Possible Snowstorm Thursday, February 9th

Oh derr I see why the north has more cuz they get snow tomorrow, duhhh lol

jmanley32 wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

amugs wrote:

Ahh. Not sure what all the sad posts are about for this run/the coast but this shows 6-12 for nyc metro ;-)

Get that green in here haha, thats a prettier picture than the wxbell snowmap.  Wxbell shows about 6 for city and inland about 30 miles or so b4 it ups.

Some greens WOULD be nice lol... 17" on that run over my hometown in New Hampshire!

nam para!

do not like look of 4km so much, front end rain, but only goes to 60 hr, heaviest looks to be further north. but look at how intensie the precip is around us, its probably not actually liquid.

Look at this this is badonkers! Supercell activity def thundersnow!! These levels 1+ in summer time are a concern for very severe storms.



This will be a disasterous commute, the heart of this storm as shown right now falls on rush hour. NO not everyone can work from home or has a choice to take off.

You know what if extrapolated out, looking at the precip totals to the west that are coming in and the system is still intensifying it could be a godzilla. There is also 40mph winds with this thing, thats not gusts.

GFS is no Nam through 48 hours

Snow88 wrote:GFS is no Nam through 48 hours

nws already said discounting gfs. this go b sr models ftw!

GFS is further south with the low and weak

GFS, nada wow

Tomorrow should be interesting.

Listen, the ensembles for both the GFS and EURO suites have been more impressive than the OPs. Not to mention short range guidance such as NAM and SREF are bullish. Not to mention the energy won't be best sampled until Wednesday 12z. I'm thinking positive thoughts st the moment that this will be a Mothrazilla

Still disagreements between NAM, GFS, CMC, Euro that need to be ironed out. Plus as Frank said, the ensembles are NW of the OP runs regarding their mean, so that raises a flag. Plus, we really need proper "in house" sampling because these waves are rough to nail down. Depends on boundary, where it sets up, and how amplified tomorrow's system is because it sets us up for the next event. We'll get (hopefully), better agreement come tomorrow 0z.

Within 60 hours and Nam and GFS are night and day. Sounds about right. Nam has outperformed Gfs a few times this year in SR. Hopefully it happens again.

Lee Goldberg: 2-5/slushy few inches in NYC is "best bet"...

CMC is also a swing and a miss, so its def SR versus LR models. Next 48 hrs will be quite something.

NAM 3km is nuts, by hr 60 it looks like this and areas around NYC already have 2-4 inches! just from hrs 57(onset for most)-60! Thats nuts.

UKMET COMES IN AS THE NAM'S TWIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!

rb924119 wrote:UKMET COMES IN AS THE NAM'S TWIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That's all I needed to see tonight. GAME ON.

rb924119 wrote:UKMET COMES IN AS THE NAM'S TWIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!

does wxbell have maps for ukmet? ive never seen them listed.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:UKMET COMES IN AS THE NAM'S TWIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!

does wxbell have maps for ukmet? ive never seen them listed.

I don't believe so. You can view it here:

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

UKMET verbatim would be almost identical to the NAM, except a little drier. 850hPa closed low goes right over ACY.

GEFS FUGLY and UGLY




Good night all!!

Euro

nam holds serve...


para gfs 0z..

rgem looks like a nice hit. 998mb lp va/nc border...

my nws point and click forecast. 3-7"...
Wednesday Night
Rain likely before 1am, then snow. Low around 32. Northwest wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow, mainly before 1pm. Temperature falling to around 28 by 5pm. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

mt holly nws disco...
*Potential for the heaviest snowfall of the season so far for
the I95 and I78 corridors 05z-21z Thursday**
Hazards: None yet but contemplated a watch. But lack of model
consensus/forecaster confidence resulted in waiting another
forecast period before reconsidering a WATCH for the period 05z
/Thursday-21z Thursday. Timing of the snow/temperatures dropping
below freezing with the Thursday morning commute argues for
probable widespread Thursday morning delays, even if this not a
5 to 7 inch 12 hour warning event.
Thursday...Snow north and rain south changing to snow.  Amounts
greatest I-78 region north and probably the largest snowfall of the
winter so far in parts of eastern Pa and northern NJ. cold. Snowfall
rates of an inch an hour possible during the morning in the
I78-180 region. As for the ending time...uncertainty. For now we
say snow ends south midday. Elsewhere in the north snow tapers
to flurries anytime early afternoon to sunset. Wind turns north
northwest and gusts 20-30 mph in the afternoon. Temperatures
steady or falling from 7am readings (calendar day highs at 1201AM).

6z gfs on board...