Tracking Hurricane Irma

Until we see interactions on Thursday, I think the final track is still throwing darts at the board now.

GFS depicts a very bad scenario. Cat 4/5 storm slowly riding up eastern Florida coast with severe impacts in Georgia and South Carolina also. Alot of densely populated areas affected.

GFS was very scary for GA/SC, especially SC. Florida would be on the western flank which somewhat minimizes impact but would still be a dangerous storm. The GGEM/UKMET go through Cuba which would dramatically weaken the storm and be best case for Florida. Long way to go still. Every model is showing something different...

In terms of impact for our area...I would not fret (yet)

The ridge over the Northeast should act as a block to keep Irma south of us. Even taking her inland instead of up the coast. Obviously things can change, but a landfall between eastern FL & NC seems most likely with a track due west from there. On this loop you can see the ridge but also how Irma has shifted east in the last 3 GFS cycles. Not sure if this east trend will last, though.

Irma is now at 185 mph...

I have some family down in West Palm Beach. They may have a little fecal matter in their pants right now to say the least lol

Yea me to in West Palm Beach but what timing she is coming to visit me tomorrow. Hope has a home to go back to.

2pm update has Irma at 185 mph - strongest on record for this part of the world



I remain skeptical where Irma eventually tracks. I think out to sea is out of question. Hemispheric set-up supports landfall somewhere over the U.S. What I'm finding is there is a trend for higher heights to build over Texas and across the Plains. Coupled with the weakness in the trough over the Southeast, and trend for a stronger trough over the Northeast, I like the idea of a sharp turn to the north. Question becomes how far west does Irma get before she makes the turn? I honestly do not think anyone can answer this question at this juncture. I think we have to see how Irma progresses over the next couple of days (speed up, slow down, track over Hispaniola/Cuba, etc.) Gun to my head, I actually think she makes significant interaction with Cuba before making the turn north. I also do not think she enters the GOM at any point. She can still emerge from Cuba as a major hurricane so I am not discounting the threat she poses to FL or the SE Coast. Again, that is gun to my head. We'll see where things stand in a couple of days.

I really wish I could go down to FL to ride it out, but I doubt i'd be able to get a flight out on Monday lol

12z GEFS

EURO coming in now. The eye travels through Cuba like the 12z UKMET showed. Cubs gets absolutely destroyed...

Thank you Frank

Does the pressure have any bearing on the track and, if so, how much? I ask because it seems that the model runs are starting off with much higher pressures than Irma is reading. For example, the Euro starts at 962mb when Irma is already in the 920s.

Frank_Wx wrote:2pm update has Irma at 185 mph - strongest on record for this part of the world



I remain skeptical where Irma eventually tracks. I think out to sea is out of question. Hemispheric set-up supports landfall somewhere over the U.S. What I'm finding is there is a trend for higher heights to build over Texas and across the Plains. Coupled with the weakness in the trough over the Southeast, and trend for a stronger trough over the Northeast, I like the idea of a sharp turn to the north. Question becomes how far west does Irma get before she makes the turn? I honestly do not think anyone can answer this question at this juncture. I think we have to see how Irma progresses over the next couple of days (speed up, slow down, track over Hispaniola/Cuba, etc.) Gun to my head, I actually think she makes significant interaction with Cuba before making the turn north. I also do not think she enters the GOM at any point. She can still emerge from Cuba as a major hurricane so I am not discounting the threat she poses to FL or the SE Coast. Again, that is gun to my head. We'll see where things stand in a couple of days.

I agree Frank.  I made very similar points earlier regarding th trends over Tx in a discussion with Ray.  If the SW nose of the Atlantic ridge is over modeled at all a powerful Irma will be feeling for any weakness between the WAR and the Ridging in Tx.  As soon as she feels this weakness she will make that abrupt turn northward.  A fly in the ointment to the final track could be Jose beyond day 4-5.

EURO has Irma making landfall in western FL

Still a near cat 4 landfall around Marco Island, Fl.

Shes coming off the NE Fla Coast it appears

Lets see if in the next few frames Jose creates a Fujiwhara effect and pulls her back off the coast...SE ward

sroc4 wrote:Lets see if in the next few frames Jose creates a Fujiwhara effect and pulls her back off the coast...SE ward

Not on this run, but we have to watch to see if Jose intensifies more than is being modeled, which has been the common theme this entire hurricane season...to under model intensifications of tropical systems once they get going.

EURO track of Irma

Frank, am I looking at this correctly that this would come straight through Orlando?

EURO is a worse situation for Florida as the central and east side of the state would be on the North & East side of the storm. GFS spells deep trouble for South Carolina. Either way, we're looking at a major hurricane making an impact somewhere between FL and SC it appears.

Disneyprincess1592 wrote:Frank, am I looking at this correctly that this would come straight through Orlando?

If EURO is correct then yes it would

12z NAVGEM goes into SE Florida. But the important take away from this image is it gives you a nice look of the High Pressure dominating the Great Lakes region...likely to keep Irma south of our area.

When will we have a better idea of FL impacts? Father in law lives in Fort Myers Beach....about 50 miles north of Marco Island.

From the NHC:

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

sabamfa wrote:When will we have a better idea of FL impacts? Father in law lives in Fort Myers Beach....about 50 miles north of Marco Island.

Thursday

sroc4 wrote:From the NHC:

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

I find this graphic pretty fascinating. It shows all the tracks of Cat 5 hurricanes in history. Theme is almost all miss Cuba.