.S.

[Frank_Wx]

Yes, EURO does look much better than the GFS!

[Armando Salvadore]

The 12Z GFS and 12z EURO is your classic 6-10 day battle! Model mayhem is the direct result of a large wave break over North America + post jet retraction (+MT). Given also the state of the MJO, there is much better support for the Euro's H5 as opposed to the GFS. Next weekend is a good period to watch! Beautiful true blocking -NAO showing up and its awesome to watch it unfold on the modeling!

[amugs]

The EURO has been better all along with the H5 set up as we have seen before in pattern changes. The block is at hour 120 not 200 so by Sun 12z we still see tjis then it is a gamer. 

Heights connect over the top from the pac PNA region to the NAO region sight that is great.

[SENJsnowman]

Yes, EURO does look much better than the GFS!

Is that 32 degree line a hard cut-off for the snow?

And doesn't the 540 line have some bearing on the snow?

Sorry for the basic questions...just trying to figure out if this should make the Shore's toes tingle or not...

[skinsfan1177]

Euro overnight showed a huge storm now I know its fantasy land. My question is for the greats on here do you think a big storm will take place? I always remember hearing that sometimes a big storm changes the pattern so maybe this is the case and then we go to spring. Thoughts

[Frank_Wx]

Euro showed a Roidzilla around the 12th. With blocking developing, the signal is there for a potent storm as long as the Pacific cooperates. Models keep waffling with how the western ridge behaves. Regardless, I think the 10th-15th has good potential. Just gotta wait and see.

[devsman]

Euro not only shows a big storm, it shows a monster with feet potential! Winds over 50 and temps in the 20's throughout. But not worried about temp profiles this far out. A storm that big will make its own cold. Hope the euro holds onto this storm.

[Frank_Wx]

Check the banter thread.

It looks like the EURO has the blocking placed in a way that keeps the SE Ridge muted. GFS shows the storm as a cutter. I much rather have the EURO on my side if I had to choose.

[rb924119]

Sorry for the lack of posting, but quite honestly, there's been nothing for me to add to the convo. Our long-range heavyweight duo of Tom and Armando have been holding their fort throughtout the last several days, with our fearless leaders providing their insight to the battle plans when appropriate. Only thing I have to say to last night's EURO Op is that with what had been said, this type of solution should not really surprise too many, as it follows the old line, "If you build it, they will come." (Anybody know the movie??? Lol) The question becomes if the Pacific can remain favorable, as again, has been stated repeatedly. That said, this is the very type of situation where I can envision models seeing this at this time frame, completely losing it in Day 7-4/3 and then bringing it back within 72 hours because of how chaotic and sensitive the upstream pattern is. In any event, at least it's some eye candy for all of us, and a great proof to Tom's earlier point "pattern recognition versus modelology, as has been the case all season..", where yet again human intuition could very well beat the models at their own game.

[Snow88]

Euro showed a Roidzilla around the 12th. With blocking developing, the signal is there for a potent storm as long as the Pacific cooperates. Models keep waffling with how the western ridge behaves. Regardless, I think the 10th-15th has good potential. Just gotta wait and see.

Not sure if it did show a Roidzilla. Anything higher than that? lol

[sroc4]

So for those of you who haven't actually seen the run its self I will post it for you.  It is one of the most epic runs one will ever witness for a March snow storm evolution.  If it were to come to fruition all those failing grades in the other thread would likely need to be curved in a serious way.  

So feast your eyes on it now because in a little over 4 hours the next euro run comes out and it will be totally different.  

500mb first; then surface...And I will post the snow map here as well so its all in one spot.....enjoy!





















DO NOT ASK IF THIS CAN HAPPEN! The answer is yes it can, but so can pretty much everything else on the table so just gaze in wonder and remain cautiously optimistic that something comes together before we officially close the book on winter 2016/2017.

[sroc4]

Sorry for the lack of posting, but quite honestly, there's been nothing for me to add to the convo. Our long-range heavyweight duo of Tom and Armando have been holding their fort throughtout the last several days, with our fearless leaders providing their insight to the battle plans when appropriate. Only thing I have to say to last night's EURO Op is that with what had been said, this type of solution should not really surprise too many, as it follows the old line, "If you build it, they will come." (Anybody know the movie??? Lol) The question becomes if the Pacific can remain favorable, as again, has been stated repeatedly. That said, this is the very type of situation where I can envision models seeing this at this time frame, completely losing it in Day 7-4/3 and then bringing it back within 72 hours because of how chaotic and sensitive the upstream pattern is. In any event, at least it's some eye candy for all of us, and a great proof to Tom's earlier point "pattern recognition versus modelology, as has been the case all season..", where yet again human intuition could very well beat the models at their own game.

Please Ray. Field of Dreams!! Top 5 of all time in my book

[Frank_Wx]

Actually Scott I put that thread up to grade Met winter. The contest was also just until March 1st.

[Armando Salvadore]

Dam, hell of a run of the EURO. Subtle differences from the 0z GFS and Euro, but it comes down to the blocking scheme over the northern atlantic. GFS is more east based as opposed to the Euro which reflects much more of a west based. The position of the ridge axis would dictate the type of flow over N.A. Regardless, both models SHOW the -NAO for what its worth (thanks to -AAM/MJO tag team + wave break) and thus giving us a period to watch that has been discussed several times before (@Rb - lol thanks, i try my best, but no where near Tom!). Regarding the pacific, if you look at H5, both the EURO and GFS isn't meridonial, but rather it's the north atlantic blocking that compensates. A brief spike of the PNA would help, but this time it may not have to be relied on that ridge. EPS meanwhile, is zonal, but it's a wave that ejects from PJ and "squeezes" between the height field timing with the TPV deliverance of the cold air, which also is key.

[Armando Salvadore]

And the 12z EURO tooketh... haha. Yea, basically a big flip from 0z. Keeps the TPV in the west, which allows heights to rise out ahead. Squashes any hope for a western ridge, but i should say that volatility is high and pacific evolution is crazy. Looks like the mid month warmup will occur.

[Isotherm]

I think I've diagnosed the causative mechanism of the extreme model variance. It's been awhile since we've seen such variance in the sub D8 period. It all emanates back to the Rossby wave break evolution in the North Pacific. We want the mid level ridge to cut-off from the mean flow such that jet is permitted to cut underneath the block in the NPAC. Last night's 00z euro cut-off the ridge, which enabled heights to lower directly underneath, thereby inducing downstream geopotential height rises over the Western US. The 12z euro keeps the mid level ridge connected to the mean flow, forcing a deeper trough in the West. This is a time at which the faster than normal Pacific jet would be helpful. Drive the flow through the wall of heights in order to adequately displace the Rossby wave cut-off block, thereby pumping the Western US heights, and subsequent further downstream results. The evolution of this wave break goes haywire post D3, so I'd expect model variance on this issue for another 1-2 days probably.

[Isotherm]

And the 12z EURO tooketh... haha. Yea, basically a big flip from 0z. Keeps the TPV in the west, which allows heights to rise out ahead. Squashes any hope for a western ridge, but i should say that volatility is high and pacific evolution is crazy. Looks like the mid month warmup will occur.

Armando - see my latest post; I think I know what the issue is.

[SoulSingMG]

Anyone see the Euro ENS?

[algae888]

Anyone see the Euro ENS?

Yes i did soul. They actually improved from last night's run. Big difference from today's operational. Nobody should get their hopes up from seeing three feet of snow but a couple of decent events are still on the table.

[SoulSingMG]

Anyone see the Euro ENS?

Yes i did soul. They actually improved from last night's run. Big difference from today's operational. Nobody should get their hopes up from seeing three feet of snow but a couple of decent events are still on the table.

Agreed. I do have a feeling this winter of extremes could go out with an extreme bang though. We'll see!

[Armando Salvadore]

I think I've diagnosed the causative mechanism of the extreme model variance. It's been awhile since we've seen such variance in the sub D8 period. It all emanates back to the Rossby wave break evolution in the North Pacific. We want the mid level ridge to cut-off from the mean flow such that jet is permitted to cut underneath the block in the NPAC. Last night's 00z euro cut-off the ridge, which enabled heights to lower directly underneath, thereby inducing downstream geopotential height rises over the Western US. The 12z euro keeps the mid level ridge connected to the mean flow, forcing a deeper trough in the West. This is a time at which the faster than normal Pacific jet would be helpful. Drive the flow through the wall of heights in order to adequately displace the Rossby wave cut-off block, thereby pumping the Western US heights, and subsequent further downstream results. The evolution of this wave break goes haywire post D3, so I'd expect model variance on this issue for another 1-2 days probably.

Dam good analysis/diagnosis Tom! Check out the 0z CMC, just using it as a reference, but it reflects your idea. Notice the NPAC ridge cuts off from mean flow, sets up a rex block a bit, but pumps a downstream ridge just at the right time. The blocking signal could not be stronger, but support is anomalous for it anyway. This could work.

[Snow88]

0z runs were in the right direction

Lets see the 12z runs

[Snow88]

12z GFS is coming in with better blocking

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