Long Range Thread 14.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Grselig on Mon Mar 20, 2017 2:51 pm

docstox12 wrote:
Grselig wrote:And there is nothing worse than spending a Saturday afternoon carefully cutting my lawn in 95 degree weather only for the satisfaction of it looking nice, fighting the brown spots and spending money on water to keep it green!!  At least you get paid Mikey!!  (although for your sake, I hope you make  lots of money.)  Or when its drought time, watching my efforts burn to brown.    I'd rather just shovel the pure cold white stuff

Grselig, I did all of that 35 years in my old home in Mahwah NJ.Now,in a newer house in Monroe NY, I have 1 acre, sprinkler system, a lawn service and a great guy like Mikey P to do my cutting.I sit outside having a cigar and a glass of wine watching him cut,LOL.At age 66, I'm done with that lawn stuff,LOL.My social security pays for this stuff.

To jimmy's point, a landscaping thread would be cool.

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by TheAresian on Mon Mar 20, 2017 4:20 pm

Does anybody see an ounce of hope or is winter pretty much cooked after Wednesday?
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Math23x7 on Mon Mar 20, 2017 8:42 pm

Meteorologist Dave Tolleris (DT) of wxrisk.com yesterday:

ITS OVER FOLKS.... the threat of **** ACCUMULATING SNOW*** and/ or any moderate- significant -or major winter storm for the most of CONUS EAST of the Mississippi river ...is gone. The One exception are the mountains of New England and / or the Upper Great Lakes.

2. I am not talking about the end of cold. Obviously there will continue to cold chilly days over the eastern CONUS all the way into April ...and over the Great Lakes and New England ...probably into early may. This is always the case. This post is about *** Accumulating snow fall.***

3. the fact that a weather model may come out at point over 5 days... 7 days... 13 days or 20 days and show a weather map which looks like a potential East Coast or Ohio Valley snowstorm ...doesn't mean anything. All weather models even the European occasionally show something which turns out not to be true. Winter storms occur because the overall pattern supports or favors their development -- NOT because the weather models says so.

The fact is that the overall pattern is about to undergo a significant change which will a END the threat of significant winter weather in terms of snowfall over the 80-90% of the eastern half the U.S.

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by docstox12 on Tue Mar 21, 2017 6:15 am

Math23x7 wrote:Meteorologist Dave Tolleris (DT) of wxrisk.com yesterday:

ITS OVER FOLKS.... the threat of **** ACCUMULATING SNOW*** and/ or any moderate- significant -or major winter storm for the most of CONUS EAST of the Mississippi river ...is gone. The One exception are the mountains of New England and / or the Upper Great Lakes.

2. I am not talking about the end of cold. Obviously there will continue to cold chilly days over the eastern CONUS all the way into April ...and over the Great Lakes and New England ...probably into early may. This is always the case. This post is about *** Accumulating snow fall.***

3. the fact that a weather model may come out at point over 5 days... 7 days... 13 days or 20 days and show a weather map which looks like a potential East Coast or Ohio Valley snowstorm ...doesn't mean anything. All weather models even the European occasionally show something which turns out not to be true. Winter storms occur because the overall pattern supports or favors their development -- NOT because the weather models says so.

The fact is that the overall pattern is about to undergo a significant change which will a END the threat of significant winter weather in terms of snowfall over the 80-90% of the eastern half the U.S.

WHOA Nellie there Mike.NWS still has me for some snow in the forecast this weekend.Still not totally giving up yet.It may not be significant but it is snow.
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by rb924119 on Tue Mar 21, 2017 8:47 am

I'm still not writing off this weekend for one last hoorah in March, and then early April may offer a last gasp before we flip the switch and head straight for summer. In fact, I think models have trended a bit more favorably in the last couple of runs. Very difficult for modeling to handle cutoff lows.

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by algae888 on Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:41 am

rb924119 wrote:I'm still not writing off this weekend for one last hoorah in March, and then early April may offer a last gasp before we flip the switch and head straight for summer. In fact, I think models have trended a bit more favorably in the last couple of runs. Very difficult for modeling to handle cutoff lows.
I agree RB and Doc. DT and others wrote off winter in the middle of February and we've had our best stretch since then. Plus it's not rocket science to say that New York City will not receive any more snow this year as climo is very much against us. We still have cold air on our side of the globe so anything timed just right could produce snow late March into early April obviously favors interior areas.
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:35 am

When you see Canada void of any significant cold in the month of March at the 500mb level, that normally translates to temps at or above normal for our area. I hate to say this, but I think we've seen the last of accumulating snow for our area this year.




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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:39 am

EPS agree...warmth coming.


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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by rb924119 on Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:53 am

Frank_Wx wrote:EPS agree...warmth coming.


Not as warm as it looks though, Frank. That's a sneaky cold high there in eastern Canada.

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:59 am

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:EPS agree...warmth coming.


Not as warm as it looks though, Frank. That's a sneaky cold high there in eastern Canada.

Meh...

The overall pattern to me looks crummy.


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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by rb924119 on Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:07 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:EPS agree...warmth coming.


Not as warm as it looks though, Frank. That's a sneaky cold high there in eastern Canada.

Meh...

The overall pattern to me looks crummy.


On that you will find no disagreement from this peanut gallery haha I think this first low in the series is the only shot for anything wintry until the front week of April, at which point by mid-month we flip right to summer. I just think this front-running low is going to end up further south than where it is currently progged. The 50/50 low is looking better, the antecedent ridging behind systems of interest this season has seemingly trended stronger within 96-72 hours of events, and based on where this low is coming ashore on the west coast, I can see this yielding a sneaky threat. Also remember, the EURO showed that ridiculous snowfall map for Stella at approximately the same lead time as it did the other day for this weekend, but then lost it entirely until the lead time mentioned above. Could we be seeing the same thing happening here now? It's possible, in my opinion, so I'm just watching quietly from the sidelines for now haha I'll wait until late-week to either celebrate or move on lmao

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Snow88 on Tue Mar 21, 2017 1:09 pm

April starts off cold on the GFS with maybe some snow, especially for the interior.
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Mar 21, 2017 3:22 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:When you see Canada void of any significant cold in the month of March at the 500mb level, that normally translates to temps at or above normal for our area. I hate to say this, but I think we've seen the last of accumulating snow for our area this year.



Hope your trip was good, thats fine with me its so nice out, almost all street blocking snow is gone bring spring. I hear will be interesting severe wx/hurricane season so I will def start a thread on that in may.
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by mikeypizano on Tue Mar 21, 2017 3:23 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:When you see Canada void of any significant cold in the month of March at the 500mb level, that normally translates to temps at or above normal for our area. I hate to say this, but I think we've seen the last of accumulating snow for our area this year.



Hope your trip was good, thats fine with me its so nice out, almost all street blocking snow is gone bring spring.  I hear will be interesting severe wx/hurricane season so I will def start a thread on that in may.

Considering the storms and tornado here in FEB, I think it will be a wild summer!
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by frank 638 on Wed Mar 22, 2017 4:01 pm

I think we are heading into a rainy raw and chilly conditions yuck .starting from sun till wed

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:09 am

Goodbye, winter.


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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by mikeypizano on Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:24 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Goodbye, winter.


Hello spring! Very Happy
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by sroc4 on Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:08 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Goodbye, winter.


This set up screams back door cold fronts and a cold NE with periods of moderation

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by rb924119 on Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:21 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Goodbye, winter.


This set up screams back door cold fronts and a cold NE with periods of moderation

Agree, Scott! The Northeast is not going to be warm with this pattern; west of the Appalachian chain will be, but we'll be stuck in chilly, dreary conditions.

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by TheAresian on Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:28 pm

Highs in the 50s,lows in the 30s and mostly rain as opposed to snow is what is expected this time of year so that's what I'll use as a baseline. Based on what I'm seeing forecasted, I'd say the next 7-10 days around here will be pretty close to normal.
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by amugs on Fri Mar 31, 2017 8:35 pm

Could be very interesting in this time frame for the HV

GEFS


EPS

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by rb924119 on Fri Mar 31, 2017 8:57 pm

amugs wrote:Could be very interesting in this time frame for the HV

GEFS


EPS

Agree mugs, although I haven't looked too closely. Right now it seems like it its just looking like a very potent cold front with the potential for some sort of slantwise convection/CSI event. Whether this ends up as an April version of the November 19th snow event at the start of this season remains to be seen. I might do some further investigating of this period tomorrow afternoon and/or Sunday, because it definitely has one of my eyebrows raised lmao

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by syosnow94 on Fri Mar 31, 2017 8:58 pm

amugs wrote:Could be very interesting in this time frame for the HV

GEFS


EPS

Just blowing off steam here, but Mugs and rb it's enough!!  We would have 200" every time it "looks" interesting.  and yes I know you said Hudson valley.
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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by rb924119 on Fri Mar 31, 2017 9:31 pm

Ripped from my Facebook:

Expect slow drying and clearing through the day tomorrow for most areas. with considerable clearing overnight into Sunday morning. Sunday will feature much quieter, nicer, and seasonably cool weather, with temperatures generally in the 40s and 50s. Monday will again feature partial sunshine, mainly in the morning, before clouds begin working in ahead of our next system. Highs will again be seasonably cool and very similar to Sunday's. Monday night, showers will again return to the area, and last through much of Tuesday. Tuesday's temperatures will be quite diverse across the forecast area, as a warm front will essentially split it in half. Widespread temperatures between 60-70° are expected, with some areas even exceeding 70° for areas in and around D.C., Baltimore, Philly, Harrisburg, and Trenton. Further north, temperatures will likely struggle to breach 50°, and even remain locked in the 40s for areas such as New York City, Scranton, Binghamton, Albany, Danbury, Providence, and Red Sox Suck, with the higher terrain of south-central New England likely to not even break 40°. Clearing will take place Tuesday night and lead to a beautiful Wednesday and Thursday weather-wise, although again temperatures will be a seasonably cool (40s, 50s and 60s from north to south).

As we look to end next week, there is yet ANOTHER system that will be spreading inclement weather across our region. This one, however, has me intrigued for the potential of more widespread wintry weather (more than what this weekend's system brought, especially for portions of New York and Pennsylvania). Right now, it is looking like more of a potent cold front with gusty conditions and squalls (some of those snow for the higher terrain) behind it. However, based on the larger pattern, I would not be surprised to see this system trend colder, and am expecting that to occur to some degree based on the current projections. Now, I am not saying a full-blown snow and ice storm is going to occur, but what I AM saying is that I could see some form of accumulating wintry weather impact more of the interior of the forecast area than this current one. Updates will come as necessary for this, so stay tuned.


I actually am kind of really starting to like the look of this after some quick analysis. Gonna keep a watchful eye on it for sure.

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Re: Long Range Thread 14.0

Post by Math23x7 on Sun Apr 02, 2017 12:54 pm

I hate to say this but after the mild temperatures early next week, I think we endure a week and a half of more chilly, raw, damp temperatures (~April 13th-23rd). After that stretch, I think we blowtorch into the 70s and 80s. And yes, this means the weather on Easter this year will likely be crap.

And as I alluded to on OTI, since there were 298 replies on this thread and since 298 ≡ 23 (mod 25), once the next post is made, this one one be forgotten (unless of course it gets quoted).

Anyway, not looking forward to Easter this year unfortunately as it would not surprise me if it is colder than last Christmas (which had a high/low of 50/36). And the last two Easters were both cooler than their preceding Christmases (62/44 on 12/25/14, 61/42 on 4/5/15; 66/57 on 12/25/15, 55/43 on 3/27/16).

JB pointed out in the Saturday Summary video that about two weeks from, another east coast trough will probably come through around that time.

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