Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

by **rb924119** Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:09 pm

aiannone wrote:Bahamas slammed by Irma, then Jose lol

COULD YOU IMAGINE??? It's not meant to be funny, but we'd have to legitimately redraw maps probably.

by **rb924119** Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:10 pm

Of all of the GFS Op runs I have ever seen, this is by far the craziest, most outrageous, unbelievably incredible run of all my time.

by track17 Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:14 pm

Can someone post the cmc you guys are talking about

by **rb924119** Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:15 pm

track17 wrote:Can someone post the cmc you guys are talking about

It's already posted, track - look back a few posts Smile

by track17 Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:18 pm

I can't find it for some reason. See the others but not that one. No problem though

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:19 pm

enjoy the day fella's gonna go out and enjoy what time we have left of my shangra la if those crazy runs actually verify...I mean what do you thing the people at NHC are saying at this time looking at those??????

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:20 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Rb u must have faster cmc still at 162. Gfs also effects area.

track I think this the one you are looking for

by **rb924119** Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:22 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:enjoy the day fella's gonna go out and enjoy what time we have left of my shangra la if those crazy runs actually verify...I mean what do you thing the people at NHC are saying at this time looking at those??????

Probably the exact same thing we are ahaha

by track17 Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:23 pm

Oh did not realize that was the cmc because it said gem. Ok i was real worried but that is something the jersey shore can handle thank god

by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:31 pm

Actually track a frame before it's pretty serious. That's when cmc also known as gem weakens.

by track17 Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:34 pm

I did not see any purple over the jersey shore though or am I missing something. Correct me if I am wrong.

by **aiannone** Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:38 pm

GEFS shifted a bit east.

by **rb924119** Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:42 pm

track17 wrote:I did not see any purple over the jersey shore though or am I missing something. Correct me if I am wrong.

Here track, this is the frame before:

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 22 Screen19

by track17 Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:44 pm

Thanks rb I don't want to sound like a jerk but that looks like something we have seen many times. So not really too concerned

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:54 pm

After looking at the 12z suite thus far, I've noticed one big difference in the upper levels. The ridge over the northern US is much weaker which allows Irma to come straight north after making landfall. CMC shows what could happen in a setup like that. GFS shows it too, but was too far west to have significant impacts for our area. If the EURO shows the same H5 levels, we're back in the game folks.

by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:58 pm

aiannone wrote:GEFS shifted a bit east.

of course lol then more till pulls a cmc. Euro started.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:00 pm

GEFS

by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:01 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:After looking at the 12z suite thus far, I've noticed one big difference in the upper levels. The ridge over the northern US is much weaker which allows Irma to come straight north after making landfall. CMC shows what could happen in a setup like that. GFS shows it too, but was too far west to have significant impacts for our area. If the EURO shows the same H5 levels, we're back in the game folks.

both gfs and cmc show pretty strong noreaster type weather from Irma.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:01 pm

48 foot waves into Miami

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 22 Us_model-en-087-0_modusa_2017090412_150_8969_470.png.9b220dbb0034fe5b6dc6b11181d7df6c

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 22 Us_model-en-087-0_modusa_2017090412_150_8969_470.png.9b220dbb0034fe5b6dc6b11181d7df6c

by **rb924119** Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:02 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:GEFS

Is that a free site, Frank?

by **rb924119** Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:03 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:48 foot waves into Miami

Is this a free site? aha I like these graphics lmao But yeah, Miami would be gone if the GFS verified verbatim.

by **aiannone** Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:03 pm

ridge looks to extend a little less south this run, a tad weaker. trough maybe a bit faster

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:07 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:GEFS

Is that a free site, Frank?

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:48 foot waves into Miami

Is this a free site? aha I like these graphics lmao But yeah, Miami would be gone if the GFS verified verbatim.

Yes. Both free.

http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL11

Also, 12z EURO running now

by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:08 pm

Euro looks identical some small changes at 500mb

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:08 pm

Free euro site

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/623-w-130-n/sea-level-pressure/20170904-2100z.html

by **jmanley32** Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:10 pm

Rb Jose in Fantasyland but good grief!!!

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Sep 04, 2017 2:14 pm

Track and Jman please banter in the proper thread. I'm deleting your last few posts. Everyone has their own opinion whether Irma may or may not be a big deal here. Frankly, no one has a clue yet.

She's looking mighty impressive
Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 22 Symm.PNG.35fe29800625d086afebb66c9073b78f

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 22 Symm.PNG.35fe29800625d086afebb66c9073b78f

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