Re: Tracking Hurricane Irma

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:01 pm

destroys nassau, yikes, aweful close to FL. looks NW.

by **Sanchize06** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:02 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Huge north turn at 102

Yep, almost due north now at hr 108

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:03 pm

huge shift east of FL, may be headed further north on EC, carolinas?

by **rb924119** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:03 pm

I hate these models and everything they stand for Ahahahahaha In all seriousness I hope government agents and entities er on the side of caution and dontnwsit for the details of the track to be nailed down because by then it may be too late.

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:10 pm

carolinas incoming 892mb good god!

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:11 pm

rb924119 wrote:I hate these models and everything they stand for Ahahahahaha In all seriousness I hope government agents and entities er on the side of caution and dontnwsit for the details of the track to be nailed down because by then it may be too late.

agreed im ready to almost just do what i used to back in the old days, wait and watch lol

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:15 pm

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:17 pm

Wow huge.. guess that block is still too strong goes NW.

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 31 Gfs_ms24

by **rb924119** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:19 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Wow huge.. guess that block is still too strong goes NW.

This run does erode that block significantly though and Irma almost ends up on its southwestern side lol hope it's just this run because any more progression in that direction and we are in trouble again.

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:22 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Wow huge.. guess that block is still too strong goes NW.

This run does erode that block significantly though and Irma almost ends up on its southwestern side lol hope it's just this run because any more progression in that direction and we are in trouble again.

Honestly thats what I said, such a strong storm, easily could break down a block. Do you buy these sub 900mb numbers, i mean winds at 185 now what would they b 250?

by **Sanchize06** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:27 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Wow huge.. guess that block is still too strong goes NW.

Still so much for the strength of the blocking to change. The ridge in the Atlantic was noticeably weaker than run allowing it to track more north and interaction a bit with the trough sooner. If that continues to be the case and the trough slows down exiting a bit, I don't think it's all that hard for it to be pulled up the coast

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:27 pm

Okay really remnants center due NE into LI, im done lol

by **rb924119** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:30 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Wow huge.. guess that block is still too strong goes NW.

This run does erode that block significantly though and Irma almost ends up on its southwestern side lol hope it's just this run because any more progression in that direction and we are in trouble again.
Honestly thats what I said, such a strong storm, easily could break down a block. Do you buy these sub 900mb numbers, i mean winds at 185 now what would they b 250?

Seeing as though it has dropped at least 40mb in roughly 36 hours, if it can avoid land it only has another 27mb to go with improving conditions. It's not all that far-fetched to say sub-900 is at least plausible. As for wind speeds, it would definitely be over 200.

by **mikeypizano** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:32 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Wow huge.. guess that block is still too strong goes NW.

This run does erode that block significantly though and Irma almost ends up on its southwestern side lol hope it's just this run because any more progression in that direction and we are in trouble again.
Honestly thats what I said, such a strong storm, easily could break down a block. Do you buy these sub 900mb numbers, i mean winds at 185 now what would they b 250?

Seeing as though it has dropped at least 40mb in roughly 36 hours, if it can avoid land it only has another 27mb to go with improving conditions. It's not all that far-fetched to say sub-900 is at least plausible. As for wind speeds, it would definitely be over 200.

Tracking Hurricane Irma - Page 31 Recon_NOAA2-1011A-IRMA

by **rb924119** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:33 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Wow huge.. guess that block is still too strong goes NW.

Still so much for the strength of the blocking to change. The ridge in the Atlantic was noticeably weaker than run allowing it to track more north and interaction a bit with the trough sooner. If that continues to be the case and the trough slows down exiting a bit, I don't think it's all that hard for it to be pulled up the coast

It's not at all. It's not gonna take much to bring back the solutions we were seeing earlier.

by **rb924119** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:35 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Wow huge.. guess that block is still too strong goes NW.

This run does erode that block significantly though and Irma almost ends up on its southwestern side lol hope it's just this run because any more progression in that direction and we are in trouble again.
Honestly thats what I said, such a strong storm, easily could break down a block. Do you buy these sub 900mb numbers, i mean winds at 185 now what would they b 250?

Seeing as though it has dropped at least 40mb in roughly 36 hours, if it can avoid land it only has another 27mb to go with improving conditions. It's not all that far-fetched to say sub-900 is at least plausible. As for wind speeds, it would definitely be over 200.

Correction: 21mb to go ahaha my god

by **mikeypizano** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:36 pm

rb924119 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Wow huge.. guess that block is still too strong goes NW.

This run does erode that block significantly though and Irma almost ends up on its southwestern side lol hope it's just this run because any more progression in that direction and we are in trouble again.
Honestly thats what I said, such a strong storm, easily could break down a block. Do you buy these sub 900mb numbers, i mean winds at 185 now what would they b 250?

Seeing as though it has dropped at least 40mb in roughly 36 hours, if it can avoid land it only has another 27mb to go with improving conditions. It's not all that far-fetched to say sub-900 is at least plausible. As for wind speeds, it would definitely be over 200.

Correction: 21mb to go ahaha my god

And to think that is only ONE pass... It may even be lower... Shocked

by **rb924119** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:38 pm

According to the actual graph it looks like it's down to approximately 917-918mb

by **mikeypizano** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:40 pm

rb924119 wrote:According to the actual graph it looks like it's down to approximately 917-918mb

If this keeps up, I am going to wear the trackpad out on my laptop... affraid

by **rb924119** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:42 pm

mikeypizano wrote:
rb924119 wrote:According to the actual graph it looks like it's down to approximately 917-918mb

If this keeps up, I am going to wear the trackpad out on my laptop...

Truer words have never been spoken lol

by **mikeypizano** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:47 pm

rb924119 wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:
rb924119 wrote:According to the actual graph it looks like it's down to approximately 917-918mb

If this keeps up, I am going to wear the trackpad out on my laptop...

Truer words have never been spoken lol

I sent you a PM

by **lglickman1** Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:58 pm

Most of the graphics being shown in the media shows Irma decreasing in strength as it nears Florida, is that being shown on the current model runs or is it expected to stay as strong as it is now?

by **SoulSingMG** Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:00 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Wow huge.. guess that block is still too strong goes NW.

Still so much for the strength of the blocking to change. The ridge in the Atlantic was noticeably weaker than run allowing it to track more north and interaction a bit with the trough sooner. If that continues to be the case and the trough slows down exiting a bit, I don't think it's all that hard for it to be pulled up the coast

It's not at all. It's not gonna take much to bring back the solutions we were seeing earlier.

Hearing this elsewhere as well after that 18z run. It isn't unusual to have the outcome actually follow suit with one of the earlier runs.... #windshieldwiper

by **Sanchize06** Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:05 pm

Looks like Irma is starting to move more WNW compared to W

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:07 pm

Sanchize06 wrote:Looks like Irma is starting to move more WNW compared to W

I believe its been doing this

by **Sanchize06** Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:09 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:Looks like Irma is starting to move more WNW compared to W

I believe its been doing this

Yeah, maybe the 8pm advisory will finally have it as WNW

by **sroc4** Tue Sep 05, 2017 7:10 pm

rb924119 wrote:According to the actual graph it looks like it's down to approximately 917-918mb

I M G

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