Tracking Hurricane Irma

Right was just curious so msin impacts don't spread all way up here unless it was a hit say in Jersey. And yes mom the eastern side is worse either winds.

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:For the first time in my entire life, and this is saying something believe me, I'm getting SCARED. I wasn't scared for Sandy, but I'm getting scared with this one.

please explain why this is scaring you....if it looks to make landfall south of us... not being sarcastic..just need to understand..are we on the bad side of the storm that would give us surge and wind?

Models don't handle intensity forecasts very well; they tend to significantly underestimate. Sandy, FOR EXAMPLE ONLY, was progged as about 965mb or 970mb if I remember correctly. Right before landfall it was 939mb. This is progged currently to be sub 920mb at landfall..........that's close to a Category 4 hurricane, approximately, with regard to pressure verbatim.

Rb do u think a 874mb cat 5 is even possible? I mean I've never even seen that at 384 hrs let alone only 7 to 8 days out.

skinsfan1177 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:For the first time in my entire life, and this is saying something believe me, I'm getting SCARED. I wasn't scared for Sandy, but I'm getting scared with this one.

please explain why this is scaring you....if it looks to make landfall south of us...

Its Definetly scary to me as well storm surge, hurricane force winds etc...

So I understand and I think I did before I asked..just wanted to make sure...we would still be in the cone of danger for wind and surge even if it makes landfall in say the delmarva area....adn I was scared for Sandy...and sandy was not a rain or very high wind duration storm..I remember commenting all day about there being not so much rain or wind..it was when everything hit the fan at 10 pm andthe surge was happening..

jmanley32 wrote:Right was just curious so msin impacts don't spread all way up here unless it was a hit say in Jersey. And yes mom the eastern side is worse either winds.

Our whole region is pretty much in the bullseye, Jman, though the core of strongest winds does miss JUST south........on this run. As Alex said, take a blend of the globals, and we got some serious issues.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Right was just curious so msin impacts don't spread all way up here unless it was a hit say in Jersey. And yes mom the eastern side is worse either winds.

Our whole region is pretty much in the bullseye, Jman, though the core of strongest winds does miss JUST south........on this run. As Alex said, take a blend of the globals, and we got some serious issues.

ok...i understand...

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Right was just curious so msin impacts don't spread all way up here unless it was a hit say in Jersey. And yes mom the eastern side is worse either winds.

Our whole region is pretty much in the bullseye, Jman, though the core of strongest winds does miss JUST south........on this run. As Alex said, take a blend of the globals, and we got some serious issues.

I know I'm exilerated and scared at same time. I think I'd actually board my windows screw my landlord if he says no if winds over 100 mph hit.

So is ur new thinking a ec hit in short? What are chances ots? It's kinda confusing as euro does have ensembles ots. But appears most models agree the gfs. Even euro operational almost.

jmanley32 wrote:Rb do u think a 874mb cat 5 is even possible? I mean I've never even seen that at 384 hrs let alone only 7 to  8 days out.

Look up Super Typhoon Haiyan from 2014 I believe it was (Mike feel free to correct me lol) had pressures that low. Beat Super Typhoon Tip by like six or eight mb for the record of lowest pressure ever observed. So it's certainly possible, we've seen it in our lifetimes, but I didn't think it would be IN THE ATLANTIC. That would be truly amazing.

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Rb do u think a 874mb cat 5 is even possible? I mean I've never even seen that at 384 hrs let alone only 7 to  8 days out.

Look up Super Typhoon Haiyan from 2014 I believe it was (Mike feel free to correct me lol) had pressures that low. Beat Super Typhoon Tip by like six or eight mb for the record of lowest pressure ever observed. So it's certainly possible, we've seen it in our lifetimes, but I didn't think it would be IN THE ATLANTIC. That would be truly amazing.

that's what I meant in Atlantic and so dangerously close to conus. Can u imagine the ocean on approach even omg

Oh rb so u think it could actually push lower than sub 900 wow. Yikes.

This will be my last post because I have to go to work early in the morning, but to put that type of central in perspective:

Mean sea level pressure averages around 1000mb. A storm with a minimum central pressure of 874mb would have approximately 13% of the mass of the entire atmospheric column above it removed from its core. That's amazing.

Something to think about as we watch and wait. A breakdown of the hurricane categories and their practical effects on the areas they hit.

https://www.unc.edu/~rowlett/units/scales/saffir.html

I believe this is the new hurricane model holy mother

How wide is storm ..my husband just asked?

weatherwatchermom wrote:How wide is storm ..my husband just asked?

Approximately 69 miles between lines of longitude and latitude...

Radz wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:How wide is storm ..my husband just asked?

Approximately 69 miles between lines of longitude and latitude...

Thats now, when it grows its go be hundreds of miles wide. If models are right.

check this out, a def trend west. press play.

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=11&year=2017&title=11

As we head into the 0Z model suite, here is what meteorologist Dave Tolleris (DT) of wxrisk.com says regarding Irma.  

Remember, if you reply to this, keep two rules in mind from Frank regarding the forum:

#1 Be respectful to one another. If you disagree with someone, debate in a professional manner. Constructive criticism is meant to help you get better, remember that! Attack the idea, not the poster

#3 No bashing of professional Meteorologists or government agencies. This job is not easy

Say what you want about DT, his insight is pretty good here:

Math, with all due and respect you seem bias towards Irma going out to sea.(maybe "wishcasting") I just don't see how anyone can make assumptions saying this is going to do something 10-15 days out.

0z GFS running

Out to 24.......... This will be interesting

EnyapWeather wrote:Math,  with all due and respect you seem bias towards Irma going out to sea.(maybe "wishcasting") I just don't see how anyone can make assumptions saying this is going to do something 10-15 days out.

we are really more in the 8-10 day range at most unless a big slowdown, i dont think its going out 15 days.

Hr 60 is so far identical as for placement of irma, slightly weaker.

GFS Out to 48 hours

10 mb weaker and in the same position as 18z

Hr 84 bit forther south 936mb, really flirting with north islands.

clearly a bit south this run through 126

aiannone wrote:clearly a bit south this run through 126

how big a change in track will that cause? seems trough is digging deeper too.