Tracking Hurricane Irma

WOW 853 MB ON THAT

180 mph and 931 mb at the 11:00 advisory

Irma is now one of 7 hurricanes to have 180+ mph sustained winds

jwalsh wrote:Irma is now one of 7 hurricanes to have 180+ mph sustained winds

ULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA HEADING
TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 58.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES

good lord..

jwalsh wrote:Irma is now one of 7 hurricanes to have 180+ mph sustained winds

The question now becomes how strong can it ultimately become?

Ukie showing the east trend as Frank noted. A pro met said Ukie is best Hcane model to use past day 5, higher skill score. This would spare Fla possibly from a direct hit but still keep Irma over open warm bathtub waters.
NO ONE IS OUT OF THE WOODS ON THIS!

11am

Also worth noting, Jose is now a tropical storm - 40 mph, 1008mb

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=15942.71875&y=7225.3125&z=4&im=30&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=13&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Well time for the GFS, lets see if it follows the ensembles with a more east track

Frank_Wx wrote:11am

Pressures are still dropping. Recon measured 927mb

Further south so far with the 12z GFS, though not by much

Not much difference at hr 84, trough seems to be a little slower to move out though

Definitely a bit east at hr 120 and moving more north, may scrape east coast of Fla

Tropical tidbits just crashed, Levi had a note at the top it may happen.  Is anyone else getting 502 bad gateway?

jmanley32 wrote:Tropical tidbits just crashed, Levi had a note at the top it may happen.  Is anyone else getting 502 bad gateway?

Yes, it's in and out haha

Still just offshore at hr 132, don't think it's made landfall at all yet

Wow 896mb right offshore where my family is, I also have tampa family and daytona, I think they all get hit but man southern east side yikes.  May not weaken to cat 4 as shown.

Riding the coast at hr 138. Looks to be less interaction with that shortwave that RB mentioned earlier, so I would think more north track compared to maybe NW like previous runs

Don't look now going for carolinas, and that water there is a sess pool for extreme development.

A rare GA/SC landfall looks like, now does it ride coast or go west inland.

Much further west at hr 162 and looks to be heading wellinland either W or NW.

Yeah, looks like it still does interact. Well the east trend on the GFS continues. Still a lot of time

CMC is off on its own, south of cuba and 988mb? I think its not only lost but also drunk.

Until we see interactions on Thursday, I think the final track is still throwing darts at the board now.

GFS depicts a very bad scenario. Cat 4/5 storm slowly riding up eastern Florida coast with severe impacts in Georgia and South Carolina also. Alot of densely populated areas affected.