Tracking Hurricane Irma

Making the north turn now at hr 174...884mb

Pressure in the 870's has to have corresponding winds of around 200-215mph

Satellite estimates of Haiyan from three years ago were pressures 872 I believe with estimated sustained 215 gusts to 240

rb924119 wrote:Satellite estimates of Haiyan from three years ago were pressures 872 I believe with estimated sustained 215 gusts to 240

That's crazy haha

Looks to be headed for NC at hr 192

Good god hi res 874mb 168 hrs!!!!

Glancing blow, the main circulation is over water. You're gonna have a sub 925 storm in the Delmarva......AGAIN

Ok 200mph anywhere on ec b gone.

Truly on the verge of a panic attack. If this came to fruition, where would we even go?

Yeah, center goes around NC, hits Delmarva

For the first time in my entire life, and this is saying something believe me, I'm getting SCARED. I wasn't scared for Sandy, but I'm getting scared with this one.

Maddone!

Rb, with this run verbatim what winds can we expect in Bing and LI?

That's 24 hours of hurricane force winds in many areas

Keep in mind that until a couple of days before Sandy hit, the GFS had it going OTS. Here, it is of course taking Irma into the US East coast. The ECMWF OP and EPS seem to favor more towards OTS than US hit. Still need time to watch though.

And my area verbatim. Rb scared yes that def says St.

aiannone wrote:Rb, with this run verbatim what winds can we expect in Bing and LI?

I would say gusts 70-80 knots would be reasonable guesses for both as max speeds. Sustained you're probably looking 35-50-ish

Rb what about the jersey shore ocean county area

If you want the full force you want a tick north. And tbh if you take a compromise between the euro and gfs you'd get just that. Euro says ridge is weak and it gets to escape just in time and gfs says it's strong as hell and can barely let it come up the coast so it goes in down south of us. So a compromise would be our neck of the woods

rb924119 wrote:For the first time in my entire life, and this is saying something believe me, I'm getting SCARED. I wasn't scared for Sandy, but I'm getting scared with this one.

please explain why this is scaring you....if it looks to make landfall south of us... not being sarcastic..just need to understand..are we on the bad side of the storm that would give us surge and wind?

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:For the first time in my entire life, and this is saying something believe me, I'm getting SCARED. I wasn't scared for Sandy, but I'm getting scared with this one.

please explain why this is scaring you....if it looks to make landfall south of us...

Its Definetly scary to me as well storm surge, hurricane force winds etc...

track17 wrote:Rb what about the jersey shore ocean county area

Sustained probably closer 45-65/50-70 gusts as high 90 knots probably.

This to everybody (not only you, Track, so don't feel I'm singling anybody out), let's try to refrain from "in my backyard" questions right now. We are still a long way out, so it could all be for naught, and there's no use in stressing out over details when we don't even have the setup pinned down yet. Just like a snowstorm, details like that don't matter right now. What matters is that the threat of a highly impactful event is still on the table of possibilities, and the details will shake themselves out as we get closer.

Ok that is fine and that makes me feel good rb much weaker then I expected thank god

Right was just curious so msin impacts don't spread all way up here unless it was a hit say in Jersey. And yes mom the eastern side is worse either winds.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:For the first time in my entire life, and this is saying something believe me, I'm getting SCARED. I wasn't scared for Sandy, but I'm getting scared with this one.

please explain why this is scaring you....if it looks to make landfall south of us... not being sarcastic..just need to understand..are we on the bad side of the storm that would give us surge and wind?

Models don't handle intensity forecasts very well; they tend to significantly underestimate. Sandy, FOR EXAMPLE ONLY, was progged as about 965mb or 970mb if I remember correctly. Right before landfall it was 939mb. This is progged currently to be sub 920mb at landfall..........that's close to a Category 4 hurricane, approximately, with regard to pressure verbatim.